Iran War update

Josh Marshall's growing TPM media operation has been providing some helpful video summaries on the significance of the new National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) on the Iranian nuclear program. This one is called "Inside the Iran Bamboozle". Notice that Josh manages to say straightforwardly that Cheney and Bush have been trying to prepare the country for war against Iran. Good for him!



It's certainly worth noting that Seymour Hersh was telling the public about this developing NIE over a year ago, TPM also provides a video of a recent CNN interview with Hersh.

Notice that Hersh says this report has been circulating at the "highest levels" in Cheney's government for at least a year and "probably longer". All the while they were working up a case for war against Iran, for a long time based on the alleged nuclear weapons threat.



Here are links to some of Hersh's New Yorker articles on Iran:

The Iran Plans: Would President Bush go to war to stop Tehran from getting the bomb? 04/17/06

Last Stand: The military’s problem with the President’s Iran policy 07/10/06

The Next Act: Is a damaged Administration less likely to attack Iran, or more? 11/27/06. This is the article in which Hersh discusses the CIA findings that Iran had discontinued its nuclear weapons program in 2003. Hersh reported that the White House (meaning at least Cheney) didn't want to hear that. They wanted propaganda to justify war:

The White House’s dismissal of the C.I.A. findings on Iran is widely known in the intelligence community. Cheney and his aides discounted the assessment, the former senior intelligence official said. "They’re not looking for a smoking gun," the official added, referring to specific intelligence about Iranian nuclear planning. "They’re looking for the degree of comfort level they think they need to accomplish the mission."

The Redirection: Is the Administration’s new policy benefitting our enemies in the war on terrorism? 03/05/07. Talks about Iran as a political factor in Iraq.

Shifting Targets: The Administration’s plan for Iran 10/08/07

One aspect of this story that shouldn't get entirely lost is the fact that Ayatollah Khamenei has said that the possession and use of nuclear weapons is against the Islamic religion. (See Fishing for a Pretext to Squeeze Iran by Juan Cole Truthdig.com 03/13/06) Sure, he could be faking, and he could always issue a new declaration based on changed circumstances. It would be foolish and reckless to take the assurance at face value.

But it's also foolish and potentially reckless to just ignore counter-indications, as well. If Iran hawks are pointing to President Ahmadenijad's religious fanaticism as evidence that Iran would be undeterrable with a nuclear weapon, shouldn't the talking heads chattering about this on TV at least take into account that Khamenei, the actual holder of the highest power in the Iranian theocracy especially when it comes to foreign policy and issues of war and peace, is explicitly condemns the possession of nuclear weapons as un-Islamic.

Robert Scheer writes today in It Turns Out Ahmadinejad Was the Truthful One Truthdig.com 12/05/07:

The whole episode shows that our democratic system retains at least some essential checks and balances, but it also is depressing to see that, in this instance at least, the fanatical leader of a theocracy seems to have a higher regard for truth than does the president of the world’s greatest experiment in representative democracy.

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who took office as Iran’s president in August of 2005, two years after Iran’s nuclear weapons program ended, has now been vindicated in his claims that Iran has abandoned the weaponization program. Not so Bush, who has summarily dismissed the intelligence community’s findings and, using his favorite tactic in dealing with debacles, is sticking to his original story. A story, as in the case of the earlier Iraq threat inflation, that too many in the mass media and Congress, including some leading Democrats, have bought.

Scheer's Truthdig site also features a podcast on the NIE and its significance by Scott Ritter, Scott Ritter on the NIE Report and War With Iran 12/04/07. Ritter has cast himself as a prickly Paul Revere warning about the danger of the Cheney-Bush administration launching an unnecessary war against Iran.

This is the PBS Newshour report on the NIE, which includes prowar comments by Missouri Republican Sen. Kit Bond, one of the most hardcore torture supporters in Congress: U.S. Policy on Iran Under New Scrutiny after Weapons Report 12/04/07. Unfortunately, the Democratic "balancing" guest, West Virigina Sen. Jay Rockefeller, discussed the issue mildly and blandly, while torture-lover Bond pimped the administration's line with enthusiasm, repeatedly talking about how Iran had been actively supporting efforts to kill "our troops", and twice mentioned the charge, based on a dubious translation, that Iran wants to "wipe Israel off the map". Or, in Bond's formulation, "the leader has promised to wipe Israel off the map." (See the Juan Cole article linked above on the translation issue.)

The Newshour also reported on the story in Iran Halted Nuclear Arms Program in 2003, Report Finds 12/03/07. That report features David Kay, who wrote one of the reports that confirmed that Iraq had no WMDs at the time of the 2003 invasion.

And our Dear Leader is still ready to plow ahead with his anti-Iranian policy, apparently unchanged by the NIE's information, at least in what he says in this TPM video of his statement today. His demand that Iran "come clean with the international community" is very reminiscent of his pre-Iraq War posturing.



Tags: david kay, iran war, josh marshall, nonproliferation, nuclear nonproliferation, robert scheer, scott ritter, seymour hersh