Friday, October 31, 2014

Israel, the US, Palestinians and Iran

Mitchell Plitnick grumbles about the focus on an anonymous American official's "chickens**t" comment about Israel's Bibi Netanyahu. (Netanyahu and Obama: Name-Calling and its Discontents LobeLog Foreign Policy 10/31/2014) He then proceeds to use it repeatedly himself in his article.

Plitnick isn't just tossing around insults, though. He's making an informed evaluation of the leadership style of Obama and Netanyahu. And he emphasizes that the real problem between the US and Israel is not the personalities of their leaders, but rather real differences in interests and policies. He also makes this useful observation about how that affects the options for American leaders:

[Obama] is a president with a non-confrontational style trying to govern with what is, arguably, the most defiant and combative Congress any president has ever had to deal with. And he is dealing with an Israeli government that is pursuing a very different strategy than its predecessors. The Israel of today no longer cares about the majority of the Jewish community in the United States. This Israel, correctly, determined that its ultimate desire to completely thwart a two-state solution and maintain an apartheid system over the Palestinians would never be acceptable to most American Jews. But most US Jews weren’t the ones providing the political power and, more importantly, the funding for congressional campaigns and for settlements in the West Bank.

The Jews that do provide these things, as well as the Christians, are right-wingers, either in their general politics or at least on Middle East policy (including policy toward the entire Arab world, Iran and Turkey). They are now the only ones Israel cares about. More liberal-minded devotees are not, at this stage, providing that much support for Israel, either economically or financially. Those of them who do provide this support will continue to check their otherwise liberal values at the Israeli door. The rest are not, in the estimate of the Netanyahu government, worth the compromises that must be made to garner their support. [my emphasis]
Plitnick cites this news report by Ron Ben-Yishai, Easing Gaza restrictions is the new two-state solution Ynet 10/11/2014 about current Israeli-Egyptian plans for keeping a lid on the Palestinians. He doesn't think it's like to succeed. But he emphasizes that the Obama Administration is supporting that effort:

This seems like another doomed plan, one that harkens back to old Israeli beliefs that Palestinian nationalism will eventually just go away. But we must recognize that this is happening with the silent approval of the United States. Egypt, in particular, would not work with Israel on such a plan if it believed that the United States would object. More to the point, the plan is also intended to provide the US with what it wants most: Palestinian silence. What American policy has always represented is the complete lack of importance placed on the welfare of the Palestinians, or anyone else (including ordinary Israelis) in the region, for that matter. The entire issue is only relevant insofar as it affects more “important” US concerns.

So, the Obama administration will likely allow Israel to proceed with its plans, even if it doesn’t believe those plans are likely to succeed. This is evident in the lack of material response to Israel’s direct challenge to the international consensus on a two-state solution. [my emphasis]
Even if he's overstating the case on American indifference to the fate of the Palestinians, his argument that the immediate point of greatest tension between the two countries is Iran is plausible:

If Congress persists in pressuring the administration on its Iran policy, a pressure which most understand as directed by Jerusalem, Obama may well respond through the Palestinian issue. In that case, we might see a more direct counter to Israeli policies, such as a Security Council resolution condemning the settlements or even an “Obama Plan” basing a two-state solution on the 1967 borders and sharing Jerusalem. That would be a turn of events not seen in decades, but Israel has also never worked so hard to undermine US goals on foreign policy matters as it has on Iran. [my emphasis]

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