A Reuters analysis explains:
On the face of it, a marginal reduction in Blair's huge 165-seat parliamentary majority looks inconsequential.Foreign policy is never the only issue in these things. But it played a significant role in this one.
But timing is all. The political damage to Blair will be heavy at a time when opinion polls show most Britons no longer trust him and his annual Labour Party conference looms, with activists angry about a war they opposed.
I do feel sorry for Blair, up to a point. I had seen him as a very sympathetic figure, up until he backed the Iraq War and agreed to participate in the invasion without UN approval. And he's paid a heavy price for what he apparently saw - with more faith than judgment - as a moral imperative. His credibility is wrecked. He's lost one of his most key long-time advisers, Alistair Campbell. He runs a real risk of being outsted as Prime Minister by his own Labour Party.
It seems to me that Blair tried to play Britain's traditional role of being a bridge between the US and the other countries of Europe. The problem in this case is that he failed to understand just how drastic Bush and Rummy's foreign policy was breaking from previous Administrations. The European democracies expected to be America's allies. Bush and Rummy expected them to be something more like vassal states. In the end, Blair wound up being derided by critics at home as "America's poodle" and blowing his credibility with Europe, as well.
Blair is joining German Chancellor Schroeder and French President Chirac for a three-way summit this weekend. We'll see if they come up with any meaningful progress on the Iraq mess. With expectations low, they have a good chance of surprising everyone if they accomplish anything at all.
Tags: iraq war, tony blair
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