California Recall

The recall is an attempted political coup by the Republicans. Increasingly, that party's authoritarian tendencies - as embodied by people like Tom DeLay and John Ashcroft - makes them increasingly unwilling to accept the results of democratic elections.

Because the recall is such an unusual event, the public opinion polls are not as reliable a guide to the position of candidates as in a general election. For one thing, predicting the likely voters is more of a challenge.

My own position on the recall is NO.

In prediction mode, it seems to me that the numbers give Davis and Cruz Bustamonte a big advantage, despite "Ahnie's" high name recognition and novelty appeal. The Democrats tend to have a decided advantage now in statewide elections in California. And most Democrats that turn out to vote will be hearing "No on Recall, Yes on Bustamonte" for weeks before the election

I think the recall will fail. But suppose it wins by 55%. That means 45% vote no, and a large percentage of those will vote for Bustamonte. So after an intense campaign, and hopefully intensely partisan campaigning by the Democrats, Bustamonte is likely to wind up with 45%.

The Republicans, on the other hand, are in effect running a Republican primary in the same election. Simon won well over 40% in the general election against Davis last year, and he's campaigning hard. California Republicans tend to prefer red-meat partisans like Simon, which is why he beat out Riordan in last year's Republican primary. To the drooling-at-the-mouth Reps, Ahnie looks dangerously liberal.

Besides Simon, a couple of other Republicans are likely to draw some percentage of the vote. So even if you assume only 40% for Bustamonte, Schwartzenegger will have to win 68% of the non-Bustamonte vote to edge him out with 41% of the total. It will be like winning 68% in a highly competitive Republican primary.

I know that's a boring analysis of the California recall "circus." But it seems to me that's the real framework in which to see this recall vote.

- Posted by Bruce Miler 08/22/03

Tags: california politics, schwarzenegger