Saturday, November 04, 2017

Iran, Russia, Syria, Iraq

Al-Monitor has this report from Maxim Suchkov on Iran's main leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who had a summit this past week with Vladimir Putin in Tehran, along with Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, Iran’s Khamenei has three main messages for Putin at summit 11/03/2017. It summarizes three main points that Suchkov describes as the political message from Khamenei to Putin:
First, Iranians don’t see the war in Syria as being over or even coming to end. This is an important point, given the Russian military’s repeated statements that its operation in Syria is “coming to a conclusion” and the rumors that Russian air forces in the country will soon begin a gradual drawdown. ...

A drawdown would suggest Moscow would shift focus from military operations to finding a political settlement in Syria. Commenting on the Kommersant news, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov denied any concrete decision has been made on a drawdown and said, “The last word rests with the commander-in-chief.”

Second, Khamenei wants Putin to stay alert regarding the United States. On one hand, that reflects Tehran’s concern over the possibility of a deal between Moscow and Washington that would be detrimental to Iranian interests in Syria and Iraq. On the other hand, it alludes to Iran’s own readiness for a worst-case scenario in which the United States can come up with policies obstructing — militarily or politically — Russian and Iranian gains. ...

... Khamenei's third message to Putin [is]: Russia and Iran need to deepen their cooperation at other levels. Khamenei praised Putin for being a “strong and responsible leader” and said Russia is a country “with which you can have dialogue and cooperation.” The assessment certainly doesn’t mean Khamenei and the rest of the Iranian leadership aren’t wary of Moscow’s military deals with the Saudis and Turks, its energy interests in Iraqi Kurdistan and its willingness to maintain coordination with Israel and the United States. Yet there seems to be a broader understanding in Iran and Russia that befriending each other on the basis of anti-Americanism doesn’t make for a strategic partnership. [my emphasis]
Renad Mansour of Chatham House warns us to be cautious about propaganda claims that Iran is running the show in Iraq, whose regime, originally installed by the US invasion of Iraq and still supported by US troops, is clearly pro-Iranian, which is something very different than being dominated by Iran. Mansour writes (Iraq Is Not Iran’s Puppet New York Times 11/02/2017):

When it comes to Iran in Iraq, emotion fogs reality, limiting understanding in Washington. Yet for Iran, when it comes to the United States in the Middle East, pragmatism guides policy, translating to more successes.

For the Iraqi government, Iran is a foreign actor just like the United States is. Iraqi leaders view Iranian officials in their country — including Maj. Gen. Qassim Suleimani, the commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps’ elite Quds Force — as international military advises, just as they view American military advisers. Both are first looking out for their country’s national interests. The Iraqi government does not assign any ethical or moral superiority to one over the other, and it still needs both.


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