Saturday, March 07, 2009

Paul Krugman liked Obama's speech to Congress last week

Paul Krugman opens his 02/27/09 New York Times column Climate of Change this way:

Elections have consequences. President Obama’s new budget represents a huge break, not just with the policies of the past eight years, but with policy trends over the past 30 years. If he can get anything like the plan he announced on Thursday through Congress, he will set America on a fundamentally new course.
Sounds like a good plan to me!

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Friday, March 06, 2009

Christian terrorist murders immigrants in Florida, US media yawn


Accused Christian terrorist Dannie Baker, and Chilean murder victims Racín Balbontín Argondoña and Nicolás Pablo Corp Torres

In Spain, when the ETA Basque separatist groups murders someone or sets off a bomb or one of their terrorist strikes gets thwarted, it makes national news. People don't seem to fall down on the ground foaming at the mouth in fear and demanding that their democratic constitution be shredded as the Republicans did during the Cheney-Bush years.

But, as Dave Neiwert discusses in this post, What motivated a Florida gunman to open fire on Latino exchange students? Crooks and Liars 03/04/09, when Christian terrorist attack and kill and injure innocent people, the media have other priorities than looking into it.

The terrorist attack in question occurred last week: Early Morning Shooting Kills 2 Injures 3 in Miramar Beach WJHG.com 02/26-27/09. Dannie Baker a mystery, even to those who met him Northwest Florida Daily News 03/03/09.

Here are some Spanish-language press articles on the shooting:

Homicida de jóvenes chilenos era racista y había amenazado a autoridades Terra.cl 27.02.2009

A través de videoconferencia juez gringo formalizó al Chacal de Pensacola [Via videoconference, an American court formally charged the "Jackal of Pensacola"] La Cuarta (Chile) 05.03.2009

Experto analiza perfil del asesino de Pensacola: “Pudo haberlos culpado de la crisis económica” [Expert analyzes the profil of the murdered of Pensacola: "He could have held us responsible for the economic crisis") Terra.cl 28.02.2009

Gobierno agiliza repatriación de jóvenes muertos en Florida La Nación 28.02.2009

EEUU: un xenófobo mata a dos estudiantes chilenos y hiere a trece más [A xenophobe murders two Chilean students and wounds thirteen others] Diario Los Andes (Argentina) 27.02.2009

There are indications that the suspect, Dannie Baker, has suffered for several years from mental health issues. And as Dave writes:

However, it's a cop-out to simply ascribe this to his illness and let it go at that. Because there is a pattern of "isolated incidents" in which mentally ill people select their victims based on eliminationist scapegoating rhetoric from right-wing ideologues.
Dave's post also discusses an important and difficult issue: the connection between hate rhetoric and actual violence. His Orcinus blogger partner Sara Robinson addressed this subject as well in "Know This If Nothing Else: This Was A Hate Crime" 02/10/09, about the in this case anti-Christian terrorist James Adkisson, who was convicted of opening fire in a Unitarian church in Knoxville TN last year, also killing two people. (This reminds me, I haven't been quoting Sara nearly enough here lately.)

There is a relationship between hate-mongers on TV and radio and actions by rightwing terrorists like Baker and Adkisson. But it's not direct and immediate.

After another rightwing terrorist, then-San Francisco Supervisor Dan White, murdered Harvey Milk and Mayor George Moscone in 1978 and then got off with a mild sentence by a far-fetched psychiatric defense that became known as the "Twinkie defense", then-Governor Jerry Brown got the California Legislature to tighten the laws on the insanity defense. Then after Ronald Reagan got shot in 1981, the federal government and most state governments followed suit.

I certainly wouldn't want terrorist like Baker and Adkisson to be able to get off easy with a new "Twinkie defense". If people are capable of distinguishing right from wrong, they should have to take legal responsibility for their actions. And as an ethical matter, rightwing killers shouldn't be able to blame their actions on Rush Limbaugh or Glenn Beck.

But having said that, looking at the hate mongers themselves, Sara is also right:

Nicely done, Messrs. Hannity, Goldberg, Limbaugh, Savage and O'Reilly -- and all your lesser brethren who keep the hate speech spewing 24/7/365 across every field and into every shop in the country. There is no more debate to be had, no more doubt about it: What you did in the name of "entertainment," and for the sake of the almighty ratings, raised and animated a monster like Jim Adkisson, gave him a list of targets ("the 100 people in Bernard Goldberg's book"), and was directly responsible for the deaths of two brave and decent people. Adkisson was clearly angry and crazy -- but his "manifesto" draws the clearest, brightest line possible between the media he consumed and his actions that terrible Sunday morning.
There's clearly an intermediary social process that goes on, though. Limbaugh and the rest create a frenzied attitude among their followers, who then incorporate their extremist attitudes into their personal exchanges.

And, for guys like Baker and Adkisson, they look and listen and read these mutually-reinforcing opinions and realize - often with some considerable basis in reality - that people will admire them for their actions. And that kind of reinforcement can also coexist with suicidal tendencies or other psychiatric problems.

The media stars like Rush and Michael Savage, or in the case of anti-immigration fanaticism, Lou Dobbs, who do so much to create that social context are not legally culpable for the killings of Baker and Adkisson. But they are responsible for creating a political and social environment in which individuals of that inclination feel themselves encouraged to take action against liberals, or immigrants, or the various other targets of this poisonous outlook.

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Thursday, March 05, 2009

Go South, Republicans!

Gene Lyons shares his view of the Southernization (in the most reactionary sense) of today's Republican Party:

Just once I'd like to see one of these Confederate Republicans acknowledge how much more their states receive from the Treasury than they pay in taxes. (For Louisiana, it's $1.45 for every dollar paid; for Mississippi, $1.77, etc.) But then what's a little hypocrisy among free lunch conservatives? Jindal also mocked an (imaginary) $8 billion earmark for a high-speed railway between Los Angeles and Las Vegas. Then he turned right around and solicited funding for a Baton Rouge-New Orleans line.

Back before free-lunch hypocrisy became gospel, Louisiana had a social structure like Guatemala's-low taxes on the wealthy, a beaten-down middle class and sprawling poverty. Economically, GOP doctrine consists of ignoring the obvious. Show me a low-tax, "pro-business" paradise like the Deep South before World War II, and I'll show you poverty, disease, illiteracy and stagnant opportunity.

Alternatively, try finding a wealthy country anywhere on earth with the economic policies the Jindals, Limbaughs and Huckabees recommend. They simply don't exist. Hence, the current nearhysteria on the right. We haven't seen its like since the 1960s, when many white Southerners panicked over the prospect of racial integration, the John Birch Society flourished, and billboards depicting "Martin Luther King at a Communist training school" lined rural highways. [my emphasis]
This is not just snark. The real-world model for the Ayn Randish, Limbaughist dystopia that is now the Republican vision for the United States is the segregationist governments of the post-Reconstruction Deep South.

The highlighted passage reminds us how its anything but "anti-South" to be concerned about Southern reactionaries like Louisiana's Bobby-the-Exorcist Jindal, Arkansas' Mike Huckabee (lately of FOX News) and Mississippi's Haley Barbour. No one stands to benefit more from Obama's recovery policies and long-term health and economic-development plans. It's a point that the Democrats need to keep pounding by pointing out the positive effects of those programs in the South and keep it constantly in front of the voters that the Barbours and the Jindals actually oppose those beneficial programs.

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Jerry Brown on Ken Starr

California Attorney General Jerry Brown is posting short Facebook comments on the Supreme Court hearing on the anti-gay Proposition 8 today.

A few minutes ago, he posted this comment on the notorious counsel supporting Prop 8 in the case:

Ken Starr says the power of the people includes the right to eliminate free speech under the California constitution.
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Obama and the Establishment press, Weeks 5-6

I'm still surprised at myself that I find questions like the following from Glenn Greenwald sensible: "Is it even theoretically possible to have a worse, more deceitful and more moronic press than the one we have?"

But I do. That's from Glenn's 02/24/09 piece The "Americans want bipartisanship" myth Salon. The Establishment press crew is incredibly fixated on this whole "bipartisanship" fetish. Now, they tend to view bipartisanship as the Democrats bending over backwards to accomodate Republicans. But they can't let go of it, it seems.

Obama's administration is beginning to draw some reporters into sychophants, at least for now. Power has a way of drawing courtiers, especially the enormous power of the American Presidency. The profile of the White House chief of staff in the New Yorker by Ryan Lizza, The Gatekeeper: Rahm Emanuel on the job 03/02/09, is probably the leading example of Obama administration hagiography so far.

This brings up the basic difference between the liberal criticism of the American press and the conservative one. The conservative approach is essentially opposed to the whole concept of journalism. They concentrate on "working the refs", trying to get all news to sounds like the Party propaganda on FOX News. The liberal media criticism, on the other hand, is aimed at getting journalists to do their jobs as journalists and taking a healthy, skeptical attitude toward power. Including Democrats and liberals.

As a partisan matter, Democrats of course will try to cultivate the press. And if they find adoring, cooperative reporters, they will generally try to maximize that benefit.

This is why Democrats and liberals/progressives should be viewing Obama administration hagiography with some critical distance. Just because major reporters and Big Pundits start pandering to some extent to the current occupant of the White House doesn't mean that the actual quality of their reporting has improved. And the media dysfunctions tends very much to favor Republican and conservative rather than progressive causes and interests. Even now, some of the media praise for Obama is based on the assumption that he will stand up the "the left" and those nasty hippie bloggers and such in the name of sacred bipartisanship. That kind of "good press" is very much a mixed blessing.

Robert Perry, one of the pioneers of online reporting, makes the argument in The American Media Misdiagnosis ConsortiumNews.com 03/02/09 that the major newspapers' financial troubles relates in signficant part to the long-term decline in quality of their news reporting. I think there's a lot to this.

At the Web-only "Take Two" segment of Meet the Press for 03/01/09, David Gregory quizzed Dee Dee Myers about the current White House press secretary. Myers was formerly Bill Clinton's press secretary and is now with Vanity Fair; in that segment she looks a lot like Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni (starts around 6:30 in the video). The excerpt is really amazing - if you assume that journalists should be in the news business as distinct from the infotainment business:

GREGORY: Dee Dee, this one is for you, and it's from Daniel Conklin, who writes, "Ask Dee Dee Myers how well Robert Gibbs is doing as press secretary. How hard is it to maintain, uh, continuity with the President when he is speaking in front of the cameras as much or more than his press secretary?" This is a good question.

MYERS: Hunh! Well, first of all, I think Robert Gibbs is doing a terrific job. He has two, I think, primary assets. One is that he's unflappable in the briefing room. He's, you know, he slows the game down, he's not easily ruffled, doesn't make any big mistakes.

But more importantly, he has a very close relationship with the President and everybody knows it. Which means two things. One, he's in the loop. And, two, he controo-ools access both information and interviews and all of that to the President. And so everyone in the briefing room takes what he says seriously and they also don't wanna mess with him. Uh-

GREGORY: It's so important. It's so good for the press corps and so good for the country to have a vary strong press secretary.

MYERS: Exactly. And I think he's as powerful as any new press secretary probably in the historty of the country because of that relationship. [my emphasis i n bold]
And none of the high-end "journalists" in the segment seem the slightest bit embarassed at this explanation that they would be reluctant to antagonize the President's press secretary because the press secretary has such great influence over their precious "access".

Gregory gushes over the thought: "It's so good for the press corps and so good for the country ..." For our Big Pundits, the two parts of this sentence are redundant. They assume that what's "good for the press corps" is "good for the country".

But will the national press as a whole be so fawning for the Democratic President as they were toward Bush and Cheney? That remains to be seen. Certainly we've seen some kissing up to the new power in town already. Jim Lehrer's softball interview with Obama on the PBS Newshour for 02/27/09 is a good example of this.

Of course, it should be assumed by all sides that the administration will try to take advantage of this inclination to deference toward the White House press secretary.

But if we had a healthy national political press in the United States, it would also be assumed on all sides that self-respecting reporters would try not to fall for that White House game. During either a Democratic or a Republican administration.

Instead, we have a press corps for which a situation in which the White House press corps "don't wanna mess with" the press secretary is considered "so good for the press corps and so good for the country". Sad. Very sad.

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Tuesday, March 03, 2009

Brother Al endorses atheist position


Charles Darwin, 1854

No, Brother Al hasn't declared himself an atheist. But he does agree with the "village atheist" notion that you can't believe in God and also acknowledge biological evolution (Evolution and Christianity Impossible to Reconcile, Says Evangelical Theologian by Katherine T. Phan Christian Post 02/15/09):

"If you understand Christianity or even Theism – the belief of a sovereign creator God – and evolutionary theory in its dominant form, I find it impossible to reconcile the two," Dr. R. Albert Mohler Jr., president of Southern Baptist Theological Seminary, said on his radio program Thursday, the 200th birthday anniversary of Charles Darwin.

While the Bible doesn't explain all the mechanisms God used to create the world, it gives believers many non-negotiables about what that creation is, who is behind it, and for what purpose it was created, said Mohler on "The Albert Mohler Program". ...

Whereas the Biblical account of creation accepts the role of a Creator, the theory of evolution "suggests that natural selection is indeed the mechanism and that it is entirely natural and in no case supernatural," said the theologian.

"There is no way for God to intervene in the process and for it to remain natural," he asserted.
This is evidently the broadcast: Charles Darwin and the Modern Mind 02/12/09. In a blog post of the same title and date, Brother Al links to various of his polemics against natural selection ("Darwinian" evolution). He returns to the subject against in a blog post of 02/16/09, Christianity and Evolution -- Seeing the Problem.

Brother Al doesn't really grapple with the fact that there actually are many people who do believe in God and adhere to the Christian religion and don't have a problem recognizing the evidence of evolution by natural selection. Although he does take note of arguments by the late Stephen Jay Gould and a Pastor Harry Brinton that the two are different categories, "non-overlapping magisteria" in Gould's formulation.

Evolution was never the agonizing problem for Catholic theology that it still is for fundamentalist Protestants. In fact, the Vatican is currently holding a five-day conference on Darwin to discuss his theories and to emphasize their compatibility with Christian teaching (Vatican hosts Darwin conference by David Willey BBC News 03/03/09).

As Willey's article points out, there have been traditionalist Catholics who took a different position. He cites one example I find particularly regrettable:

But the Catholic Church never condemned Darwin, as it condemned and silenced Galileo. ...

Yet as recently as 2006 a leading Catholic Cardinal, Christoff Schoenborn, of Vienna, a former student and friend of Pope Benedict XVI caused controversy by saying that Darwin's theory of natural selection was incompatible with Christian belief.
Cardinal Schönborn, when he became the Archbishop of Vienna, was seen as a possibly more moderate candidate for the papacy. It's too bad to see him adopt such a reactionary, anti-science position. The Church did make it clear that Schönborn's position was not an official Church position.

In connection with the Vatican conference, San Francisco's former Archbishop and now Cardinal William Levada, currently head of the Congregation for the Doctrine of the Faith (formerly the Holy Office, aka, the Inquisition), stated explicitly that scientific evolution is compatible with Christianity.

Phan's Christian Post article describes the Catholic position as "theistic evolution". Brother Al doesn't accept it:

... he firmly rejected theistic evolution.

"God was not merely fashioning the creation of what was already pre-existent, nor was He merely working with a process in order to guide it in some generalized way, nor was He waiting to see how it would turn out," said Mohler.

"As Genesis indicates, He created the world in order that the world might be the theater of His glory for the demonstration of the Gospel of Christ and He created human beings as the only beings made in His image, as His covenant partner," the Protestant theologian explained.
Yet Brother Al himself finds it hard not to display an obvious problem with this Bible-as-science-textbook approach:

Although Mohler said he rejected evolution as a way to explain the origin of all things, he acknowledged that there are changes in animals that take place over time.

"No Conservative Christian should deny there is a process of change that is evident within the animal kingdom. And there is even a process of natural selection that appears at least to be natural," he said, adding all one has to do is look at a herd of cattle to find evidence of adaptation and a competition of genes.
Natural selection is the process of evolution. And if "natural selection ... appears at least to be natural", how can Brother Al say he doesn't accept evolution and that it's incompatible with the Christian faith? He even says that no conservative Christian should deny natural selection.

This is the kind of mind-numbing sophistry to which fundamentalist anti-evolution thinking leads. Catholics save a lot of headaches by sticking to the formula that I'm told goes back to St. Augustine, that the Bible is meant to teach us how to go to heaven, not how the heavens go. Or, in other words, it ain't a science textbook!

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Monday, March 02, 2009

Obama's administration, the early days; Or, how the press corps will kill democracy


Please, great lord, don't go on new travels: we courtiers must have someone to whom we can pay court around the clock

Elizabeth Drew is one of the better journalists among the Establishment press. (Not to damn her with faint praise!) And she has a piece in the upcoming New York Review of Books that's worth reading: The Thirty Days of Barack Obama 02/25/09 (03/26/09 issue).

This is a decent analysis of the attitude of the House Republicans at the start of the new Obama administration:

The most important problem that Obama and his aides weren't prepared for was the degree to which the Republicans would oppose him. In part, this was circumstantial: the first major bill to test the President's stated desire for bipartisanship was on the subject that arouses the most partisanship: taxing and spending. The Democrats were bent on using the opportunity of the stimulus bill to expand or create as many domestic programs as they could. Against the evidence of the past eight years, the Republicans remained wedded to tax cuts as the way to stimulate the economy. To some extent, Obama set himself up by calling for bipartisanship—especially on this subject. He was acting on his campaign pledge to "change the ways of Washington," or "end the partisan wrangling," which didn't necessarily mean winning bipartisan support for every bill.

The House Republicans, greatly reduced by the 2006 and 2008 elections, were now as a whole more conservative than they've been in a generation—moderate Republicans having been reduced to a mere dozen or so. There were signs from the outset that the Republicans had no intention of cooperating with Obama. Lacking the leverage to affect policy, or the votes sufficient to defeat Obama's stimulus plan, they could do what they wanted, however short-sighted, without being saddled with responsibility for killing it. Moreover, they concluded from their losses in 2008 that they hadn't been conservative enough; they had come under a great deal of criticism for having presided over too much spending.
But then she proceeds to write a strange story interwoven with her account of recent events.

Democrats in Congress, she tells us, weren't in the mood to be "bipartisan" much more than the Republicans were? Really? Dang, lots of us hippie bloggers thought they were way too ready to accommodate obstructionist Republicans, especially in the Senate.

Drew repeats a Republican talking point here about that mean old Nancy Pelosi, in wording that implies without saying so that the charge was correct:

The House has been particularly polarized for decades: when each party gains the majority, it takes revenge for having been, as they see it, mistreated by the other. Since House Speaker Nancy Pelosi was rushing the bill through the House, it was easy for Republican leaders to get their followers worked up against it.
But the part about the Democrats being eager to take revenge on the other side, I guess that must have played out in some other world to which she has access. Shoot, I bet in that world the Dems even made Joe Lieberman beg and plead to be accepted back into the Democratic fold under humiliating conditions! Things played out a little differently in this world, though.

Here's another combination of good analysis ...

This should have signaled to the White House what was to come. The Republicans in Congress do not want Obama to be a successful president, perhaps dooming their party to minority status for quite a while. And Obama sought Republican support for his bill not solely out of an idealistic desire for bipartisanship itself, but for pragmatic reasons as well: he wanted "cover"—as politicians often do in order to claim broad (however defined) support for their initiatives, especially controversial ones. The Republicans understood this, and they had no interest in helping him out.
... followed up with a standard Pod Pundit assumption that because they themselves are devoted to the High Broderist ideal of sweet bipartisanship, the American people must be similarly inclined:

But Obama also knew that his elaborate courtesies to the Republicans—meeting with them, having them over for cocktail parties and the Super Bowl—looked good to voters. In doing these things, he was talking to the greater public.
Actually, in this world, it's more likely that he was talking to the Beltway Village, where David Broder is considered a font of wisdom. And possibly following his own inclinations to build the widest possible coalition and disarm potential adversaries, if possible.

But in PunditWorld, it's because he was playing to the desires of conformist Villagers the American public.

She offers this bit of shaky economic analysis:

Economists have debated for years over the extent to which infrastructure projects stimulate the economy, partly because such projects can take many months to get underway, partly because of government regulations. But the country badly needs to improve bridges, roads, and dams, and eventually there are solid objects to show for this investment. While their stimulative effect may be spread out—as the projects take time to complete—it's also deemed important to prevent an "air pocket" at the end of two years, when people are out of work again.
Actually, states and localities were suspending projects already under way and postponing others that were in an advanced stage of planning. The infrastructure money allows many of those to go forward immediately.

Her general summary of the Recovery Act wasn't too bad by Village standards, though. Again, faint praise, but credit where credit is due.

But Drew disappointingly repeated one of the dumber pieces of neglect of which her fellow journalists were guilty. She describes how the bill was cut from $825 billion to $787 billion. Watch what comes after:

Specter insisted that the final bill go no higher than $789 billion (later adjusted to $787 billion), even as he demanded $6.5 million more for cancer research (Specter has cancer). Thus, most unusually, the final amount was less than that voted for in either the Senate or the House (who normally compromise their differences in a final bill). Obama got about as much money for the stimulus bill as the political traffic would bear. [my emphasis]
Our press corps was apparently so bored with all these budget numbers - or so lacking in ability to understand them - that most of them didn't seem to find it odd that the House had a higher amount when they first passed the bill, the Senate passed a lower amount, and the final compromise bill that was negotiated was even smaller. Drew at least managed to notice in passing that this was at least a bit out of the ordinary: the two Houses "normally compromise their differences in a final bill", she writes. But she didn't feel moved to actually explain that quite unusual circumstance to us in this important case.

Now this is an interesting series of judgments and assumptions:

A highly troubling result of the fight over the stimulus bill is that it could make getting another one - which might well be needed - through Congress extremely difficult. To show fiscal prudence, while the stimulus bill was being considered, Obama announced he'd hold a "fiscal responsibility summit" and would take on the problem of entitlements. (Later, he proposed to cut the budget deficit in half in four years, in part by winding down the war in Iraq and in part by allowing Bush's tax cuts for the wealthy to expire in 2011. None of this will be easy.) His address on February 24 mixed a stern reckoning of the failures of responsibility that had led the country to "difficult and uncertain times" with a call "to act boldly and wisely." His agenda included a program of caps on carbon pollution and more investment in alternative sources of energy; health care reform (but not universal coverage); a call for at least one year of higher education for everyone; and rewards for teacher performance (highly controversial in his own party).
In his joint address to Congress on February 24, Obama said:

This budget builds on these reforms. It includes an historic commitment to comprehensive health care reform – a down-payment on the principle that we must have quality, affordable health care for every American.
And he mentioned health care several other times during that speech. Not once did he specify it wouldn't be a universal health care plan. He did make that case during the campaign. But not in that speech, and I've seen at least one report suggesting he may go for universal coverage, after all.

But by Drew's Beltway Village reckoning, the fact that Obama got an historic recovery bill passed by Congress, a very expensive one, passed in record time, with substantial majorities in both Houses, and opinion polls showed high approval of him and his recovery bill: this will make it harder for him to pass further stimulus measures!

And, like the other Villagers, she's convinced there's a "growing populist sentiment gripping the country, with many complaining that people who made bad deals shouldn't be bailed out", without bothering to adduce any actual evidence for it. But for the press elite, Rick Santelli mouthing off on CNBC is evidence enough of a populist revolt against Obama and in favor of the plutocrats. Or something like that.

This is a real Heatherish observation:

But one of the conclusions that he and his aides reached after the early, bumpy days was that he should go out on the road more. This is a typical reaction on the part of a president's aides: show him relating to "the people," get outside "the Beltway chatter." Presidents need to maintain popular support in order to get things done, and they draw sustenance from the cheering crowds; it's much more enjoyable than governing.
The idea that actually going out and interacting with groups of the public not screened to be Potemkin events - like most of Bush's were - is actually a part of governing seems not to have occurred to her. He must be doing it because it's more fun.

And she even concludes by scolding Obama for not staying in the Beltway Village nearly enough!

The recent increased amount of presidential travel—to Indiana, Florida, Arizona, and Colorado—may have been another indication that Obama was not particularly happy in the White House, and that 2012 election politics were already on his and his aides' minds. John Dickerson, of Slate, said on Washington Week in Review on February 13 that the President's aides had concluded that it hadn't been helpful for Obama to be seen participating in the give-and-take of Washington, that "that's not what he was elected to do." Yes it is. [my emphasis]
Establishment journalists and pundits luu-uuv talking about the horse race. They're ready to handicap the 2012 Presidential race already.

And this isn't FOX News. It's the New York [Cheney]ing Review of Books! Which is one of my favorite magazines and runs some excellent articles. But here's Elizabeth Drew, tutting and sniffing that Obama isn't staying around the palace attending to his courtiers nearly enough.

This is the kind of drivel we get from even the best of the best of our Establishment press. We can only hope a new and more responsible generations of real journalists take over the business before democracy dies from lack of basic news being provided to the voters.

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Obama's Iraq War exit plan


When will peace come to Iraq? (The photo is of a destroyed French village in the First World War)

Juan Cole, who has consistently been one of the best commentators on the Iraq War - he's an expert on Shi'a Islam and actually know Arabic and Persian - writes about Obama's exit plan announced last week in We're really leaving Iraq Salon 03/03/09.

He's basically pretty positive about Obama's exit plan:

Obama cannot afford to make his calculations about Iraq solely with an eye to domestic American politics. He extended his original proposal of a 16-month withdrawal of active combat brigades to 18 months so as to leave more troops in place to help with the next Iraqi parliamentary elections, scheduled for December 2009. It is ... the case that Iraqi elections can still only go forward if the country is locked down and vehicular traffic forbidden, preventing car-bombings and coordinated guerrilla strikes. It might be possible for the Iraqi military to provide security for national elections in 2013 should the country's future ruler or rulers deign to hold them, but the Iraqi military cannot hope to do so this year.
Just to be clear, I would have preferred a rapid drawdown on something like a one-year schedule. The presence of American troops is in itself a major risk of the fighting escalating.

I'm not trashing Obama's plan at the moment. But I'm still going to take a very skeptical view of that situation. For one thing - a major thing - it's to some extent a rhetorical trick to call the 50,000 troops he plans to have there after August 2010 "non-combat" troops. All the troops there are in a real practical sense potential combat troops.

But the momentum is in the right direction. The Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) requires that all US ground troops by out by 2011. And Obama specifically reaffirmed that he intended to abide by that commitment. Prime Minister al-Maliki achieved new popularity with the SOFA because it gets the US troops out. There is still a national referendum coming on the SOFA, which will create even more political pressure in Iraq for the US to exist completely. With the prospect of a less hostile relationship to the US, Iran also has incentive for the moment to discourage any escalation in violence in Iraq against the US and to see the SOFA withdrawal schedule observed.

The Cheney-Bush administration never built up more than a rudimentary Iraqi air force. So building up a minimal air force for normal national defense creates a dependence and need for US assistance in that regard. Cole writes:

Iraq's military also continues to need logistical support from U.S. forces. ...

Although Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki has had military successes during the past year, in the southern port of Basra and in Sadr City (east Baghdad), against the Mahdi Army militia, these campaigns depended heavily on U.S. close air support. Iraq lacks an air force and it will take years to create one. One caveat about Obama's pledge to remove troops by the end of 2011 is that he cannot possibly be including the U.S. Air Force, which is almost certainly in for a longer mission, but can operate from bases outside Iraq. Without a navy, moreover, Iraq cannot prevent petroleum smuggling via the Persian Gulf, which drains billions from government coffers annually and strengthens militias against the state, and this sort of patrol will fall to the U.S. Navy for some time to come.
All of this reflects the fact that Cheney and Bush intended for Iraq to be a permanent US military base.

But it also repeats in a significant way the situation in Vietnam after the Paris Peace Accords were signed in 1973. The US had trained a massive South Vietnamese Army. But it trained them on American conventional-war approaches, which relied heavily on close-air support, which they proved not capable of providing on their own to anything like the level needed. I haven't encountered much if any commentary on that similarity. But it's there.

I hope Cole's optimism in his conclusion turns out to be justified:

It would be wrong to overlook these simple words: "And under the Status of Forces Agreement with the Iraqi government, I intend to remove all U.S. troops from Iraq by the end of 2011." Though the word "troops" referred to the Army and the Marines, not to the Air Force and Navy, what Obama said on Friday was a firm pledge to leave. And by binding himself to a security agreement formally passed by the Iraqi parliament, Obama was eschewing unilateralism and the patronizing hubris that marked Bush's discourse on Iraq. The Iraqi and Arab press understood this point immediately, and led their accounts of Obama's speech with that sentence abour [sic] removing troops. Obama was not signaling any diffidence about ending the Iraq War before the end of his [first] term. He was attempting to provide for an orderly withdrawal that will ensure that U.S. troops are not drawn back in by a subsequent security collapse. [my emphasis]
For other views on Obama's withdrawal plan, see also:

Partial Peace, Looming War by Tom Hayden The Nation Online 03/01/09. Hayden points out how off-base New York Times reporter Tom Ricks was in his prediction that Obama would plan to hold some kind of permanent residual force in Iraq. Like Juan Cole, Hayden focuses on Obama's commitment to observe the SOFA deadline:

When there was a choice [in 2008] between supporting Barack Obama and attending rallies organized by various Maoists, Trotskyists and neo-anarchists opposed to Obama and electoral politics, the grassroots peace movement headed for the precincts by the thousands. What appeared to Ricks to be a failed antiwar rally in Washington was only evidence that the movement was moving on, becoming a voting force in and around the Obama campaign.

That turned out to be the right strategy for the peace movement when John McCain was defeated in November, but many continued to wonder--with good reason--whether Obama was promising nothing more than partial peace under a new form of military occupation. Now it is clear that somewhere along the way Obama became persuaded that it made little sense to leave 50,000 troops in Iraq when the Pentagon couldn't win with 150,000, the American economy was collapsing and his hands were full in Afghanistan and Pakistan. [my emphasis]
Unlike the Pod Pundits, who see Obama's withdrawal plan as a sign of his standing up against "the left", Hayden - who is generally considered a figure of "the left" - writes, "The greater danger from Iraq for Obama may lie at home politically if Republicans and the generals, echoed by the mainstream media, protest Obama's withdrawal plan as naïve or worse."

War critic Bob Dreyfuss, writing also at The Nation Online, takes a more dour view in Obama's Iraq Plan Ain't It 02/27/09.

The invaluable Gareth Porter reports on Obama's plan in Drawdown Plan May Leave Combat Brigades in Iraq Inter Press Service 02/27/09:

Obama's claim that the U.S. combat mission will end in August 2010 raises the question whether he will call a halt to combat patrols by U.S. personnel embedded with Iraqi units. The sweeping concession made to CENTCOM commander Gen. David Petraeus and Iraq commander Gen. Odierno on the residual force suggests that he will not demand the end of such operations by U.S. troops.

The freedom granted to Odierno and Petraeus on the residual force overshadows his concession to the generals and Gates in accepting the recommendation for 19-month timetable for withdrawing combat brigades.
Former Sen. George McGovern favors a faster withdrawal, as reported in McGovern: Troops Should Come Home This Year Keloland.com 02/27/09:

"I give the President credit for setting a date certain, that's something the previous administration would not do," McGovern said.

But McGovern says waiting 18 months to pull thousands of troops out of Iraq isn't something this country can afford.

"I think we ought to recognize this is a mistake and then cut our losses. I don't mean just race for the border. I mean we should be out of there by September this year not September next year," McGovern said.

And the former Senator doesn't think 50 thousand troops should be left behind to train the Iraqi forces.

"We can't control events in the troubled Middle East. Everybody that's tried to do that has ended up with blood on their hands, blood on the receiving country's hands, and without a clear cut victory," McGovern said.
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Sunday, March 01, 2009

Austrian state (provincial) elections


Austrian Social Democratic Business Director Laura Rudas: says her party held its own in Salzburg but is in real trouble in Carinthia

There were elections in the Austrian states of Kärnten (Carinthia) and Salzburg on Sunday. The results were surprising.

Sources from Der Standard (Vienna)01.03.2009:

Erdrutschsieg für BZÖ, Debakel für SPÖ, FPÖ nicht im Landtag

Landtagwahl Kärnten 2009

SPÖ trotz Verlusten vor ÖVP, starker Zugewinn für FPÖ

Landtagwahl Salzburg

A bit of background. The two main parties in Austria since the Second World War have been the Social Democratic Party (SPÖ) and the People's Party (ÖVP), the latter being the Christian Democratic Party. The leading third party has been the Freedom Party (FPÖ), which was once considered a liberal party in the European sense of "liberal", as represented by the Liberal International (LI). The FPÖ got kicked out of the LI after the leadership was assumed by Jörg Haider in 1986, who took the party in a much more rightwing direction.

Haider gained international notoriety as the most successful practitioner of what was often called "yuppie fascism". Although I think Haider would have liked to have been a new Mussolini or Engelbert Dollfuss or Kurt Schuschnigg, it's not that all the party base understood the party in that sense.

And Haider himself seems to have been less of an aspiring Mussolini than a rightwing narcissist who especially enjoyed seeing himself on TV. He split from his FPÖ in 2005 and founded a new political vehicle for himself the Bündnis Zukunft Österreich (BZÖ), the Austrian Alliance for the Future.

Haider died last fall in an auto crash after getting drunk at a gay bar in Klagenfurt, the capital city of Carinthia. Haider had not been openly gay and was married to a woman and had children. As controversial as Haider was, it's surprising that his gay or bisexual practices hadn't become a topic of public polemics. Because he didn't seem to have worked terribly hard at keeping it a secret.

The BZÖ and the FPÖ have competed for far-right, xenophobic vote since then. Haider, who continued as governor (Landeshauptmann) for Carinthia, gave the BZÖ more of a middle-brow, yuppie-fascist imprint, while FPÖ used more down-and-dirty demagoguery.

What was very surprising in Sunday's election was how strongly the BZÖ performed. Given how Americans are tempted to process political events in Austria and Germany, I should emphasize that this does not mean that a new Nazi movement is in full swing. Austria would have a long way to go before it even reached the levels of anti-democratic practice that were standard under Dick Cheney and George Bush.

As of this writing, Der Standard is reporting the following results for the Carinthian election, with 4.0% required to get representation in the Landtag (state parliament): BZÖ, 46%; SPÖ, 29%; ÖVP, 17%; Greens, 5%; and, FPÖ, just under 4%. This is a huge increase in the vote for the BZÖ and a huge defeat for the FPÖ. The Social Democrats lost nearly 10% of their voters compared to the 2004 elections; the Christian Democrats gained almost 5% over 2004 but still came in third. The only likely coalitions that I could see coming out of those numbers would be an "orange-black" (BZÖ/ÖVP) government, or a "red-black-green" (SPÖ/ÖVP/Green) version.

In Salzburg, also according to Der Standard as of this writing, the SPÖ remains the largest party at 40% though with a 6% decline from 2004; ÖVP, 36%; FPÖ, 13%; Greens, 7%; and, BZÖ, under 4%. Probably only a Grand Coalition (SPÖ/ÖVP) could be formed from those results. The most notable thing about the voting trends is the movement of some voters from the SPÖ and ÖVP to FPÖ and BZÖ. I haven't seen the detailed breakdowns, but that can also mean that voters shifted from the Greens to the SPÖ and from the SPÖ to the ÖVP, and others from the ÖVP to the FPÖ and BZÖ. But the two rightwing parties, FPÖ and BZÖ, do sometimes directly pull previous Social Democratic voters.

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Brother Al, Britney, and separation of church and state


Getting a piece of what you want (non-gratuitous picture of Britney)

Our old friend Brother Al (Albert Mohler) is shocked at a news report that Obama requires public prayers offered at his events to have their texts approved beforehand.

In This Prayer Approved by the White House? 02/27/09, he refers to this story: A New Tradition for Obama's Presidential Events: Opening With a Prayer by Dan Gilgoff US News & World Report Online 02/24/09.

Brother Al finds this "ominous and troubling".

Uh, Brother Al. Isn't this what all you folks from the Christian Right wanted, to have politics and government and religion merged? Did you think that the influence was only going to go one way, from Church to State and not the other way?

And I seem to recall that there was some discussion last year about a very, very scary black minister who had been the pastor at Obama's church in Chicago for years. Gee, you reckon any of that controversy might have made Obama and his team concerned about the potential for trouble over something a minister might say in a prayer at an Obama event?

I know Brother Al is the president of the flagship seminary of the Southern Baptist Convention and all. But maybe he needs to brush up on why Baptists in the US for most of their history were pretty insistent on separation of church and state.

Brother Al even finds himself in agreement with a man who is usually regarded by the Christian Right as a howling banshee from Hail:

Barry W. Lynn, executive director of Americans United for Separation of Church and State, offered a most interesting response to the revelation that the Obama White House is vetting prayers: "The only thing worse than having these prayers in the first place is to have them vetted, because it entangles the White House in core theological matters."

An ardent and radical Church/State separationist, Barry Lynn has argued that no prayers at government-sponsored events or ceremonies should be delivered, citing both constitutional and theological reservations. I rarely find myself in agreement with Barry Lynn, but I am with him on this issue -- at least with respect to his argument that this practice "entangles the White House in core theological matters."

Of course it does. When a White House approves or edits prayers, it has entered theological territory and takes on a theological function. The President of the United States is our Commander in Chief, not our Theologian in Chief. [my emphasis]
Say, Brother Al, maybe you should check out the Constitution of the United States again, too. It says right there in plain English in Article II, Section 2: "The President shall be Commander in Chief of the Army and Navy of the United States, and of the Militia of the several States, when called into the actual Service of the United States."

The President is the Commander-in-Chief of soldiers on active duty. He's not my Commander-in-Chief. He's not Brother Al's, either, unless he's on active duty in the military. Which would probably be a big relief for Brother Al to realize.

Not having the President pose as "Theologian in Chief" was a big reason why the first Congress passed the Bill of Rights, with the first words of the First Amendment reading, "Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof".

The Founders in the first Congress were the same distance in time from the Thirty Years War (1618-1648) as we today are from the US Civil War (1860-1865). The Thirty Years War had been largely (though not exclusively) a big, bloody war of Protestant kingdoms and principalities against Catholic ones. It was by far the worst war in Europe prior to the First World War. It came in the century after the Protestant Reformation occurred, which swiftly led to what historians call the Wars of Religion in the 16th century.

So the Founders were intensely aware of the great harm that institutionally mixing religion and politics could cause.

Some European democracies like Britain still have either established churches or formal institutional agreements with churches. Some of those situations might make worthwhile study for Brother Al, too. The British Parliament sometimes finds itself debating internal affairs of the Church of England. The Government of Austria has the right under their formal agreement with the Catholic Church to veto any appointment of a bishop in Austria of which they disapprove.

You don't have to look at wars, Brother Al, to see ways that mixing church and state can get very inconvenient for churches as well as the state.

A couple of other things are worth point out about this issue.

Dan Gilgoff reported on three cases of ministers who had their prayers pre-approved by the Obama White House. "None of the three invocation givers at Obama's presidential events, who were put in touch with the White House by local political operatives and elected officials, said they were asked to change their prayers after vetting."

So apparently Obama isn't rewriting the Christian Bible quite yet.

Brother Al also specifically called attention to the experience of a minister in Ft. Myers, FL. From Gilgoff's account:

During Obama's recent visit to Fort Myers, Fla., to promote his economic stimulus plan, a black Baptist preacher delivered a prayer that carefully avoided mentioning Jesus, lest he offend anyone in the audience. ...

James Bing, the pastor of the Friendship Baptist Church in Fort Myers, Fla., said he chose to self-censor his prayer. "For some strange reason, the word Jesus is like pouring gasoline on fire for some people in this country," he said. "You learn how to work around that."
Like maybe the large Jewish population in Florida?

I don't see anything wrong with a Christian minister making a prayer at a secular public event non-sectarian. Even though Brother Al and Pastor Bing grump that "some people in this country" [nudge-nudge, wink-wink] don't approve it.

Maybe Brother Al could also listen to Britney Spears song, "Are You Sure You Want A Piece of Me?" When the church gets a piece of the state, that can have some of those "unanticipated consequences" about which conservatives worry so much when a social program is up for debate. (Not so much when a war of choice in Iraq was under debate.)

But then the fundis have never forgiven poor Britney for auditioning at Jive Records years ago using the song "Jesus Loves Me."

So I know Bruce Springsteen isn't a Baptist preacher, either. But his song "With Every Wish" might make valuable listening for Brother Al:

Before you choose your wish you better think first
'Cause with every wish there comes a curse
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