Conason on Republican filibuster prospects in the Senate

Joe Conason says he ain't worried about no stinkin' filibuster!

In Who's Afraid of a Filibuster? New York Observer 11/11/08, he walks us through the math in the newly-elected Senate. I've been thinking that the Dems might have to use the so-called "nuclear option" of changing the rules and eliminating the filibuster to get measures like health insurance passed. And I for one wouldn't be very sorry to see that particular Senate tradition's demise. In practice, the Republican threats to abolish it, settled in a "compromise" broker by the "Gang of 14", abolished in anyway.

But Conason looks at Republicans who are facing tough re-election fights in 2010. And I like the results of his calculations:

Six Senate Republicans will face reelection two years hence in states that went for Mr. Obama: Judd Gregg (R-NH), Arlen Specter (R- PA), George Voinovich (R-OH), Mel Martinez (R-FL), Chuck Grassley (R- IA), and Richard Burr (R-NC). Having seen their fellow incumbents fall in the last two elections, that half dozen may well consider themselves in varying degrees of political peril. Poor Mr. Gregg watched his New Hampshire colleague John Sununu drop this year as their state turned deep blue. Mr. Martinez won his seat in 2004 by a single point and is widely considered vulnerable. So are Mr. Specter, nearing his 80th birthday, and Mr. Voinovich, now 72.

Several other Republican incumbents may confront difficult reelection races in 2010 too, including Kit Bond (R-MO), whose state went for John McCain by a miniscule margin (many votes fewer than the number who voted for Ralph Nader). Nor should we forget Jim Bunning (R-KY), 77 years old and aging badly, who was nearly taken out in 2004 by an underfunded, little-known Democrat. Recent polls show him sinking.

And finally there is Mr. McCain himself, whose popularity in Arizona has diminished markedly this year. His term will expire in two years as well, and at least one poll shows that he would lose his seat to Janet Napolitano, the state’s popular Democratic governor. Perhaps that is why he returned home to campaign on the eve of the election.

If Obama puts on a full-court press and mobilizes the base on key issues, he should be able to steamroll the Republican obstructionists.

Tags: barack obama, joe conason