Surprising sense - and even hope - in the Middle East confusion?

Uneasy allies: Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki and Our Dear Leader Bush

The reports about a rift between Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki and Gen. David Petraeus, US commander in Iraq and the current Republican grand hope for Victory there, indicate a serious complication in the balancing act that Cheney and Bush are currently doing between the Shi'a and Sunni camps. See, for instance, Iraq: Washington won't heed any call to replace commander by Steven Hurst and Qassim Abdul-Zahra AP Long Beach Press-Telegram Online 07/28/07:

Al-Maliki, a Shiite activist who spent the Saddam Hussein years in exile, hotly objects to the recent U.S. practice of recruiting tribal groups tied to the Sunni insurgency for the fight against the Sunni extremists of al-Qaida, deemed "Enemy No. 1" by the Americans. His loud complaints have won little but a U.S. pledge to let al-Maliki's security apparatus screen the recruits.

As the head of a Shi'a coalition and Iraq's Shi'a-dominated government, Maliki is concerned that the Sunni groups cooperating with the US now will be strengthened in later confrontations with his government. Understandably so. One of the risks of encouraging and empowering local militias like this is that it makes it more difficult to de-activate or neutralize them later.

This is also an interesting observation reminding us the level of confidence the Cheney-Bush admnistration has in the "independent" government of Iraq:

Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari told Newsweek magazine the Petraeus-al-Maliki relationship is "difficult." For one thing, the Americans retain control of the Iraqi military. "The prime minister cannot just pick up the phone and have Iraqi army units do what he says. Maliki needs more leverage," Zebari said. (my emphasis)

(For the Newsweek interview, see 'A Sense of Conspiracy' by Melinda Liu and Larry Kaplow Newsweek International 07/2-907 issue.

But in all the cross-currents of escalating arms sales to Saudi Arabia and Israel, talks with Iran mixed with incessent threats and various other complications, Iran expert Gary Sick continues to maintain his hope that war with Iran can be avoided. And even that a near-miracle could be happening: the Cheney-Bush administration pulling off a complex set diplomatic manuevers (Iran and US Jiu-Jitsu in the Middle East Informed Comment Global Affairs blog 07/30/07):

I was finally moved to respond by the news this weekend that the US intends to sell $20 billion in new arms to the Arab states of the Gulf over the next decade, while increasing military aid to Israel by 25% (a total of $3 billion per year) and also raising aid to Egypt by a smaller but significant amount. Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice and Secretary of Defense Robert Gates are getting ready for a major Middle East trip to present this package and to attempt to forge a working consensus focused squarely on Iran as the major threat in the region. The level of the bribes may change in the course of discussions, but this is obviously intended as an offer that they cannot refuse. ...

I am aware of the total incompetence of this administration over much of the past five years or so in the Middle East, and I also read the polls saying that their confidence level with the American people (not to mention the rest of the world) is at a nadir. However, I am simply describing what I see, and I think it is important to take seriously the evidence in front of us. Perhaps my analysis is wrong, but I don't believe this concatenation of actions by the Bush administration is simply random.

I'm not entirely convinced. But avoiding war with Iran would be a major improvement over what Cheney apparently has planned. So I hope Sick is right in this case. Although even he obviously recognizes the riskiness of any assumption that depends on this administration demonstrating real competence in foreign policy.

Tags: gary sick, iraq war