Tuesday, June 12, 2018

Democratic wave in California? Or not?

This is a reminder of the risk in Democrats assuming that they will have a "wave" election in Novevmber in their favor without any special new efforts to make it happen (John Woofolk, Did Trump spur Latinos to California’s primary polls? San Jose Mercury News).
Overall statewide turnout in the June primary appears unimpressive based on available returns. The Secretary of State’s office was reporting estimated turnout at 22.7 percent by the end of the week, slightly less than the 25.14 percent in 2014, the last primary election for governor.

Turnout in some big counties with large Latino populations was reported even lower. It was 18 percent in Los Angeles, home base for both [Latino gubernatorial candidates] Villaraigosa and de León.

Political Data Inc., which analyzes election data, won’t have a good picture of statewide voting patterns for another 40 days or so after county elections officials certify results, said the firm’s vice president Paul Mitchell.
The Sacramento Bee's Dan Schnur echoes the report in Marches didn't mean voters: Influencers weigh in on turnout in California's primary 06/141/2018

Also, Dan Walters has a different view of the turnout, presumably referring to California's vote last week:

Both the articles cited above strike me as superficial, heavy on horse-race claims and light on the kind of facts Walters cites.

CALmatters, with which Walters is associated, seems to have more substantive coverage. Byrhonda Lyons reports in With voter turnout up statewide, five California counties find new mail-in ballot system slows count 06/08/2018:
The numbers suggest that voter turnout statewide will reach 36 percent—a big improvement over the record-low turnout of 25 percent statewide in the last primary midterms, in 2014.

Tuesday’s turnout was similarly higher in the five counties using the new vote-center model: Sacramento, San Mateo, Nevada, Napa and Madera. Sacramento County, the largest, had a 30 percent turnout in 2014 and appears headed for a 46 percent turnout in Tuesday’s primary.
Here's Ben Christopher, California’s Blue Wave watch: Why this graphic should worry Republicans 06/11/2018:
Not only did the party steer clear of its dreaded “shutout scenario,” in which an oversupply of candidates in some of the state’s most competitive races threatened to divide up the Democratic vote, leaving only Republicans to advance to the general election. The preliminary count also suggests that primary voters in certain high profile districts are much more inclined toward Democrats than they were in 2014.

That may or may not foretell a “blue wave” in California, but it does show that Republicans have their work cut out for them.
But these two pieces, like the ones cited above, don't bother to give numbers of votes, which Walters mentions in his tweet. Isn't that kind of a basic fact needed to make sense of the percentages?

No comments: