Showing posts with label trump impeachment. Show all posts
Showing posts with label trump impeachment. Show all posts

Monday, May 22, 2017

Are Trump's troubles the result of a "soft coup"? (2 of 2)

Part 1 of this pair of posts discussed what can be considered a "soft coup." This one is about left and right versions of the idea that Trump is facing one.

From the left, Robert Perry uses the term in The ‘Soft Coup’ of Russia-gate Consortium News 05/13/2017:

Many people who detest Trump view Russia-gate as the most likely path to achieve Trump’s impeachment, so this desirable end justifies whatever means.

Some people have told me that they even believe that it is the responsibility of the major news media, the law enforcement and intelligence communities, and members of Congress to engage in a “soft coup” against Trump – also known as a “constitutional coup” or “deep state coup” – for the “good of the country.”

The argument is that it sometimes falls to these Establishment institutions to “correct” a mistake made by the American voters, in this case, the election of a largely unqualified individual as U.S. president. It is even viewed by some anti-Trump activists as a responsibility of “responsible” journalists, government officials and others to play this “guardian” role, to not simply “resist” Trump but to remove him.
And he makes the argument to consider this a "soft coup" in his own words:

The New York Times and The Washington Post, in particular, have made it clear that they view Trump as a clear and present danger to the American system and thus have cast aside any pretense of neutrality.

The Times justifies its open hostility to the President as part of its duty to protect “the truth”; the Post has adopted a slogan aimed at Trump, “Democracy Dies in Darkness.” In other words, America’s two most influential political newspapers are effectively pushing for a “soft coup” under the guise of defending “democracy” and “truth.”

But the obvious problem with a “soft coup” is that America’s democratic process, as imperfect as it has been and still is, has held this diverse country together since 1788 with the notable exception of the Civil War.

If Americans believe that the Washington elites are removing an elected president – even one as buffoonish as Donald Trump – it could tear apart the fabric of national unity, which is already under extraordinary stress from intense partisanship.

That means that the “soft coup” would have to be carried out under the guise of a serious investigation into something grave enough to justify the President’s removal, a removal that could be accomplished by congressional impeachment, his forced resignation, or the application of Twenty-fifth Amendment, which allows the Vice President and a majority of the Cabinet to judge a President incapable of continuing in office (although that could require two-thirds votes by both houses of Congress if the President fights the maneuver).
Perry is a solid researcher whose reporting has taught him to be highly skeptical of intelligence agency claims and the Establishment and/or Beltway Village consensus on issues. His article does raise some relevant questions about civil liberties concerns and about some of the ways that Trump associates Carter Page and Paul Manafort are being characterized as "pro-Russian."

And he has an entirely legitimate concern about what he describes this way, "the larger political problem confronting the United States is that the neoconservatives and their junior partners, the liberal interventionists, now control nearly all the levers of U.S. foreign policy. That means they can essentially dictate how events around the world will be perceived by most Americans." The uncritical and sometimes careless reporting on Russia-Russia-Russia is obviously of benefit to those who for whatever reason - including serious concerns about how Russian actions may affect US and European security - favor a policy of aggressive confrontation toward Russia.

There's a strange sideline phenomenon going on, an anti-Trump stream of "fake news" that careless liberals sometimes find attractive. The current leading light in this corner of the information ecosystem is Louise Mensch. (Zack Beauchamp, Democrats are falling for fake news about Russia Vox 05/19/2017) Beauchamp describes the perspective involved as "a general sense that Russian influence in the United States is pervasive and undercovered by the mainstream media. Everything that happens in US politics is understood through this lens — especially actions taken by the Trump administration, which is seen as Kremlin-occupied territory." The kind of items Beauchamp discuss are examples of what Perry warns about, deceptive reports aimed to take advantage of an exacerbate anti-Russian fears and hatreds.

Facts do matter.

And there is enough in the public record now to justify serious impeachment proceedings.

Michael Tracey of TYT Politics discusses what might be called a soft version of the "soft coup" narrative with Mollie Hemingway, a senior editor of The Federalist, Media's Trump Obsession: Are They Overreacting? 05/19/2017



Michael mostly lets Mollie keep the conversation at a high level of generalization, though they do discuss some of the specific accusations against Trump that might be involved in impeachment. They discuss it in terms of the Deep State, the various intelligence, military and bureaucratic interests within the executive and the larger military-industrial complex. I've never gotten completely comfortable with the "Deep State" term. Because its usage in practice seems always to be too fuzzy for my taste.

James Downton of The Federalist outlines a conservative version of the "soft coup" theory, although he doesn't use that exact phrase, in We Are Watching A Slow-Motion Coup D’etat 05/19/2017. One of the most popular narratives about President Nixon's resignation under the threat of impeachment among conservatives is that it was a purely partisan-political action, i.e., an illegitimate one. Facilitated by Republicans of the times now regarded by conservative partisans as squishes and phony Republicans. So there is a ready-made conservative template for regarding a removal of Trump from office as an illegitimate partisan event. So it's worth paying at least some attention to this preliminary version tailored to Trump.

Downton also forgoes the Deep State term. But he describes the collective agent of the supposed coup against Trump as "forces within the U.S. government, media, and partisan opposition have aligned to overthrow the Electoral College winner, Donald Trump." He does apply the term recently popularized by Steve Bannon, "the administrative state." But he declines to anoint particular individuals as masterminds of this plan:

Unlike the coup d’etat that sees a military or popular figure lead a minority resistance or majority force into power over the legitimate government, this coup d’etat is leaderless and exposes some of the deepest fissures in our system of government. This coup d’etat represents not the rule of one man or even many, but by the multitude of our elites.
He does show a probably unintentional humorous side when the talks about "the Democratic Party’s scorched-earth campaign against the political nominations of the Trump White House." The Democrats managed to keep that ferocious campaign well concealed from the Democratic base. He argues that "what has been branded as 'The Resistance' ... in actuality is the totalitarian might of the administrative state and their partisan allies." He illustrates that with a quote from the liberal magazine Mother Jones.

Downton tells us that the shadowy instigators of this Administrative State coup attempt see their role this way: "In their minds they are but a guardian of the people, albeit one that must stand up to and ultimately negate the will of that very same people." This is just another dull variation on the unending condemnation of those Mean Librul elitists that supposedly run the world, despite the desperate resistance of the embattled billionaire rugged individualists suffering horribly under the unbearable pain of having to pay taxes to support their country.

The rest of his article is largely made up of various repetitions of the general charge that all known embarrassing reports on the conduct of Trump and his team generated by "collusion between the various elements of the partisan Left, the media, and the administrative state." He doesn't engage seriously with even the best-grounded and disturbing reports, like Michael Flynn acting as an unregistered foreign agent for Turkey and the various clandestine contacts between the Trump campaign and transition teams with Russian officials.

Ironically, the reader learns at the end of the piece, "James Downton is the pen name of a Federalist contributor who is contractually prohibited from writing publicly about politics under his real name."

I'm reluctant to include the move to oust Trump, which the Democrats are pursuing fairly timidly from my point of view, as an instance of a "soft coup." For one thing, quite unlike the cases of Paraguay and Brazil, a removal of Trump from office would not represent a change in the governing party or any major changes in direction of policy. Mike Pence can be assumed to wish to carry forward most of Trump policies, although he could conceivably pursuing a more New Cold War type policy towards Russia than Trump may favor. Pence was elected on the same party ticket and platform as Trump. So even if he were impeached and removed from office for politically or ethically illegitimate reasons, the question would remain whether it could be considered a coup.

Because even the most legitimate and clearly proven of causes for impeachment and removal would proceed by the same Constitutional procedure. And, with the current office-holders, the party holding the Presidency would not change. The official line of succession to the Presidency has never gone beyond the Vice President in practice. Wikipedia's United States presidential line of succession as of this writing has the following table showing the current line of succession:


Numbers 6, 16 and 17 are Independents, number 6 being Defense Secretary James "Mad Dog" Mattis. The rest are Republicans.

Sunday, May 21, 2017

Are Trump's troubles the result of a "soft coup"? (1 of 2)

I first recall coming across the term "soft coup" (golpe suave or golpe blando) in connection with the impeachment of Paraguay's President Fernando Lugo in 2012. This report from Aljazeera gives an account of the outster of Lugo, Paraguay's Forgotten Coup 12/26/2013. The article is accompanied by this video report, People & Power - Paraguay's Forgotten Coup 12/25/2013:



An earlier report closer to the event from Aljazeera's Inside Story also describes the ouster and whether it should be considered a coup, Paraguay: Impeachment or political coup? 06/25/2016:



El Universal (Ecuador) gives credit to Gene Sharp for coining the "soft coup" term back in 1973. (Un politólogo de EE.UU. planteó el término de ‘golpe de Estado blando’ 12.06.2014)

Sharp is a political scientist whose name is not so well-known in the United States as it seems to be in Latin America, where the left generally regards him as the designer of a regime change strategy commonly used by the United States to undermine governments it considers inconvenient or otherwise undesirable by using means other than overt force. This CNN reports celebrates him, Gene Sharp: A dictator's worst nightmare by By Mairi Mackay 06/25/2012.

I've seen the term "soft coup" also applied to the overthrow of the Honduran government in 2009. But that one also had military involvement: "In 2009, a group of Honduran politicians and military officers staged a coup and removed then-President Manuel Zelaya from office and from the country." (Tracy Wilkinson, A Honduran coup comes full circle Los Angeles Times 04/27/2017)

Not incidentally, the Obama Administration and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton showed clear diplomatic approval of both the Honduran and Paraguayan coups, "soft" or not. The Administration also showed sympathy for the "soft coup" in Brazil in 2016 against President Rousseff. (This Confirms It was a Coup: Brazil Crisis Deepens as Evidence Mounts of Plot to Oust Dilma Rousseff Democracy Now! 05/25/2016; Ben Norton, “Parliamentary coup”: Impeachment of Brazil’s President Rousseff hands power to corrupt, unelected right wing Salon 08/31/2016; Genaro Oliveira, Brazil's 'soft coup' is not the end of a lively democracy New Zealand Herald 09/01/2017)

The circumstances of Rousseff's ouster fully justify Genaro Oliveira's characterization, "From whatever side it's viewed, the impeachment process was never about seeking justice or upholding democracy. It has always been a judicial farce masking a nasty power dispute between elite political factions."

I don't have a problem using the "soft coup" term to describes Lugo's removal from office in Paraguay in 2012 and Rousseff's in Brazil in 2016. Because both were politically and democratically illegitimate actions that nevertheless took place within established legal procedures. The actions resulted in a significant change in the national government leadership and its policies in a way that fairly obviously ran contrary to the democratic decision of free elections.

I have some reservations about how far the usage of the "soft coup" idea can go. On the one hand, it usefully distinguishes between coups accomplished by force and violence and those which achieve an illegitimate change of government without the use or imminent threat of violence. On the other hand, we could have an interesting discussion about the extent to which the implicit or explicit threat of violence is at work even in the case of the "soft coups." And while it's arguably preferable to achieve illegitimate aims through nonviolent means, the consequences of a "soft coup" could be every bit as destructive as a more traditional version in which the military rolls tanks into the street and demands that the legal government resign.

Whether or not we consider Honduras 2009 as "soft" or not, the change of government took place without armed clashes between pro- and anti-government forces. But this description makes it sound a lot like the traditional military coup, "In the first military coup in Central America since the end of the cold war, soldiers stormed the presidential palace in the capital, Tegucigalpa, early in the morning, disarming the presidential guard, waking Mr. Zelaya and putting him on a plane to Costa Rica." (Elisabeth Malkin, Honduran President Is Ousted in Coup New York Times 06/28/2009) But the upshot of the coup in practice has been a vast increase in criminal violence in Honduras, which has increased pressure for Hondurans to flee to Mexico and the United States.

It's also important to remember that military coups typically have major cooperation among civilian politicians and private players. Two examples that come readily to mind are the coup in Chile in 1973 and that in Argentina in 1955.

And a "soft" coup can also have problematic international assistance. (Helene Cooper and Marc Lacey, In a Coup in Honduras, Ghosts of Past U.S. Policies New York Times 06/29/2009)

Now the term "soft coup" is turning up in discussion of President Trump's pretty certainly impeachable offenses. In this MSNBC 11th Hour report, a Wall Street Journal reporter uses the term, Eli Stokols: Donald Trump Is Facing Something Like A Soft Coup D'état 05/19/2017:



Eli Stokols uses the term in a seemingly descriptive way to talk about how Trump critics internal to his Administration as well as the press and external political critics are undermining Trump's Presidency over the Trump-Russia scandal. But "coup" obviously carries an implication of illegitimacy.

Legitimacy is a critical factor here. And by any sensible perspective, there are substantial reasons to believe that there are serious instances of wrongdoing that may well amount to the kind of "high crimes and misdemeanors" that would justify impeach of the President under the Constitution.

The drama (and melodrama) of the Trump-Russia scandal has eclipsed the issue of violating the emoluments clause that was much discussed during the transition. (Mark Joseph Stern, High Crimes and Misdemeanors Slate 01/04/2017) But given how the Trump Family Business Administration approaches the business of the Presidency, that in itself is a substantial problem that should be formally and thoroughly investigated. Just this weekend, we had the odd coincidence of Saudi Arabia committing $100 million to a fund established by First Daughter Ivanka Trump, during the same foreign trip in which Saudi Arabia agreed to a $110 billion arms deal with the US. (Jen Hayden, On same weekend as record-breaking arms deal, Saudis announced $100 million donation to Ivanka fund Daily Kos 05/21/2017) Admittedly, $100 million is less than one percent of the amount of the arms deal. But I'm pretty sure it's big enough to count as an emolument if it otherwise meets the technical requirements of the term. Ivanka's husband also played an important role in arranging the arms deal. (Mark Landler et al, $110 Billion Weapons Sale to Saudis Has Jared Kushner’s Personal Touch New York Times 05/18/2017)

Trump's defenders insist there is no "evidence" of serious misdeeds by Trump. But that begs the questions of whether there are concerns substantial enough for Congressional and criminal investigation of some of these major incidents. While it's true that we don't have the full documentation for the intelligence community's January report on Russian hacking of the Democratic National Committee in the public record, it's hard to see how any government would make every detail of such a finding publicly available. But it's certainly reason for Congress and investigative agencies to understand it thoroughly. And if the four intelligence agencies whose consensus that report represented just concocted the conclusions, that would be something that urgently needs to be uncovered, as well!

And it sounds highly likely from what is in the public record that Trump himself was involved in obstruction of justice in the Trump-Russia investigation, especially with the firing of FBI Director James Comey. And Trump's first National Security Adviser Michael Flynn was working as an unregistered foreign agent for Turkey last year. And given the warnings we know that Trump and his transition team received from senior officials about Michael Flynn before Trump named him as National Security Adviser makes it look reckless at the very best to appoint him to that post with the top-level security clearance that comes with it.

Given Trump's flagrant lack of concern about conflicts of interest, it will not surprise me in the least that we'll eventually learn at lot about dubious financial entanglements of the Trump family business with Russian interests.

In Part 2 tomorrow, I'll look at left and right versions of the "soft coup" framing on Trump's Constitutional problems.