Why is the Turkish lira falling? 1. Capital influx necessary to refinance $ denom. corp debt + current account deficit = $215bl pa. 2. $ liquidity shrunk globally under post-QE FED & Trump tax-cut induced deficit rise. 3. Erdogan vetoes int. rate rise and/or capital controls
— Yanis Varoufakis (@yanisvaroufakis) August 11, 2018
How it works: stop the explosion of the debt ratio with some combination of temporary capital controls, to place a curfew on panicked capital flight, and possibly the repudiation of some foreign-currency debt. Meanwhile, get things in place for a fiscally sustainable regime once the crisis is over. If all goes well, confidence will gradually return, and you’ll eventually be able to remove the capital controls.He also notes, "Argentina also did quite well with heterodox policies in 2002 and for a few years after, effectively repudiating 2/3 of its debt." Which is certainly right.
Malaysia did this in 1998; South Korea, with U.S. aid, effectively did something like it at the same time, by pressuring banks into maintaining their short-term credit lines. A decade later, Iceland did very well with a combination of capital controls and debt repudiation (strictly speaking, refusing to take public responsibility for the debts run up by private bankers).
Then he adds this, "But the Kirchner regime didn’t know when to stop and turn orthodox again, setting the stage for the country’s return to crisis."
I'm surprised that Krugman would blame Cristina Fernández' government for the economic disaster the current President Mauricio Macri created with his straight-up IMF/Washington Consensus/neoliberal policy recipe.
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