Iraq War Critics and Public Opinion

Some of the most perceptive critical observers of the Iraq War have been showing a real sense of frustration since Bush's televised Iraq speech. It's part of the paradox of reformers: once the general public starts getting the message, it's hard not to feel disgusted that it took them so long.

Billmon fits into that category. He's definitely impatient at the slow-changing public attitude toward the war. But it's not nearly as bad as it looks to him at the moment.

First of all, polls are great at predicting general elections. But they're pretty lousy at measuring public attitudes on foreign policy. The questions are often poorly constructed. A demographer friend of mine tells me that often, they fail to include a "don't know" option, for instance, a pretty serious omission. (I can't say whether that applies to the particular polls Billmon cites.) Foreign policy polls are better at showing trends than measuring positions on specific issues.

Billmon is putting too much weight on abstract attitudes, e.g., that 58% of Americans say the Iraq War was worth fighting. What's remarkable is that only 58% are saying that. And what does that really mean? It includes basically 100% of the partisan Republicans who were thoughtless cheerleaders for the war. And it includes some people who aren't ready to say that the war was totally unworthy of the sacrifice of American lives.

Surely Billmon is already familiar with the problem war critics have always faced, of honoring the patriotism and sacrifice of the soldiers while criticizing the war in which they fought. For many people, "The war was fought for good reasons, but they way it was done wasn't right" is a good way to resolve that dilemma.

He also cites a poll finding that 55% think US casualties are too high, even when the war aims were taken into account. That's pretty strong stuff. One of the basic ideas of Christian "just war" theory as enunciated some 15 centuries ago by Saint Augustine is that the cost of the war (in lives above all) should be commensurate with the good likely to be achieved. If 55% are saying they think that isn't the case, that would be a strong measure of sympathy for the war skeptics' position.

Billmon's reaction to the current polls seems to be a case of not being able to take "yes" for an answer.