But maybe it's a mistake to try to make sense out of it. Maybe they're just floundering. Because with the Iraq War, it Bush and Rummy are looking more and more like the guy in Buck Owens' song who has "got a tiger by the tail." They can't hang on forever this way. But any immediate alternative is very risky.
And the risk calculations have already been bad. Going into Iraq the way they did, with reasons for war that were, well, fake, now appears to have been a "bet the farm" kind of gamble. If the war was quick and easy, the potential payoff was big in terms of domestic political prestige, military clout in the Middle East, access to Iraqi oil and contracts for Halliburton and Bechtel. But now that it's turned out not be be quick or easy, there are huge downsides. (Halliburton and Bechtel seem to be doing okay so far.)
Today's San Francisco Chronicle has a good analysis of the prospects for action on a new Iraq resolution. Barring some big breakthrough, Bush is likely to get a cosmetic Security Council resolution offering some kind of very limited UN participation in the eventual transfer of power. But the US will still maintain full control over the occupation and the transition. And any international military or economic assistance will be limited. The Chronicle's analyst is probably being over-optimistic when he says:
The Bush administration is hoping that a resolution would pave the way for U.S. troops in Iraq to be substituted by 10,000 to 15,000 troops from Pakistan, Turkey, Bangladesh, India and the Arab nations. But Turkey is considered the only sure bet.I won't count Turkey as a "sure bet" until the troops are on the ground in Iraq. Given the tensions between Turkey and the Kurds in northern Iraq, even then it's still more of a gamble than a "sure bet."
Bush just delivered his speech a few minutes ago. We'll soon see what the response from other countries will be.
Tags: bush, iraq war, united nations
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