Update on The Surge in Iraq

Anthony Cordesman is at it again. He has a brief paper (5 pages) on the progress of The Surge, with particular reference to the much-publicized action in the city of Baquba: Iraq, Baquba, Arrowhead Ripper, and the Real Elements of "Victory" (Center for Strategic and International Studies) 06/25/07. He writes:

Historically, any campaign that has had to begin with as weak a foundation as the surge strategy took at least a year to seriously take hold and often several years. An Iraq in political turmoil, in local economic collapse, and without security even for senior officials and members of parliament, will not move quickly – especially in a Baghdad summer.

The fact remains, however, that tactical success will remain largely meaningless in Baghdad, Baquba, the other areas covered by Operation Ripper, and in Iraq as a whole unless it can be linked to political conciliation and progress in the other six critical elements of victory [Cordesman describes in an earlier section]. The US team in Iraq and the Bush Administration need to show the American people and the Congress that they understand this, are acting on the basis of these realities, have sound plans, and are making real progress. "Spinning" the importance of tactical success does not do this.

At the same time, both the media and outside analysts need to focus far more on the full range of actions it takes to win, and to do so with patience and objectivity. No strategy or campaign could possibly achieve significant success in all of these elements by this fall, or even ensure a successful start. It is reasonable to demand credible plans and transparent and meaningful reporting – something that the Administration has not yet provided in a single critical area. (my emphasis underlined)

Get that? The McCain Surge can't even fully start to show success by the fall, according to Cordesman. Cheney and Bush are doing a heckuva job running this war.

Tags: anthony cordesman, iraq war