Israel's military legend and the prospects for peace

Tzipi Livni, Israeli Foreign Minister and Kadima candidate for Prime Minister

Stephen Walt, one of the best known practitioners of the Realist school of foreign policy thought, in a long post at the Foreign Policy site looks at The myth of Israel's strategic genius Mon, 01/19/2009, which provides a capsule history of Israel's wars since 1948. In doing so, he describes the conditions of today, in which the possibility of a two-state peace settlement are badly diminished and perhaps dead altogether.

Walt argues that Israel showed "strategic myopia" in both the Lebanon War of 2006 and the Gaza offensive in 2008-9.

Israeli leaders initially said that their goal was to inflict enough damage on Hamas so it could no longer threaten Israel with rocket attacks. But they now concede that Hamas will neither be destroyed nor disarmed by their attacks, and instead say that more extensive monitoring will prevent rocket parts and other weapons from being smuggled into Gaza. This is a vain hope, however. As I write this, Hamas has not accepted a ceasefire and is still firing rockets; even if it does accept a ceasefire soon, rocket and mortar fire are bound to resume at some point in the future. On top of that, Israel's international image has taken a drubbing, Hamas is probably more popular, and moderate leaders like Mahmoud Abbas have been badly discredited. A two-state solution - which is essential if Israel wishes to remain Jewish and democratic and to avoid becoming an apartheid state - is farther away than ever. The IDF performed better in Gaza than it did in Lebanon, largely because Hamas is a less formidable foe than Hezbollah. But this does not matter: the war against Hamas is still a strategic failure. And to have inflicted such carnage on the Palestinians for no lasting strategic gain is especially reprehensible. [my emphasis]

He also points to the expansion of West Bank settlement after the Oslo agreements, an expansion which may have doomed the prospects for a two-state solution even before the Gaza offensive.

... the number of settlers in the West Bank doubled during the Oslo period (1993-2001), and the Israelis built some 250 miles of connector roads in the West Bank. Palestinian leaders and U.S. officials made their own contributions to Oslo's failure, but Israel had clearly squandered what was probably the best opportunity it will ever have to negotiate a peace agreement with the Palestinians.

Many Americans have assumed that Israel is an exceptional nation in the way we assume an "American exceptionalism". Part of the virtue of the Realist point of view is that its advocates often remind us Americans the we are "like the nations" in talking our own share of foolish and destructive actions. It's important for Americans to look at Israel as it is, too, also "like the nations" in that way. Walt writes, "Israel is no different than most powerful states in this regard: sometimes it does things that are admirable and wise, and at other times it pursues policies that are foolish and cruel."

And he describes how American illusions about ourselves and our de facto Israeli ally have probably encouraged strategic mistakes on Israel's part as well as ours:

The moral of this story is that there is no reason to think that Israel always has well-conceived strategies for dealing with the problems that it faces. In fact, Israel's strategic judgment seems to have declined steadily since the 1970s - beginning with the 1982 invasion of Lebanon - perhaps because unconditional U.S. support has helped insulate Israel from some of the costs of its actions and made it easier for Israel to indulge strategic illusions and ideological pipe-dreams. Given this reality, there is no reason for Israel's friends - both Jewish and gentile - to remain silent when it decides to pursue a foolish policy. And given that our "special relationship" with Israel means that the United States is invariably associated with Jerusalem's actions, Americans should not hesitate to raise their voices to criticize Israel when it is acting in ways that are not in the U.S. national interest. [my emphasis]

Tags: israel