Showing posts with label iran war. Show all posts
Showing posts with label iran war. Show all posts

Friday, October 05, 2018

Repeat after me: War.Is.A.Bad.Thing.

"There is a very real possibility that Donald Trump will start a new war in the Middle East, Joe Cirincione warns in
Trump’s March To War With Iran LobeLog 10/04/2018. "If that’s not his intention, then his administration is doing a damn good job of faking it."

He flags next month as an important possible escalation moment. "In early November, the administration will hit countries doing business with Iran with a new round of harsh sanctions. The likelihood that this pressure will explode into military conflict is rising dramatically."

A good result cannot be expected, except for weapons manufacturers and assorted other war profiteers:
War with Iran would be a painful and pointless disaster. It would make the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan look like warm-up acts. It would cost trillions of dollars, kill tens of thousands of people and destabilize an already volatile region. It would trigger a global recession as oil prices spike and uncertainty collapses markets. It would also drive the spread of nuclear weapons and increase the risk of nuclear weapons use.

War would not in any conceivable scenario lead to the establishment of a popular, democratic, and pro-Western government in Iran. With war would come chaos. If the current regime were to fall, the power would pass not to demonstrators in the streets but to those with the guns—the Revolutionary Guard. In all likelihood, war would bring to power a more virulent, more dictatorial, and more anti-American regime than the current one in Iran. [my emphasis]
As Cirincione sees it, National Security Advisor and professional warmonger John Bolton has free reign at the moment to pursue military confrontation with Iran aimed a regime change.

A war with Iran is a really, really bad idea.

Friday, May 18, 2018

US power shifts

Gordon Adams uses a foreign-policy realist approach to poke holes in a fond bipartisan assumption, "Both liberal Democrats and conservative Republicans are struggling to recreate a myth: that the US dominates the world by dint of power, values, wisdom, even God’s decisions. America, and only America, can bring order and security to the world. Any other option spells chaos." (Beyond Hegemony And A Liberal International Order LobeLog 05/17/2018)

I have a love-hate relationship with the "realist" school of foreign policy, prominently represented today by Stephen Walt, John Mearsheimer, and Famous earlier realists included Kenneth Walz, George Kennan, Reinhold Neibuhr, and Hans Morgenthau. I've been guilty in the past of confusing Hans Morgenthau with Henry Morgenthau, Jr., who served as Secretary of Treasury 1934-1945. The latter was involved in major foreign policy issues. But Hans Morgenthau is the one renowned for his theoretical contributions to foreign policy studies, notably with his 1948 book Politics Among Nations.

The article on Hans Morgenthau in the ever-trusty Encyclopaedia Britannica summarizes the bare bones of his Realist theory this way:
... Morgenthau maintained that politics is governed by distinct immutable laws of nature and that states could deduce rational and objectively correct actions from an understanding of these laws. Central to Morgenthau’s theory was the concept of power as the dominant goal in international politics and the definition of national interest in terms of power. His state-centred approach, which refused to identify the moral aspirations of a state with the objective moral laws that govern the universe, maintained that all state actions seek to keep, demonstrate, or increase power. He called for recognition of the nature and limits of power and for the use of traditional methods of diplomacy, including compromise.
On the one hand, that formulation doesn't work for me as an approach to foreign policy, because it suggests a kind of amorality in life-and-death decisions involving war and peace, and suggests an indifference or irrelevance to considerations of forms of government and ruling ideologies. That's the second part of my love/hate relationship with it. Also because the famous war criminal Henry Kissinger is thought to be a practitioner of it. The fact that I first encountered the theory in a conservative text in my first college political science class, which was also taught by a hardcore Nixon-Agnew conservative professor, probably adds to its bad vibe for me.

The "love" part is my experience that practitioners of the realist approach has to do with the fact that they often come up with a more realistic practical assessment of foreign policy situations than more explicitly ideological approaches. The realist view has its own ideological implications, but let's leave that aside for now. Approaching issues while seriously trying to apply the realist assumptions means one has to think carefully about how the leaders and political actors of other countries are making judgments about their own national interests. And the realist approaches assumes that all countries view their national interests in ways that at least implicitly have general legitimacy. Done right, it provides a counter-balance to the temptation to assume the outcome that would be most congenial to one's own ideology or interests is the most likely one. And recognizes that what may look like an important but secondary stake for one country may be regarded by another as an existential matter.

The adherents of the realist view viewed the "unipolar moment" of the global dominance of the United States after the fall of the Eastern Bloc governments and of the USSR as an inevitably transitory state of affairs. They predicted that other countries would seek ways to counter the overwhelming American dominance and create new alliances and approaches in pursuit of that goal. And, in fact, that process has proceeded as expected. Jeremi Suri described those shifting balances in an article from the transition time between the Presidential election and the beginning of Trump's Administration, Blustering Toward Armageddon The American Prospect 01/03/2017. His focus is on the major ways that the incoming Trump Administration might manage that shifting matrix of power relations in a way that could lead to disaster. Although his well-founded pessimism about Trump's ability to manage foreign affairs successfully also seems to be influenced by a perhaps overconfident faith in the ability of the US to be a benign influence in the Middle East, in particular.

Gordon Adams is skeptical that the two major parties fully appreciate that we are undergoing a "fundamental shift in global realities—the centrifugal redistribution of power and influence in the international system that has brought to an end the 'American century.' The United States has become just another power in a system for which it no longer sets or enforces the rules, if it ever really did."

But Adams thinks the Democrats are generally being unrealistic about what the feasible alternatives to Trumpist foreign policy are: "Both political parties fail to cope with this reality. Democrats and liberals insist that Trump’s foreign-policy decisions threaten the 'rules-based' international order America built and dominated. A simple change in leadership, they believe, can restore order and America’s primacy."

And he sounds considerably more skeptical than Jeremi Suri about the American ability to shape political matters in the Middle East to our liking:
In the Middle East, the power shift is palpable. The United States has treated Iran as a pariah since 1979, trying to stuff the ayatollahs back into some imaginary bottle, hoping that they will go away or be overthrown. This approach has failed, and the withdrawal from the nuclear deal will only make that failure more evident. Iran is a regional power, defending its interests, engaging other powers and movements inside and outside the region, such as Russia. US regime change in Iraq not only destabilized the region but helped usher the Iranians into this active regional role. The other influential countries in the region, particularly Saudi Arabia and Israel, will have to deal with this reality.

In addition to these three countries, Russia is also key to regional stability and instability. There’s no way of pushing the Russians out, short of direct conflict. Nor can Turkey be forced to comply with American policy. It is clearly asserting its own interests and influence in three directions at the same time: Central Asia and Russia, Europe, and the Middle East. The invasion of Iraq may have helped open this Pandora’s box. The US is rapidly becoming a marginal player in the chaotic security environment of the Middle East.
Leon Hadar adds a provocative wrinkle to this picture (Trump's Strategy for the Middle East Is Working The National Interest 05/17/2018):
... perhaps Americans should be experiencing a certain sense of pleasure, or Schadenfreude as they watch the Russians being drawn into what could prove to be a long and costly effort to “do something” in response to the growing military tensions between Israel and Iran and its allies in Syria, the Kremlin’s Middle Eastern protectorate. Good luck with that, President Putin!
He has a point!

Hadar recites some of the history of the US involvement in the Middle East. Which is not a story of "winning," which our current President pretends to think is the whole point of foreign policy. While we can certainly understand Russia's current expansion of influence in the Middle East as an instance of the Realist theory playing out in the real world, that doesn't mean that it hurts the United States more than it helps. And while the US should certainly try to promote peaceful relations in the Middle East, including a decent settlement of the Israel-Palestine conflict, if Russia's luck in the region resembles that of the US the last couple of decades, that's a fate one should only wish onto an enemy.

Hadar argues:
While no one will be forcing the United States out of the Middle East anytime soon, it is true that under both former President Barack Obama and his successor in office, President Donald Trump, the decision not to intervene directly in the civil war in Syria, can be seen as part of an effort to reduce the level of U.S. military intervention in the Middle East. That does not amount to “isolationism” but it certainly challenges the axiom that Washington is required to immediately “do something” to resolve this or that conflict in the Middle East.
I tend to think he's overoptimistic there about American restraint. Obama did show a practical awareness that getting sucked in to a large intervention in the Syrian civil war would be a bad idea. But his Administration did try to put the American finger on the scales there, including direct support to some very dubious anti-government rebels. And the Obama/Hillary intervention in Libya with France and Britain was a reckless action with negative long-term consequences, and a disaster in the short-run, too. Albeit not as gigantic a disaster as the Iraq War. And I don't see that Trump has any policy goal as consistent as what Hadar calls "Trump’s goal of reducing U.S. military presence in the Middle East since it supposedly would lead to a confrontation between the United States and Iran."

Hadar may also have been letting hope get the better of judgment in his Don't Expect President Trump to Invade Iran The National Interest 02/21/2018. In the three months since then, Trump has brought on John Bolton as National Security Adviser and a buildup for a war with Iran sure looks like it's in process. But he does take a worthwhile shot at the way that the "Munich analogy" has served as musical accompaniment to some really bad foreign policy decisions:
For much of the post-1945 era, Western leaders, applying the lessons of World War II, operated under the assumption that the adoption of a policy of appeasement towards Nazi Germany, symbolized by the agreement that the British and French leaders signed with Adolf Hitler in Munich in 1938, helped encourage German military aggression that eventually led to the breakout of war in Europe.

The result was that the United States and its Western allies held to the conviction that they needed to avert another Munich, which meant that they had to adopt a tough and uncompromising diplomatic and military stand against any potential aggressor, whom they were quick to compare to another Hitler.

So if Egyptian nationalist Gamal Abdel Nasser and Vietnamese leader Ho Chi Minh were “like Hitler,” failing to use military power in response to any bellicose action on their part would amount to appeasement.





Friday, May 11, 2018

Bernie Sanders on the new conflict with Iran

Bernie criticizes Trump's decision to breach the Iran nuclear agreement in this interview with The Young Turks' Cenk Uygar, Bernie Sanders On Trump's Withdrawal From Iran Nuclear Treaty 05/10/2018:



Sanders is holding a discussion on Iran this coming Monday, which he's calling an emergency town hall.

Thursday, May 10, 2018

Iran War: An early skirmish?

With the Trump Administration now laying the groundwork for war with Iran - to the extent that an Administration headed by an orange man-child can coherently do such a thing - it's worth paying close attention to news reports that provide justifications for such a war.

Isabel Kershner reports in Israeli Warplanes Hit Dozens of Iranian Targets in Syria New York Times 05/10/2018 that Israel responded to an Iranian rocket attack from Syria.

Kershner carefully states that her sources on the rocket attack were official Israeli ones. she describes the attack this way:
Overnight, Iranian forces fired around 20 rockets at the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights, targeting forward positions of the Israeli military, according to an Israeli military spokesman. The rockets were all either intercepted or fell short of their mark in Syrian territory, the spokesman said, but were nevertheless a significant escalation in Iran’s maneuvers in the Middle East.

Though Israel has hit Iranian forces in Syria with a number of deadly airstrikes, Tehran has been restrained in hitting back, until now. The rocket attack against Israel appeared to be in response to Israeli strikes on southern Syria on Wednesday. ...

There was no immediate information about casualties in Syria. Israel reported none on its side. Colonel Conricus said the barrage of approximately 20 Grad and Fajr-5 rockets fired from Syria and aimed at Israeli positions after midnight was launched under the command of the [Iranian] Quds Force and utilized Iranian weapons. ...

The barrage came after an apparent Israeli missile strike against a village in the Syrian Golan Heights late Wednesday. [my emphasis]

She describes the Israeli response this way:

By Thursday morning, the country’s air force had destroyed “nearly all” of Iran’s military infrastructure in Syria, according to Israel’s defense minister, Avigdor Lieberman. ...

In all, at least 23 people were killed in the strikes, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a Britain-based monitoring group. The Syrian Army, by contrast, said that three people had died.

Israel’s strikes overnight were one of the country’s largest aerial operations in decades across the Syrian frontier, and by far its broadest direct attack yet on Iranian assets.

“This was an operation we prepared for, and were not surprised by,” said Lt. Col. Jonathan Conricus, a spokesman for the Israeli military.

In a statement, the military said the targets included what it described as Iranian intelligence sites; a logistics headquarters belonging to the Quds Force of the Revolutionary Guards; military compounds; munition storage warehouses of the Quds Force at Damascus International Airport; intelligence systems associated with those forces; and military posts and munition in the buffer zone between the Syrian Golan Heights and the Israeli-occupied portion of the strategic plateau.

There was no immediate information about casualties in Syria. Israel reported none on its side. [my emphasis]
Presumably that last statement means no information from the Israeli side, because she had just quoted numbers of deaths as reported by the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights and a lower number from the Syrian Army.

Based on that report, the Israeli strike was part of a series of military actions aimed against the Syrian government and its Iranian allies. Even if the Israeli report on what apparently was a distinctly ineffective military strike is accurate in attributing it to Iran, Israel's strike was obviously far out of proportion to that one incident.

But as Kershner's report makes clear, this is a part of a much longer series of attacks against Syria.

And in the larger scheme of things now, it is another in what is likely to be a series of steps toward war against Iran, a push which Trump escalated dramatically with his announced this week that the US would breech the Iranian nuclear agreement (JCPOA).

Robert Fisk is not a reporter much liked by Iran War hawks. But he's one of the best reporters on the Middle East in Western media. He writes about the strike today, too, begin with this framing comment (In the Middle East right now, all sides in this complex battle are staring at each other with increasing concern Independent 05/10/2018):
In the West, it’s easy to concentrate on each daily drama about the Middle East and forget the world in which the real people of the region live. The latest ravings of the American president on the Iran nuclear agreement – mercifully, at last, firmly opposed by the EU – obscure the lands of mass graves and tunnels in which the Muslim Middle East now exists. Even inside the area, there has now arisen an almost macabre disinterest in the suffering that has been inflicted here over the past six years. It’s Israel’s air strikes in Syria that now takes away the attention span.
The US and Russia are both heavily involved, the Russians with more direct forces on the ground:
Yes, the Russians are going to be around for quite a while.

So are the Israelis. Their earlier attack on Iranian forces in Syria – of which there appear to be far fewer than the West imagines, although there are many pro-Iranian Hezbollah fighters still in the country – came suspiciously close to the Trump announcement reneging on the US nuclear agreement with Iran. And an Israeli statement that the Iranians had missiles in Syria was surely made in concert with the Trump administration – it came within hours, and coincidences don’t run that close in the Middle East.

Tuesday, May 08, 2018

The Trump-Bolton march to war with Iran is underway

Trump came out and lied some more lies that is a big step toward the war with Iran that the new National Security Adviser John Bolton has been wanting for years, WATCH LIVE: Trump to announce decision on Iran nuclear deal 05/08/2018:







And, hey, why not go for regime change in Venezuela at the same time?



Also from Trita Parsi:

War With Iran Won’t Be Iraq All Over Again. It’ll Be Much Worse. HuffPost 03/30/2018

I'm feeling the 2002 nostalgia, and not in a good way. A build-up to war with Iran in the fall could make a huge difference in the midterms. Because too many Democrats will try to weasel around opposing the war on the theory that, something or other. It's just the Democrats' default position.

Wednesday, May 02, 2018

Iran, the US, and weak European foreign policy

The Beltway Village press has clearly decided yet again that Trump has become Presidential because the South Korean President met with Kim Jong-un. Amped Up Expectations Ahead Of President Donald Trump’s Planned Meeting With North Korea MSNBC 04/30/2018:



Part of that segment has decent information.

But would it be too much to expect the TV pundits to talk about Trump's nicey-nice rhetoric for a day or two on North Korea and how that might relate to the signs that John Bolton may be about to get his Iran War? (Apparently it is too much to expect.)

Then there's that small matter that every potential target of US wars has surely noticed: Saddam Hussein did away with his WMDs, and the US invaded and overthrew him. Muammar Khaddafi gave up his WMD programs and the US, Britain, and France intervened for a regime change operation. Nice people or not, any leader that wants to stay in power and would prefer not to be invaded by the United States will certainly be looking at those precedents when negotiating a nuclear disarmament deal with the US.

And since we all are supposed to talk like Cold Warriors these days, there's also the precedent of Ukraine giving up its nukes and then getting invaded and partially annexed by Russia, although that took a good decade longer than with Libya.

So from what I can tell, a meaningful agreement for nuclear arms control with North Korea is still a long way away. And it's unlikely in the extreme that NK will agree to any near-term full denuclearization, despite the fact that Trump keeps claiming that they've already committed to doing so.

If the US pulls out of the Iranian nuclear deal, it's by no means certain that Iran will maintain it with the European participants, as Ellie Geranmayeh warns in Europe’s Balancing Act On Nuclear Deal: Wooing Trump Without Losing Iran LobeLog Foreign Policy 05/02/2018. "In the process of wooing Washington on this bigger and better deal, Europe must ensure it does not end up losing Tehran, whose buy-in will be essential to succeeding in this effort," she writes.

Über-Realist Stephen Walt observes, "In response to Trump’s threats to leave the agreement, three key European leaders — French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, and British Prime Minister Theresa May — have gone to great lengths to persuade Trump to do the right thing." (Europe Has No Clue How to Handle an American Bully Foreign Policy 05/02/2018

He judges their approach harshly, "The practical result of all this sucking up was disastrous. The top European powers had effectively caved in to the Trump administration’s view that the Iran deal is inadequate and has to be either replaced or supplemented by additional agreements."

And he observes:
Europe’s near-supine deference to Washington is not healthy, because it just encourages and enables America’s worst instincts. Caving into a bully may spare you some pain in the short term, but it reinforces the bully’s belief that threats and bluster invariably succeed. Do these people seriously think Donald Trump will appreciate what they are doing and reward them in the future? Have they been paying attention?

If the Iran deal eventually dies, in short, Macron, May, and Merkel will need to reflect on their contribution to its demise. Trump will deserve most of the blame, of course, but the Europeans’ misguided efforts to appease Trump in the hope of saving the deal will have played a role as well.

Monday, April 02, 2018

Confederate "Heritage" Month 2018, April 2: "Regime change" in the South

I'm going to engage in some detail with Forrest's Nabor's arguments in his book, From Oligarchy to Republicanism (2017) .

But I do want to say something about his enthusiasm for "regime change," a term he repeatedly uses in an approving sense for Reconstruction. He even implicitly criticizes Andrew Jackson in the Nullification Controversy for not sending in federal troops to South Carolina instead of resolving the dispute nonviolently while clearly upholding the Constitution and federal supremacy.

Those of us who have been engaging the pseudohistorical arguments of the Lost Cause for a while have learned to be alert for formulations that may be read as sidelining slavery as the central cause of the Civil War. As anyone who has been doing so is aware, all those arguments wind up back with slavery at the center when you pull on the string a bit.

Nabor argues, "The ultimate goal of the Republican Party, the war, and Reconstruction was the same, to preserve and advance republicanism as the American founders understood it and wished it to be advanced, against its natural, existential enemy, oligarchy." He's making an argument that the North was a republic, while the future Confederate states developed into the political form of oligarchy. This argument doesn't have to lead to ignoring slavery's overriding importance. It can even clarify important aspects of the process that lead to civil war.

It even sounds like an approach that Bernie Sanders and his fans might favor. But sometimes progressive-sounding formulations are deceptive. And given the disasters of American foreign policy adventures aimed at regime change in recent years (and no so recent ones) his stress on "regime change" as the Northern project for the South should raise an eyebrow.

Earlier this year, Nabor published a prowar piece at The Federalist website, Why The Time Is Ripe For A Free Iran 01/11/2018. He writes:
If different types of political regimes are plants that grow, the soil is the people, and different types of soil determine what kind of political regime is possible in a given nation. The rise, prosperity, or fall of a political regime depends upon the customs and temper of a people that have developed since time immemorial and are not easily changed.
This doesn't exactly sound like the kind of classical liberal republicanism that he enthusiastically promotes in his book. But it does have relevance to his version of the story of Reconstruction that he tells.

In retrospect, he says such was not the case in Iraq in 2003, i.e., the "customs and people" being ready, so it was a mistake to expect that. Although it's not clear in this article that he's criticizing the invasion rather than the neocon's starry-eyed expectations for exporting democracy in a kind of liberal-Trosksyist war of liberation.

But in the case of Iran 2018, Nabors is promoting the same kind of cheery expectations that pre-Iraq War neocons were pushing back then. And apparently with similar disdain for any realistic evaluation of the actual prospects:
In Iran the case is different. Iranians are a great people well prepared for successful self-government and boast one of the oldest and most refined cultures in human history. Unlike Sunni Islam, their version of Islam always recognized the separation of mosque and state, a tradition that Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini struggled to reconcile with his goal of preserving Islamic purity in modernity. He finally abandoned the attempt, but that tradition is still remembered by Shiites and has shaped the political principles that they hold today.

As American statesman James Madison observed, respect for religious liberty is the key to all liberties, and the Iranian people seem to be prepared to adopt this principle. Among Islamic peoples the Iranians are generally the least fundamentalist, the most highly educated, and more disposed to treat women equally. Iranian women are professors, lawyers, doctors, engineers, and in business.

The practice of some crucial democratic norms in Iran is 100 years old. Although Reza Shah forced the Iranian people to adopt western customs in the twentieth century, those customs have held. Although the ayatollahs established an Islamic Republic in 1979, the republican part was genuine. The all-powerful mullahs do superintend the government but to a considerable degree, their constitution has generally permitted the Iranian people to participate in political institutions.
Iraq was known in 2003 as having the most equal status for women among Arab countries and the professions were open to women there, too. This sounds for all the world like the pre-Iraq War propaganda that the Iraqi people would welcome us as liberators and be dancing in the streets, or whatever.

Let's just say it's doubtful that Iranians will welcome a war on their country by the US and whatever allies are foolish enough to jump on that bandwagon, no matter who much empty propaganda about bringing the blessings of liberty and democracy and equal rights for women to the Iranian people, who of course we love, and we will only be bombing and killings them because we love them them and care about their freedom so very much. Especially the Trump Administration. Especially if we're doing so in concert with Israel and Saudi Arabia, the latter of which is one of those backward Sunni nations Nabors gripes about.

Remember how prior to 2001, "Shiite" was a synonym for religious fanaticism in the American political vocabulary? Times change, I guess.

Nabors also expects great benefits. Do I need to recall the great benefits we were sure to get from a liberated Iraq? He writes, "That revolution in Iranian government could change the world vastly for the better. Around the globe, the positive influence of a friendly, self-governing Iran would be substituted for the negative influence of hostile mullahs. The change is badly needed." (my emphasis)

And he endorses the Trotskyist-neoconservative insistance on regime change wars. For the good of the conquered liberated, of course:
Most important of all, the Iranian people would finally regain possession of their liberty that we in the West believe all people have a right to enjoy. Western support, indifference, or opposition to this aim for which they are now bravely staking their lives is a grave moral question as well as one that involves our self-interest. [my emphasis]
Nabors in that article seems to be ignoring his own warning in the book:
Regime change is unpredictable and often produces deformed progeny rather than the perfect offspring prayed for. ... .. even the destruction of the worst regime and the attempt to substitute a better regime can release unanticipated new evils into society that had been held in abeyance by the old regime.
And he immediately links that comparison to the disastrous results of the Iraq War. He draws this parallel to Reconstruction, "regime change in the South after the Civil War precipitated appalling violence upon black Americans." (my emphasis) One who has paid attention to the various forms in which neo-Confederate assumptions pop up in surprising place, it's significant that in that formulation, Nabors puts the blame for the terrorist violence practiced again African-Americans in the South during Reconstruction on the regime change imposed by the victorious federal government. Nabors seeming preference for the "republican" form over government over the oligarchical one in the book can apparently functions as a two-edged blade.

He continues, "The prior oligarchic regime [in the South before the Civil War] created the hatreds and rivalries, but while the oligarchy ruled, it restrained mass violence. When the armies of the North brought republican government to the South, they not only liberated the people, but also unchained those latent hatreds." It's not at all difficult to read that statement as saying the slaveowners kept white racist violence under control, but the damnyankees came and messed everything up and they're to blame for all the beatings, lynchings, and murders of black people that occurred after the war. He even cites neoconservative philosophical guru Leo Strauss to support part of that position.

In later posts, I'll look more at how he develops that line of argument.

Referring to Nabors' contemporary political advocacy, or war advocacy in this case, isn't meant as an ad hominem dismissal of his historical argument.

But neo-Confederate pseudohistory is also highly ideological, and for many it forms part of a worldview that is very much focused on current goals. So it's worth keeping in mind.

Tuesday, August 29, 2017

We've been down this road before

And we'll be living with the consequences for a long time. From the previous one, I mean, i.e., the invasion of Iraq 2003.

Julian Borger, White House 'pressuring' intelligence officials to find Iran in violation of nuclear deal The Guardian 08/28/2017.

Yes, we've been down this road before.

Tuesday, August 11, 2015

Trump extremism and the state of the Republcian Party

This piece from Dan Drezner focuses on the economics of conservative media: Why Donald Trump got the best of Fox News Washington Post 08/11/2015.

But it's also a reminder about how strong the mainstream media groupthink on politics is. Our pod pundits all assume that "America is a center-right country" (as they say all the time); that they themselves are spokespeople for this sacred moderation (the High Broderism phenomenon); that the two parties are symmetrically grouped around the sacred center (Both Sides Do It so Bernie Sanders must be the mirror image of Donald Trump); and that there are always sensible moderates (like the bold Maverick John McCain) to balance off the more flamboyant loudmouths like Trump. They ignore the real Republican elephant in the room, which is that the Republican Party has lost its mind (as Krugman puts it). More specifically, their fanaticism and overt meanness is growing by the year and there seems to be no obvious internal corrective to it within the party.

Pundits who imagine the stone-conservative and mean John McCain as a moderate maverick were astonished that Republican base didn't see things like that.

Of course, the Republican base voters love Trump's attacks on women and immigrants, the latter also doubling as attacks on black people. And as the Republican Party becomes more fanatical, the pundits' imaginary Both Sides Do It assumption helps move the "center" more and more into the crazy lane. The "moderate" position on abortion in the Republican Party now seems to be banning abortion in all circumstances but, maybe possibly having an exception for saving the life of the mother.

Steve M shows how Trump is also ramping it up on war: Will Trump Make the War Party Even More Warlike? No More Mister Nice Blog 08/11/2015. Quoting a more-or-less unhinged rant of Trump's about bombing Iran to fight ISIS, or something, Steve M writes (emphasis in original):

Do you think any Republican candidate, at any debate, could say anything that would get a greater round of applause than this? The cheers will go on for several minutes. It will be next to impossible to silence the crowd. Within 48 hours there'll be "Knock the Hell Out of Them and Take Their Oil" T-shirts, and they'll be huge sellers. And this from the guy who still says -- in the clip, in fact -- that he opposed the Iraq War.

He's going to be the guy who makes multiple full-scale wars in the Middle East the minimal acceptable position for Jeb Bush, or whoever the eventual nominee is -- none of the intermediate steps the other candidates have proposed will be acceptable. No wussy increased aid to foreign fighters. None of this mamby-pamby talk about merely tightening the sanction screws on Iran. Oh, and no more coddling Saudi Arabia, either, I guess. "Kill 'em all" might really be the policy the eventually nominee will have to take into the general election, the way "deport 'em all" usually is on immigration.
There are a lot of things about campaigns, especially Presidential campaigns, that have to come together. TVs ads and outrageous comments to the press won't be enough. Trump's campaign will have to put together a "ground game" in the primary states if he's actually going to get the Republican nomination. So the odds against his becoming the Republican candidate are still high.

But he's already pushing the "Overton Window" even more to the right within the Republican Party.

Wednesday, February 27, 2013

Iran, Cuba, Iraq? Just how well do US sanctions work?

Hillary Mann Leverett and Flynt Leverett write about The coming collapse of Iran sanctions Aljazeera English 02/25/2013. They sketch this history of US sanctions against Iran:

Virtually since the 1979 Iranian revolution, US administrations have imposed unilateral sanctions against the Islamic Republic. These measures, though, have not significantly damaged Iran's economy and have certainly not changed Iranian policies Washington doesn't like.

Between 2006 and 2010, America got the UN Security Council to adopt six resolutions authorising multilateral sanctions against Iran - also with limited impact, because China and Russia refused to allow any resolution to pass that would have harmed their interests in Iran.

Beyond unilateral and multilateral measures against Iran's economy, the US has, since 1996, threatened to impose "secondary" sanctions against third-country entities doing business with the Islamic Republic. In recent years, Congress has dramatically expanded the range of activities subject to such sanctions, going beyond investments in Iranian oil and gas production to include simple purchases of Iranian crude and almost all financial transactions.

This year, Congress blacklisted transfers of precious metals to Iran, to make it harder for Tehran to repatriate export earnings or pay for imports in gold. Congress has also increased the sanctions that can be imposed on offending entities, including their cut-off from the US financial system.
We've had sanctions on Cuba for decades, inflicting a considerable amount of privation on the people there, but without bringing about the overthrow of the regime.

Our sanctions on Iraq after the Gulf War didn't bring down Saddam. But they were one element of a continuing policy that led eventually to a new war.

As the Leveretts point out, US sanctions against Iran are currently under pressure from both Europe and China.

Gareth Porter reviews the Leveretts' recent book, Going to Tehran: Why the United States Must Come to Terms with the Islamic Republic of Iran (2013), in Former Insiders Criticise Iran Policy as U.S. Hegemony Inter Press Service 02/25/2013.

Bob Dreyfuss observes, "Despite years of war-whooping and crisis-mongering on Iran, it's beginning to sink in that Iran’s nuclear program doesn’t represent much of a threat. In fact, Iran has been taking steps on the ground to reassure the most hawkish observers, including Israel, that a bomb isn't imminent." (Progress in Iran Talks: Can We Stop the War-Whooping Now? The Nation 02/27/2013).

Argentina isn't an especially close ally of the US. But Iran's recent agreement with them over the 1994 bombing of the AMIA Jewish community center in Buenos Aires may shows some diplomatic flexibility on Iran's part. Marcela Valente reports on that agreement in Argentina Strikes Deal with Iran to Probe AMIA Bombing Suspects Inter Press Service 02/22/2013.

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Monday, September 10, 2012

Joschka Fischer on global economic risks of an attack on Iran

Former German Foreign Minister Joschka Fischer wonders if we're looking at An Autumn Abyss? Project Syndicate 08/29/2012. His worry in this column focuses Middle East unrest and especially on the possibility of a war with Iran:

No one can predict the direction in which Egypt's Sunni Islamist president and parliamentary majority will lead the country. But one thing is clear: the Sunni Islamists are decisively altering the region’s politics. This regional re-alignment need not be necessarily anti-Western, but it surely will be if Israel and/or the United States attack Iran militarily. ...

A war in the Persian Gulf – still the world's gas station – would affect oil exports for some time, and energy prices would skyrocket, dealing a severe blow to a global economy that is teetering on the brink of recession.

China, already in economic trouble, would be hit hardest, along with the whole of East Asia. With the US also economically weakened and facing a presidential election, America’s leadership ability would be seriously constricted. And could a weakened Europe cope with an oil shock at all? A regional and global security shock caused by asymmetric warfare could add still further to the world economy’s troubles, causing exports to slump even more. [my emphasis]
The Western standoff with Iran won't end tomorrow, and there has been ebb and flow in the current phase, the dispute of Iran's nuclear capability, for years already.

Armin Azad argues that the recent summit of the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) nations in Teheran has bolstered Iran's negotiating position (What Cable News didn’t Tell You: The Non-Aligned Movement Meeting Strengthened Iran’s Hand vs. US, Israel Informed Comment 09/04/2012):

No matter how the Iranian authorities present the results of this conference, the wide participation in the meeting could also be indicative of another point: many countries feel unhappy about being pressured by the U.S to take positions and/or act in ways in which they are not comfortable with or do not serve their interests. In this sense, their positions in the meeting might be interpreted as a sign of protest to the US and Israeli policies – rather than enthusiastic support for Iran.

However, the strong support of Non-Aligned movement for Iran's right to peaceful nuclear energy and particularly the right to have a full nuclear fuel cycle (uranium enrichment) may have the immediate impact of strengthening Iranian hand in its show down with the West over its nuclear issue. It may also make it more difficult for Israel to push forward its campaign to attack Iranian nuclear facilities.
And Jim Lobe and Gareth Porter report for After Dempsey Warning, Israel May Curb War Threat Inter Press Service, 09/05/2012:

... Obama has gone further than ever before in warning Netanyahu not to expect U.S. backing in any war with Iran. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Martin Dempsey told reporters in Britain Aug. 30 that an Israeli strike would be ineffective, and then said, “I don’t want to be complicit if they (the Israelis) choose to do it.”

It was the first time that a senior U.S. official had made such an explicit public statement indicating the administration’s unwillingness to be a party to a war provoked by a unilateral Israeli attack. ...

One of Romney’s senior advisers, former CIA chief Gen. Michael Hayden, has even partially echoed Dempsey, telling the Israeli newspaper Haaretz Thursday that an Israeli raid against Iran’s nuclear facilities would likely be counter-productive.

Both Hayden’s and Dempsey’s remarks about the futility or counter-productivity of an Israeli attack on Iran echoed those of a broad range of Israel’s national-security elite, including President Shimon Peres and the former chiefs of Israel’s intelligence agencies and armed forces, who, provoked by Netanyahu’s and Barak’s war talk, have come out more strongly than ever against the idea.
But that doesn't mean that there is no pressure for making war on Iran. Nor that the Obama Administration is being publicly unambiguous in its opposition to war. Reuters reports in U.S. admiral visits Israel, discusses Iran with Barak 09/06/2012:

A top U.S. general visited Israel's defense minister on Thursday and discussed Iran, in a display of solidarity after the two allies differed publicly over what they fear is Tehran's drive towards nuclear weapons capability.

The vice chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff Admiral James Winnefeld smiled broadly, exchanging pleasantries with Ehud Barak in his office in Tel Aviv in a brief video released by the Israeli Defense Ministry.

Barak later said that they had "discussed regional issues and Iran, of course".
And the fact that Obama scrambled last week to restore the foolishly reckless Democratic Party platform position accepting Jerusalem as Israel's capital is a reminder of how deferential this Administration is to hawkish Israeli policies.

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Wednesday, March 14, 2012

More on MEK supporters lobbying for a listed terrorist group, so far without prosecution

Alyona Minkovski of the The Alyona Show did a segment on the MEK lobbying story, MSM: Ed Rendell MEK Investigation 03/13/2012:



The YouTube segment includes the following summary:

All we hear is non-stop election coverage coming from the mainstream media; we also keep hearing a myth perpetuated by pundits and GOP candidates that rising gas prices actually have something to do with who's in office. And the President recently has been repeating a line to the press, regarding the fear mongering over Iran, that beating war drums might have an effect. However, there's something else Alyona will focus on that also fits into this equation. There have been political ads advocating for the MEK, an exiled Iranian group, to be delisted from the State Department's list of terrorist organizations. The MEK wants a change in the power structure in Iran and so do a lot of people in Washington. We've discussed this before, that there are a number of politicians and officials that have been paid by the MEK to give speeches and advocate on their behalf.
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Monday, March 12, 2012

Prominent Americans' paid advocacy for MEK terrorist group

Glenn Greenwald (Washington’s high-powered terrorist supporters 03/12/2012) and Marcy Wheeler (Ed Rendell Defends Material Support of the "Right" Terrorists Emptywheel 03/12/2012) are right, as they so often are: if the law is going to recognize advocacy in coordination with an officially-designated terrorist group as a crime, then advocates for the Mojahedin-e Khalq (MEK) should be prosecuted and imprisoned just as supporters of other officially-designated terrorist groups are. In my mind, agreeing to paid advocacy is even more serious than advocacy, though the law goes too far in criminalizing the latter.

MEK is a Kurdish terrorist group that supported Saddam Hussein and opposes the current Iranian regime. Glenn and Marcy aren't just indulging in hyperbole when they write that American supporters of the MEK are breaking the law. They are. The occasion of their posts is news that the Treasury Department is investigating for Democratic Gov. Ed Rendell of Pennsylvania for his paid advocacy on behalf of the MEK. And by paid advocacy, we're not talking about pocket money - at least not what most people would consider pocket change. Glenn reports:

As but one example, Rendell, the former Democratic Governor of Pennsylvania and current MSNBC contributor, was paid $20,000 for a 10- minute speech before a MEK gathering, and has been a stalwart advocate of the group ever since.

Even for official Washington, where elite crimes are tolerated as a matter of course, this level of what appears to be overt criminality — taking large amounts of money from a designated Terrorist group, appearing before its meetings, meeting with its leaders, then advocating on its behalf — is too much to completely overlook.
He cites Scott Peterson's report from last August, Iranian group's big-money push to get off US terrorist list Christian Science Monitor 08/08/2011:

The contracts can range up to $100,000 and include several appearances. They sometimes explicitly state, according to the State Dept. official, that "We are not a front organization for the MEK."

The speaking events have created some extraordinary spectacles, including that of US heavyweights sharing the stage with the MEK's self-declared "president-elect" Maryam Rajavi. At a mid-June MEK rally in Paris, for example, Mrs. Rajavi was flanked by five rows of former top US and European officials. The noisy throng of thousands of well-orchestrated MEK supporters, draped in yellow vests and waving flags, banners, and balloons as clouds of confettifell, looked like an American political convention.
Other Americans who have taken paid gigs advocating for the terrorist group include John Bolton, Andrew Card, Gen. Wesley Clark, Gen. James Conway, P.J. Crowley, Howard Dean, Louis Freeh, Rudy Giuliani, Porter Goss, Lee Hamilton (Mr. Democratic bipartisanship himself!), Michael Hayden, Gen. James Jones, Michael Mukasey, Gen. Peter Pace, Bill Richardson, Tom Ridge, Gen. Hugh Shelton, James Woolsey, Gen. Anthony Zinni, . Yes, that would be antiwar Democrat Howard Dean in that group. It's a happily well-paid bipartisan group, matching supposed foreign-policy pragmatists and liberal like Dean and Wesley Clark with blithering warmongers like James Woolsey and John Bolton. As Cyndi Lauper says, "Money, money changes everything."

Even if it weren't as blatantly illegal as it appears to be, it doesn't say anything good about the judgment of Howard Dean and Wesley Clark that they would choose to advocate for a nasty bunch like the MEK, for money or not. (Or any of the rest of them, for that matter; those were the two most surprising for me.) Peterson reports on the MEK itself:

US government documents frequently use the term "cult-like" when describing the MEK, and describe "years of ideological training" for members akin to "brainwashing." The MEK has long denied that it is a cult and routinely charges critics with being agents of the Islamic Republic.

The MEK says it renounced violence in 2001, after claiming responsibility for 350 attacks in 2000 and 2001, according to a RAND tabulation. It is not known to have carried out any attacks for several years, though a 2004 FBI report found that the group was "currently actively involved in planning and executing acts of terrorism."

That conclusion was based on wiretaps of calls between MEK bases and headquarters in Iraq, France, and Los Angeles that discussed "specific acts of terrorism to include bombings" – and were corroborated by French intelligence and German police wiretaps, according to the FBI report.

Militant groups can change. Both Sinn Fein in Northern Ireland and the Palestinian Liberation Organization, for example, used violence before becoming influential political forces in their own right. The MEK is one of those, say its increasing number of American advocates.
He notes that MEK's "record includes assassinations of US military advisers and attacks on US diplomats".

The MEK's lobbying push to get off the US terrorist list is closely related to efforts to promoting an American war with Iran, whose regime the MEK opposes.

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Monday, March 05, 2012

More on Obama and war with Iran

John Mearsheimer and Stephen Walt weigh in on the current US-Israel dispute over starting a war with Iran in Mr Obama must take a stand against Israel over Iran Financial Times 03/04/2012. (Be careful clicking around on the Financial Times site; they have a low limit on the number of free articles you can see per month.) Walt supplements it with The real disagreement between Obama and Netanyahu Foreign Policy 03/05/2012.

Walt summarizes the contrasting positions this way:

My basic take is that Netanyahu's view and Obama's view are essentially mirror-images of each other. Netanyahu says Iran is an "existential" threat to Israel, while he sees the Palestinians as just a problem to be managed. So he wants Iran's nuclear program ended, and by force if necessary, while the peace process drags on interminably. By contrast, Obama sees Iran as a problem to be managed through patient diplomacy, but he thinks the Palestinian issue is the real existential threat to Israel's future (and a continued liability for U.S. strategic interests). He'd like to put that one to rest ASAP, except that he's been forced to back down every time he's tried and he knows he can't say much about it between now and November.
Mearsheimer and Walt write of the Palestinian issue:

The gulf between Washington and Jerusalem is just as wide on the Palestinian issue. Mr Netanyahu opposed the 1993 Oslo accords, which sought to resolve the conflict and establish Palestinian self-rule. The only "state" he would countenance today is a set of disconnected and disarmed enclaves under de facto Israeli control. He was elected in 2009 on a platform rejecting Palestinian statehood, and his cabinet is populated with politicians who want to control the West Bank forever. His government continues to expel Palestinians from their homes in Jerusalem and the West Bank, and to expand Israeli settlements there.

By contrast, Mr Obama is committed to helping create a viable Palestinian state living alongside Israel in peace. As he said in Cairo in June 2009, a two-state solution is “in Israel’s interest, Palestine’s interest, America’s interest, and the world’s interest”. He knows the combination of US support for Israel and Israel’s treatment of the Palestinians fuels anti-Americanism throughout the Arab and Islamic world, and contributes to the global terrorism problem.

In fact, the Palestinian issue is the real existential threat to Israel. More than 500,000 Israeli Jews now live in the occupied territories, and continued settlement building will lead to a single state between the Jordan river and the Mediterranean sea. Given demographic trends, this “Greater Israel” could not be both a Jewish state and a full democracy. Instead, it would be an apartheid state, threatening Israel’s legitimacy and long-term survival. As Ehud Olmert, former prime minister, said in 2007, if the two-state solution fails, Israel "will face a South African-like struggle for equal voting rights". And if that happens, he warned, "the state of Israel is finished". [my emphasis]
More accurately, the state of Israel as a Jewish state will be finished. It can still be a democratic state with freedom of religion, depending on how the transition occurs.

Surprises can certainly happen, but it seems to me that the possibility for a two-state solution has approached the vanishing point.

Glenn Greenwald in Obama, Iran and preventive war Salon 03/05/2012 agrees that in his speech to AIPAC on Sunday, "part of what Obama was doing was denying Netanyahu’s demands that the American 'red line' be moved to where the Israeli 'red line' is." But he also notes that Obama was definitely threatening preventive war, which is illegal in international law, and illegal for very good reasons. Speaking of Obama's threats against Iran in his AIPAC speech, he writes:

Is that not the classic case of a "preventive" war (as opposed to a "preemptive" war), once unanimously scorned by progressives as "radical" and immoral when the Bush administration and its leading supporters formally adopted it as official national security doctrine in 2002? Back in 2010, Newsweek‘s Michael Hirsh documented the stark, fundamental similarities between the war theories formally adopted by both administrations in their national security strategies, but here we have the Bush administration’s most controversial war theory explicitly embraced: that the U.S. has the right not only to attack another country in order to preempt an imminent attack (pre-emptive war), but even to prevent some future, speculative threat (preventive war). Indeed, this was precisely the formulation George Bush invoked for years when asked about Iran. This theory of preventive war continues to be viewed around the world as patently illegal — Brazil’s Foreign Affairs Minister last week said of the "all-options-on-the-table" formulation for Iran: some of those options "are contrary to international law" — and before 2009, the notion of "preventive war" was universally scorned by progressives.

Again, one can find justifications, even rational ones, for President Obama’s inflexible commitment of a military attack on Iran: particularly, that this vow is necessary to stop the Israelis from attacking now (though it certainly seems that the U.S. would have ample leverage to prevent an Israeli attack if it really wanted to without commiting [sic] itself to a future attack on Iran). And I've noted many times that I believe that the Obama administration — whether for political and/or strategic reasons — does seem genuinely to want to avoid a war with Iran, at least for now. [my emphasis]
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Sunday, March 04, 2012

Obama to AIPAC and Israel: I'm not signing on for war yet

J Street's M.J. Rosenberg, who is very much opposed to going to war with Iran, gives President Obama high marks for what he calls Obama's Peace Speech At AIPAC TPM Cafe 03/04/2012:

Both Netanyahu and his lobby wanted Obama to set out "red lines" that, if crossed by Iran, would lead to an American attack on that country. Obama offered no red lines. Yes, he said that the war option was on the table but, contrary to Israel's demands, made clear that it would come into play if, and only if, Iran develops a weapon, not when it develops a weapons "capability" as Israel (and its Congressional acolytes demand). ...

Obama is saying he supports Israel's right to do what "is required to meet its security needs." But then enumerates that he will do what is in America's best interests, including diplomacy. In other words, "Bibi, you are on your own." And, because Israel cannot do it alone, Obama is telling Bibi that he is not getting his war.
Rosenberg also provides a good summary of the "red lines" business which we're hearing a lot about recently on the Iran issue.

Still, typical for Obama, he took a pro-peace position on the question of the moment, but framed it in a larger prowar perspective, another example of his strong tendency to justify Democratic positions on Republican terms, thus reinforcing the larger Republican narrative on the issue at hand. From the White House transcript:

That is where we are today -- because of our work. Iran is isolated, its leadership divided and under pressure. And by the way, the Arab Spring has only increased these trends, as the hypocrisy of the Iranian regime is exposed, and its ally -- the Assad regime -- is crumbling.

Of course, so long as Iran fails to meet its obligations, this problem remains unresolved. The effective implementation of our policy is not enough -- we must accomplish our objective. (Applause.) And in that effort, I firmly believe that an opportunity still remains for diplomacy -- backed by pressure -- to succeed.

The United States and Israel both assess that Iran does not yet have a nuclear weapon, and we are exceedingly vigilant in monitoring their program. Now, the international community has a responsibility to use the time and space that exists. Sanctions are continuing to increase, and this July -- thanks to our diplomatic coordination -- a European ban on Iranian oil imports will take hold. (Applause.) Faced with these increasingly dire consequences, Iran’s leaders still have the opportunity to make the right decision. They can choose a path that brings them back into the community of nations, or they can continue down a dead end. ...

We all prefer to resolve this issue diplomatically. Having said that, Iran’s leaders should have no doubt about the resolve of the United States -- (applause) -- just as they should not doubt Israel’s sovereign right to make its own decisions about what is required to meet its security needs. (Applause.)

I have said that when it comes to preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon, I will take no options off the table, and I mean what I say. (Applause.) That includes all elements of American power: A political effort aimed at isolating Iran; a diplomatic effort to sustain our coalition and ensure that the Iranian program is monitored; an economic effort that imposes crippling sanctions; and, yes, a military effort to be prepared for any contingency. (Applause.)
Even Rosenberg in praising the speech says, "I understand that Obama did not deliver a traditional 'peace' speech." Glenn Greenwald explains in Iran, threats and the UN Charter Salon 03/03/2012:

Regardless of how one wants to rationalize these threats of an offensive military attack — they’re necessary to persuade the Israelis not to attack, they’re necessary to gain leverage with Iran, etc. — the U.N. Charter, to which the U.S. is a signatory, explicitly prohibits not just a military attack on another nation, but also the issuance of threats of such an attack. From Chapter II, paragraph 4:

All Members shall refrain in their international relations from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of any state, or in any other manner inconsistent with the Purposes of the United Nations.
Does this matter at all? Should we even pretend to care in any way what the U.N. Charter prohibits and whether the U.S. Government’s threats to attack Iran directly violate its core provisions? I’m not asking this simple question rhetorically but rather to hear the answer.
Obama's interview with Jeffrey Goldberg in The Atlantic, Obama to Iran and Israel: 'As President of the United States, I Don't Bluff' 03/02/2012, certainly strikes a warlike tone:

PRESIDENT OBAMA: ... At the same time, we understand that the bottom line is: Does the problem get solved? And I think that Israel, understandably, has a profound interest not just in good intentions but in actual results. And in the conversations I've had over the course of three years, and over the course of the last three months and three weeks, what I've emphasized is that preventing Iran from getting a nuclear weapon isn't just in the interest of Israel, it is profoundly in the security interests of the United States, and that when I say we're not taking any option off the table, we mean it. We are going to continue to apply pressure until Iran takes a different course. ...

In addition to the profound threat that it poses to Israel, one of our strongest allies in the world; in addition to the outrageous language that has been directed toward Israel by the leaders of the Iranian government -- if Iran gets a nuclear weapon, this would run completely contrary to my policies of nonproliferation. The risks of an Iranian nuclear weapon falling into the hands of terrorist organizations are profound. It is almost certain that other players in the region would feel it necessary to get their own nuclear weapons. So now you have the prospect of a nuclear arms race in the most volatile region in the world, one that is rife with unstable governments and sectarian tensions. And it would also provide Iran the additional capability to sponsor and protect its proxies in carrying out terrorist attacks, because they are less fearful of retaliation.

GOLDBERG: What would your position be if Israel weren't in this picture?

PRESIDENT OBAMA: It would still be a profound national-security interest of the United States to prevent Iran from getting a nuclear weapon.
I would note that much of the language in Obama's AIPAC speech that suggest he's insisting on restraint by Israel is also included in the Atlantic interview.

Writing prior to Obama's AIPAC speech Sunday, Maureen Fiedler of NCR Today comments on War with Iran: the next lunacy? 03/02/2012:

Sometimes, when I read the usual news stories, I think I am transported back to those months before the U.S. attacked Iraq. The warnings were similar: Saddam Hussein might have nuclear weapons, or he had them. In any case, he was a danger and a dictator, and if we don't do something, a "mushroom cloud" might be in our future. It was fear-mongering, pure and simple -- and it was false.

Those warnings around Iraq, led by President George W. Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney, tried to justify war based on a possible threat, not an attack -- or even threat of attack -- against the United States. There are lots of dangerous nations in the world and lots of dictators and even would-be nuclear powers. If we attacked them all, we'd do nothing but fight wars.

But some politicians apparently see an electoral advantage in fear-mongering -- especially when it's a predominantly Muslim nation -- and so they continue to raise the "threat of Iran."

But this Iranian dance is just like the one in Iraq -- pure lunacy.
The United States really needs to be more assertive in demanding that Israel refrain from actions that potentially compromise US national interests. The US should also expect Israel to be a responsible partner when we act on their behalf. Robert Wright in Netanyahu's Latest Affront to Obama The Atlantic Online 03/02/2012 reports:

The most amazing headline of the day comes from the Israeli newspaper Haaretz: "Israel told U.S. Iran must halt enrichment ahead of nuclear talks, sources say." ...

For years, at the cost of great effort and diplomatic capital, the U.S. has painstakingly assembled a regime of international sanctions against Iran. And--let's be honest--it has done so largely on Israel's behalf. Now, finally, we seem to have gotten some payoff for this effort: Iran is saying it will resume negotiations, thus opening the door, however slightly, to a peaceful resolution of the current standoff.

Israel's way of saying thank you--to America and to the international community--is: "Sorry, we've decided we don't want negotiations resumed after all." And make no mistake: this is the message in that headline. Demanding that Iran suspend uranium enrichment before the talks start would guarantee that the talks don't start at all. And Bibi Netanyahu knows that.
A healthier US foreign policy wouldn't put up with conduct like this from a far-right, warmongering government in Israel.

Plus, this whole idea that negotiations should only take place after all major issues have been resolved is pretty insane. It's part of the poisonous legacy of the neoconservatives that such a position is taken seriously at all.

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Sunday, January 08, 2012

State of the Iran War agitation

LobeLog Foreign Policy has started a weekly Iran Hawk Watch, of which Jasmin Ramsey's 01/06/2012 installment is here. That blog is a good source of reality-based news on US-Iran conflicts.

Suzanne Maloney in Obama's Counterproductive New Iran Sanctions: How Washington Is Sliding Toward Regime Change Foreign Affairs Online 01/05/2012 describes both the risk:

The Obama administration has argued that "pressure works," pointing to past reversals by the Islamic Republic, including the grudging and belated acceptance of a cease-fire to end its eight-year war with Iraq. Yet this formula disregards two critical points: first, Tehran has been under tremendous pressure to change its security policy throughout its entire post-revolutionary history, yet that policy has proved remarkably durable. Second, Iran's major concessions have come not simply as a product of pressure but because of the declining utility of the original objective. In this instance, however, the tables are turned. The more Washington corners Tehran, the higher the value of a nuclear deterrent becomes in the eyes of the leadership.
And the hope:

Although this suggests more friction ahead, it does not mean that a military clash is absolutely on the horizon. Neither side wants war: not Washington, which has worked assiduously to meet the president's timetable for winding down the two other military engagements in the broader Middle East, and not Tehran, which prefers the more familiar (and lower-risk) options availed through proxies and terrorist activities. A prolonged low-intensity struggle -- with plenty of blustery rhetoric and diplomatic hardball -- is now the new normal.
But she qualifies this by pointing out that US policy seems more than ever direct toward regime change, which virtually insures that the US diplomacy toward Iran will be focused on threatening war.

Vali Nasr in Hard-line U.S. Policy Tips Iran Toward Belligerence Bloomberg 01/04/2012 argues that the Iranian leadership is moving toward a more active response to US and European pressure. The financial blockade the Congress authorized Obama to impose, though leaving him discretion on whether to implement it or not, is a particular concern:

In recent months, Iranian protesters have brazenly attacked the U.K. Embassy in Tehran. Iran has claimed to have downed a U.S. drone, put on 10-day war games simulating attacks on U.S. ships, and threatened to push oil prices to $250 a barrel and to close the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20 percent of all oil trade passes.

This defiance marks a change. Until recently, Iran had absorbed economic pressure from abroad. It had remained silent in the face of covert operations aimed at slowing the progress of its nuclear program, brushing off the destructive Stuxnet computer worm, apparently a joint U.S.-Israeli project. But the government has been embarrassed and unnerved by multiple assassinations of its scientists and by suspicious explosions at its military facilities. One blast killed the general charged with developing Iran’s missile program. The attacks have shaken the country’s security forces.

The ruling clerics are also worried about the impact of economic sanctions, which have greatly reduced Iran’s access to global financial markets, created shortages of imported items, and increased inflation and unemployment. The rial has fallen to its lowest point against the dollar, and capital is fleeing the country at an alarming rate. The government has been forced to scrap numerous infrastructure projects, especially in the oil- and-gas sector.

These hardships have caused popular discontent. The next set of sanctions may bring street protests. Iran’s rulers fear a repeat of the demonstrations of 2009. They now see the U.S. policy on Iran -- of toughening sanctions and also, at the United Nations, addressing Iran's human-rights record and support for terrorism -- as one aimed at regime change. [my emphasis]
A war with Iran would be a really, really bad idea.

We in the United States need to get back to the idea that war is a failure of foreign policy, not a goal to be sought, much less make war and the threat of war the predominant tool of foreign policy in the Middle East.

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Thursday, January 05, 2012

Gary Sick: If you like the Iraq and Afghanistan wars ...

Gary Sick, an expert on Iran and its foreign policies, takes a look at the current state of relations between the US and its allies, on the one hand, and Iran on the other in an important piece, Who’s Afraid of the Ayatollahs? Gary's Choices 01/04/2012. Toward the end, he includes this warning about a war of choice against Iran that American hawks are promoting and have been promoting for a while:

These are the same illusions of righteousness and impunity that preceded the U.S. invasion of Iraq. As General Zinni memorably noted, if you like Iraq and Afghanistan, you're going to love Iran. Those who suggest that a U.S. military confrontation with Iran would be surgical, limited, and one-sided are many of the same people who eight years ago assured you that the invasion of Iraq would be a cakewalk. ...

An impeccable array of U.S. and Israeli security officials have spoken openly of the absolute folly of going to war with Iran and have warned against exaggerating either the threat or Iran’s intentions. Those voices include the top military leaders and intelligence officials in both the United States and Israel.

After a decade of war and trillion dollar deficits, the United States should be well aware that such adventures can do us real harm. An important set of experienced voices continue to call for a return to negotiations. Iran says it is willing. We risk greatly and unnecessarily if we ignore the chance. [my emphasis]
He notes that even among Republicans like Willard (Mitt) Romney who paint the supposed Iranian threat in apocalyptic terms, it also simultaneously taken for granted that the US has an overwhelming superiority to Iran in the force it could apply to defend against an Iranian military move in its neighborhood perceived to be hostile to US interests. And he writes:

Without questioning the logic of this proposition, just how worried should we be about Iran? How much harm can Iran actually do to us?

This question is important since, despite all the scare talk, the United States and its allies are actually conducting their relations with Iran as if they were entirely immune to any retaliation. Such policies include the use of drones for both reconnaissance and attack; covert (or officially deniable) actions, such as the Stuxnet worm introduced into the Iranian nuclear infrastructure and/or assassinations of suspect individuals; displays of military force; and destructive unilateral sanctions.
He warns against the faith that the Obama Administration puts in such acts, because in fact they are "misleading and ultimately dangerous" - and not only in Iran. Obama has expanded covert warfare considerably, based on what we know in the public record.

I haven't followed the drones-in-Iran story closely, but this was news to me: "At least two other U.S. drones had previously been downed over Iran, though they were apparently shot down, not commandeered."

He also notes that Iran may have scored again on the covert front: "Little noticed was the Iranian announcement that it had rolled up a CIA espionage ring in Iran. If true, this is the third time since the revolution that a major U.S. spy ring was neutralized."

Sick also warns that asymmetric methods don't apply only to guerrilla warfare. Referring to the cyber-attacks on Iran's nuclear power program, he writes:

Iran has a very highly developed cyber warfare capability of its own, with a battalion of young, skilled IT engineers. Until now, they have focused primarily on putting down the incipient revolt that followed the contested elections of 2009. In that effort, they were much more efficient than the Egyptians, or Syrians or other Middle East nations who have tried to stop use of the internet for social and political mobilization. But what happens next?

The United States and all other developed industrial states rely on computer-driven systems for their most mundane and most sensitive services, everything from waste disposal sites to dams to nuclear plants. Cyber warfare specialists are openly worried about the vulnerability of these systems to a sophisticated cyber attack. And such attacks, if well planned, leave no discernible fingerprints.

As in the case of the stealth drone, are we as invulnerable as we thought? What if a power plant in your vicinity suddenly and mysteriously exploded or ran amok? You probably would not blame your national security officials, but you might be wrong. In cyber warfare, the playing field is much more level than in conventional warfare.
If such a thing happens, it won't be very helpful for our politicians and pundits to be cluelessly asking, "Why do they hate us?"

In the real world, those whiz-bang black ops programs often don't work nearly so well as they do on TV and in the movies. If the United States is firing rockets from drones, or conducting sabotage operations or other covert military missions, assassinating scientists or other civilians the US Administration of the moment decides needs killin', all those are acts of war. For all the annoyance they cause us, the airport inspections by the TSA can't protect Americans from every risk that stems from our reckless and ill-advised covert wars.

Economic sanctions aren't as always clean and easy as we might like to imagine them:

More recently, the U.S. Congress has been insisting on sanctions against Iranian banks that, in effect, make it impossible for Iran to sell its oil. That is the equivalent of a military blockade of Iran’s oil ports, arguably an act of war. And these sanctions are being imposed unilaterally, without reference to the United Nations Security Council. Members of Congress can go home to their districts and boast about how tough they can be on Iran, and in an election year that is worth a few votes. President Obama seems unwilling to buck the tide, despite his better judgment.

Iran has responded with harsh words, indicating that if Iran’s oil lifeline is cut off, others will also find their access to world oil markets imperiled. Iran does not need to close the Strait of Hormuz to make a point. Its words make it clear that an act of war by the United States will be treated as such by Iran. Even the threat of a confrontation immediately drove the price of oil above $100 per barrel, which has effects on economies struggling to recover from the recession. [my emphasis]
War with Iran. Really not a good idea.

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Tuesday, November 29, 2011

Joschka Fischer on war with Iran

I give a lot of weight to Former German Foreign Minister Joschka Fischer's views on foreign policy. He writes about Iran's nuclear program in Die iranische Zeitbombe (The Iranian Time Bomb) Financial Times Deutschland 29.11.2011. Fischer has been saying for years that he thought the Iranians were working on a project for a nuclear weapon, and he continues to think that.

In his view, the amount of expense and effort that Iran is putting into their atomic development program makes no sense unless they are trying to get nuclear weapons, or at least get to the point where they could proceed to build them quickly when and if the Iranian leadership gave the green light for it.

That's certainly believable to me, because Iran has from their standpoint
strong incentive to build nuclear weapons. The united states is far less likely to go to all-out war against an enemy with nuclear weapons - although Pakistan's recent experience may raise questions about how effective a nuclear deterrent is against the United States if they don't have delivery system that can strike North America. Israel also has nuclear weapons and repeatedly threatens them with war. The US intervention in Libya announced that even cooperating with US disarmament demands and getting patted on the head by the American President for their statesmanship in doing so doesn't guarantee the leaders making a deal that they won't have an American intervention.

But Fischer also points out that despite the diplomatic complications that it would create for the US, Israel and Turkey for Iran to acquire nuclear weapons, an air war against Iran is unlikely to completely destroy their nuclear program. And the other results?

Der arabische Frühling wäre wohl zu Ende und würde durch eine massiv antiwestliche Solidaritätswelle mit dem Iran abgelöst werden. Die Region würde in Gewalt und Terror zurückgestoßen, statt sich weiter von unten her zu transformieren.

Die Opposition im Iran selbst wäre wohl das erste Opfer einer solchen Aktion ...

[The Arab Spring would really be ended and would be replaced by a massive, anti-Western solidarity with Iran. The region would the shoved back into violence and terror instead of being further transformed from below.

The opposition in Iran itself would surely be the first victim of such an action ...]
Fischer generally has some optimistic possibility to offer; here it's not much more than a hope for a diplomatic solution. His column is more a warning:

Schaut man in die Geschichtsbücher, so war der Weg in die Katastrophe in der Regel mit guten Absichten und gravierenden Fehleinschätzungen gepflastert. Im vor uns liegenden Jahr droht eine Wiederholung dieses Stücks.

[If one looks in the history books, one sees that the road to catastrophe is normally paved with good intentions and grave misevaluations. In the year that lies before us, we are threatened with a repetition of this play.]
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Sunday, November 27, 2011

Iran War talk

Not satisfied with the disaster known as the Iraq War, the neocons and assorted other warmongers want to attack Iran and create an even bigger disaster for US foreign policy.

The latest flurry of Iran War propaganda came with the recent report of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) headquartered in Vienna. Seymour Hersh, who has been doing great reporting on this for years, addresses the latest IEAE report in Iran and the I.A.E.A. New Yorker 11/18/2011:

The new report ... leaves us where we've been since 2002, when George Bush declared Iran to be a member of the Axis of Evil—with lots of belligerent talk but no definitive evidence of a nuclear-weapons program.
He includes an important bit of information on the current management of the IAEA:

The shift in tone at the I.A.E.A. seems linked to a change at the top. The I.A.E.A.’s report had extra weight because the Agency has had a reputation for years as a reliable arbiter on Iran. Mohammed ElBaradei, who retired as the I.A.E.A.'s Director General two years ago, was viewed internationally, although not always in Washington, as an honest broker — a view that lead to the awarding of a Nobel Peace Prize in 2005. ElBaradei's replacement is Yukiya Amano of Japan. Late last year, a classified U.S. Embassy cable from Vienna, the site of the I.A.E.A. headquarters, described Amano as being "ready for prime time." According to the cable, which was obtained by WikiLeaks, in a meeting in September, 2009, with Glyn Davies, the American permanent representative to the I.A.E.A., said, "Amano reminded Ambassador on several occasions that he would need to make concessions to the G-77 [the group of developing countries], which correctly required him to be fair-minded and independent, but that he was solidly in the U.S. court on every strategic decision, from high-level personnel appointments to the handling of Iran’s alleged nuclear weapons program." The cable added that Amano's "willingness to speak candidly with U.S. interlocutors on his strategy ... bodes well for our future relationship."
Part of the mainstream US press dissing of Wikileaks was the claim that none of the information they are leaking is particularly important. Actually, there have been important leaks, including this one. It would be a shame if Wikileaks gets shut down, because they are doing investigative reporting that much of the Establishment press in the US is unwilling to do.

Our US national press really makes you wonder how much people can or do actually learn from history. Even recent history. As Glenn Greenwald puts it (The media and Iran: familiar mindlessness Salon 11/22/2011):

The lesson supposedly learned by the U.S. establishment media from the Iraq debacle was the danger of relying on anonymous government sources to disseminate unverified fear-mongering accusations. Rather obviously, no such lesson has been learned, as this continues to be the primary reporting method for accusing the Supreme Hitlers of the Moment — Iran — of anything and everything the U.S. Government can dream up.
Gareth Porter adds some information relative to the report in Former Weapons Inspector: Iran Does Not Have Nuclear Weapons Test Chamber Alternet 11/20/2011. Gareth also links to this interview with nuclear engineer Robert Kelley of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), who has been an IAEA inspector by The Real News Network, Former IAEA Inspector: Misleading Iran report proves nothing 11/14/2011:



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Thursday, October 20, 2011

Mr. Bean's assassination plot and escalating war propects with Iran

Reza Marashi asks of the Mr. Bean assassination plot, Does Obama understand what's been unleashed? Aljazeera English 10/19/2011:

Here’s the bottom line: Indiscriminate sanctions are meant to change Iran’s strategic calculus to such a degree that the costs of maintaining its current policy trajectory outweigh the benefits - thus pressuring Iran into "changing its behaviour". Listening to Presidents Carter through Obama articulate the success of this strategy during their respective administrations is compelling, except for one minor detail - it’s never actually worked. And it will not work. For nearly 33 years and six US presidential administrations, broad-based sanctions have not compelled the Iranian government to change course. But they have significantly added to tensions between Iran and the United States. By the US' own metric, its track record of success with Iran sanctions is second only to that of Castro’s Cuba.

Regardless of whether the assassination allegations against Iran are true, the Obama administration has escalated tensions to a point where we are now on the verge of repeating our same mistakes vis-à-vis Iraq in the late 1990s and early 2000s. Thinking back to last month, one has to wonder whether the recently retired Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Admiral Mike Mullen, knew something we don’t when he supported the notion of opening up channels of communication with Iran. Unprompted, Mullen said: "We haven’t had a connection with Iran since 1979. Even in the darkest days of the Cold War, we had links to the Soviet Union. We are not talking to Iran so we don’t understand each other. If something happens, it’s virtually assured that we won't get it right, that there will be miscalculations which would be extremely dangerous in that part of the world." [my emphasis]
The idea that having negotiations or establishing diplomatic relations with a country is some kind of reward for their behavior is highly dubious, based on its sorry record of effectiveness in achieving the alleged political goals. If a government is factually in control of a country's territory and can handle the basic requirements of international relations, e.g., protecting an embassy, we should establish normal diplomatic relations with them. In the unusual case of Iran in 1979, the Iranian regime took over the American Embassy and held US diplomats hostage until January 1981. During that time, it wouldn't have made sense to re-establish diplomatic relations. But now, 22 years later?

This idea that conducting diplomacy is a reward for good behavior is a favorite notions of neoconservatives, who in dealing with Islamic nations in the Middle East especially want to use only war and the threat of war as tools of foreign relations. As Daniel Luban recently wrote:

... the neocons drew deeper lessons from the Arab-Israeli conflict about the indispensability of American power and the uselessness of international institutions. While liberals thought the conflict called for better diplomacy, the neocons blamed diplomacy itself, and a liberalism that was too impotent and equivocating to stand up for Israel.
And they projected this attitude to US foreign relations more generally, including the John Birch Society's eternal bugaboo, the United Nations.

A war with Iran would be a really bad idea. Although it's a lot to hope for, it is the responsibility of Congress and the press to exercise some serious oversight on the claims the Obama Administration is making over the Mr. Bean "Iranian" plot.

Jasmin Ramsey at LobeLog Foreign Policy writes about the current state of warmongering for war with Iran in Paul Pillar takes down Richard Cohen on Iran 11/20/2011. The neocons pushed for war with Iraq from the end of the 1991 Gulf War until the beginning of the US-British invasion in 2003. They are now doing the same with Iran. If the Obama Administration seriously wants to avoid war with Iran, they have to do something to make it more difficult for President Perry to set up that war in 2013.

But right now, they are moving in the opposite direction.

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