Why is the Maverick's campaign faltering?

Glenn Greenwald has a good "catch" about how a new piece of conventional wisdom, that Maverick McCain's Presidential campaign has fallen on hard times because of his support for the Iraq War, doesn't quite make sense.

Because the Republican base loves the war - mostly for someone else to fight, of course. Or, as the title of his post puts it, The GOP is the party of the Iraq war Salon 07/16/07. He points out:

This is wrong on several levels, and independently, it is a counter-productive theme to be peddling. In fact, the opposite is true: no presidential candidate can possibly hope to win the GOP nomination unless he fervently supports the war in Iraq. ...

The war in Iraq remains popular with the GOP base. They want to stay and keep waging war. They would immediately turn against anyone who advocated withdrawal or even questioned the wisdom of staying. The Republican Party continues to be the Party of the Iraq War, and - directly contrary to the conventional wisdom that is arising - loyal support for the Iraq War is an absolute pre-requisite for winning the nomination.

Even though the Maverick has been one of the most conservative Senators in his voting record overall and has pandered eagerly to the theocrats on "family values" issues, he is still damaged among the Republican faithful by "his excessive deviation from the Right's mandated views - on torture, on McCain-Feingold, and especially on immigration." Even though his opposition to torture was pure fluff, a PR ploy and not any serious attempt to end the criminal practice, and his campaign-finance reform disadvantaged Democrats more than Republicans in the short run, those are far more credible explanations for McCain's fundraising and polling problems.

I would be happy to see the Republican primaries prove me wrong next year and instead show a huge Republican backlash against the Iraq War. There's probably a better chance of Dick Cheney becoming a pacifist minister, but who knows?

Tags: iraq war, mccain