Transition in Cuba, no transition in American policy

Fidel Castro

One might hope that Fidel Castro's announcement that he is stepping down as Cuba's leader would inspire a little vision and maybe even a tiny bit of courage on the part of our Presidential candidates. But one would be wrong. Surely, you say, that bold Maverick McCain would take the opportunity to break with Republican orthodoxy? (Sorry, I couldn't resist.)

But, of course, one would be wrong on all counts, as Jim Lobe explains in U.S. Awaits Its Own Transition to Review Policy Inter Press Service 01/19/08:

Raúl Castro (r)

Most independent Cuba experts contend that Fidel’s formal departure will make a difference in Havana.

His resignation "is a signal that there will be more space for others," said Julia Sweig, a Cuba specialist at the Council on Foreign Relations who predicted that Raul is likely to promote reforms in agriculture and small business in ways designed to reduce the role of the state in the economy -- a process that, during Castro’s illness, he had already initiated.

Chancellor Felipe Pérez

Raul’s stewardship has also seen the recent release of four prominent political prisoners, as well as a number of members - for reasons of health - of the so-called Group of 75 dissidents rounded up in 2003.

To many Cuba specialists, Washington should use Castro’s resignation as an opportunity to reach out to the new regime, if for no other reason, according to Sweig, than it "would get an enormous boost globally and in Latin America especially."

National Assembly president Ricardo Alarcón

"Raul Castro has said now three times that he’s interested in talking with the United States unconditionally to try to resolve all outstanding issues between the two countries," noted William LeoGrande, a veteran Cuba specialist at American University and dean of its School of Government. "The Cuban leadership is in the process of considering some sign of economic changes, and it would make sense for the United States to be able to influence that in a positive way. You can’t have any influence if you don’t have any contact."

Fidel and Hugo Chávez

Venezuela's President Hugo Chávez, as we might expect, had his own take on matters: "¿Cuál renuncia?, Fidel no ha renunciado a nada. (What renuciation? Fidel hasn't renounced anything.)" Say what? Actually, he went on to acknowledge that Fidel's physical weakness made it impossible for him to continue as Cuban President. But, he said, Fidel will continue to be a leading figure "en la batalla de la revolución cubana y la revolución en América Latina (in the battle of the Cuban revolution and the Latin American revolution)". (Hugo Chávez dice que Fidel no ha renunciado a nada El País 19.02.08)

Vice President Carlos Lage

One of the effects of the ascent of Raúl Castro may dampen relations with Venezuela somewhat, as Raúl is thought to be more "pragmatic" and less ideological than his brother.

Rodrigo Pardo of Cambio suggests that leaders like Vice President Carlos Lage, National Assembly president Ricardo Alarcón, and Chancellor Felipe Pérez are likely to be prominent in the Cuban leadership for the immediate future along with Raúl.

Tags: cuba, fidel castro