Anthony Cordesman of CSISAnthony Cordesman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) has just been to Iraq and has a report on the progress of the war as he sees it: The Tenuous Case for Strategic Patience in Iraq: A Trip Report 08/06/07.
Cordesman in all the material of his that I've read on the Iraq War, has been consistent in placing his support for the war effort in the context of a reality-based look at the serious difficulties it faces. That is also the case for this latest paper:
From my perspective, the US does not have good options in Iraq and cannot dictate its future, only influence it. It is Iraqis that will shape Iraq's ability or inability to rise above its current sectarian and ethnic conflicts, to redefine Iraq's politics and methods of governance, establish some level of stability and security, and move towards a path of economic recovery and development.Tags: anthony cordesman, iraq war
The US can influence this process, and can still do a great deal of good. It may be able to push the Iraqis in the right direction and at a pace where the odds of success are significantly higher than they would be without a sustained US presence and intervention. The US cannot, however, prevent the pace of Iraqi progress from having major delays and reversals. US troop levels almost certainly can be reduced sharply over time on an Iraqi capabilities-based level, but many aspects will play out over a period that may well take a decade.
US policy will also have to steadily adapt and evolve over time. It will have to react to events, rather than shape them, and do so in a climate in which the odds of success in any given area are often less than even. Like it or not, the US can only achieve even moderate success by a sustained search for the least bad option, and will have to face years in which it must operate in a climate in which it also will have to search for the least bad uncertainty. (my emphasis)
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