Sunday, August 12, 2018

Turkey's falling currency

The Turkish lira has been falling drastically. Yanis Varoufakis gives up a few bullet-points on the situation.

Paul Krugman in Partying Like It’s 1998 New York Times 08/11/2018 talks about the similarities he sees between Turkey's present situation and Asian crises of the 1990s, which he has studied closely. He sees an admittedly "tricky"
How it works: stop the explosion of the debt ratio with some combination of temporary capital controls, to place a curfew on panicked capital flight, and possibly the repudiation of some foreign-currency debt. Meanwhile, get things in place for a fiscally sustainable regime once the crisis is over. If all goes well, confidence will gradually return, and you’ll eventually be able to remove the capital controls.

Malaysia did this in 1998; South Korea, with U.S. aid, effectively did something like it at the same time, by pressuring banks into maintaining their short-term credit lines. A decade later, Iceland did very well with a combination of capital controls and debt repudiation (strictly speaking, refusing to take public responsibility for the debts run up by private bankers).
He also notes, "Argentina also did quite well with heterodox policies in 2002 and for a few years after, effectively repudiating 2/3 of its debt." Which is certainly right.

Then he adds this, "But the Kirchner regime didn’t know when to stop and turn orthodox again, setting the stage for the country’s return to crisis."

I'm surprised that Krugman would blame Cristina Fernández' government for the economic disaster the current President Mauricio Macri created with his straight-up IMF/Washington Consensus/neoliberal policy recipe.

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