Germany's non-crisis crisis

Germany's Chancellor Angela Merkel hasn't yet negotiated a new government coalition after last month's election. She has been working on a coalition government with her conservative CDU, the even more conservative CSU, the liberal (in the European sense) FDP, and the center-left Greens, a so-called "Jamaica coalition." The name comes from the party colors of those parties being included on the Jamaican flag.

The FDP withdrew from the coalition talks this week. Assuming those don't resume, the two alternative coalition combinations would be another Grand Coalition (GroKo) with the CDU and CSU with the Social Democrats (SPD). The other would be a minority government in which the CDU/CSU form a government that is "tolerated" by one or more parliamentary parties, meaning a parliamentary majority would vote to form a government that includes only CDU/CSU members.

Failing either of those alternatives, a new election would be likely.

This situation has sent some commentators' imaginations soaring that Germany is now in the middle of a serious political crisis.

The usually safely mainstream Deutsche Welle fed the hype a bit with a tweet that on its face seems to be poking fun at the panic:

Germany has not had a government for 60 days now. Is this the beginning of anarchy? pic.twitter.com/rMJWKgE57B

— dwnews (@dwnews) November 21, 2017

Joerg Wolf of Atlantic-Community.org tweeted in response:

Anarchy? Stupid tweet, not even funny. Paid by fees imposed on Germans.
Of course 🇩🇪 still has a government. https://t.co/IeTIydzWiJ

— Joerg Wolf (@transatlantic) November 22, 2017

Jacob Heilbrunn gives some background on the coalition talks in Is Germany's Angela Merkel Really in Danger? National Interest 11/22/2017:

The idea of a Jamaica coalition has long been the dream of centrist Germans who were enraptured by the idea that the Greens, once vilified by conservatives as bunch of sandal-wearing, peacenik, environmental fruitcakes, could work together with the Christian Democrats. It’s already occurred at the state level, and the Greens have in fact moved a long way from their early days when “realos”—or realists—would duke it out with the “fundis”—fundamentalists. Since then the Greens have, by and large, gone mainstream. The last time the Greens were in government was under Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder when Joschka Fischer served as foreign minister.

As for the Free Democrats, it should come as no real surprise that they are reluctant to enter government. In terms of the party’s political future, it was probably the right move to pull out of the coalition talks with Merkel. The FDP’s last coalition with Merkel did not end well. Voters saw the party as a mere appendage of the Christian Democrats and the party failed to pass the 5 percent hurdle to enter the Bundestag, or federal parliament, in 2013. It was a painful climb to resuscitate the party’s political fortunes. [FDP party leader Christian] Lindner, a clever and ambitious politician, has reinvented the FDP, including taking a harder line on immigration. He can continue to push the party to the right in opposition and raise its profile ala Sebastian Kurz who heads the Austrian People’s Party. ““I have the feeling that Lindner has been looking a little too much towards Austria recently,” Green party head Cem Ozedemir said.

The SPD leaders were nuts from a party-political point of view in 2013 when they didn't even try to form a red-red-green coalition with the Greens and the Left Party. They would have had a majority in the national Bundestag. They don't in 2017. Heilbrunn points out that another four years of a GroKo would likely weaken one or both of the coalition parties by making them seem more and more alike.

Germany and the EU face two chronic, big, serious crises: the euro crisis, because the euro does not constitution an "optimal currency zone," as the economist call it; and the refugee crisis, which is being driven by wars in the Middle East and Africa as well as climate change.

But Germany in November 2017 is not in any kind of political crisis. As Joerg's tweet indicates, Angela Merkel is still Chancellor and there is still a Cabinet and parliament is functioning.

Rudolf Walther has the right idea in Mehr Mut zur Minderheitsregierung Blätter 11/2017. He points out that parliamentary systems in Denmark, Sweden and Canada have had minority governments for various periods of time. And it wasn't like President Hindenburg dismissing Parliament over and over and enabling Chancellors like Heinrich Bruning to rule in a quasi-authoritarian way, which did in the Weimar Republic.

In a minority government, the Chancellor would build a majority not with party-line majorities with the governing parties who form with government. Instead, she would need to put together different majorities in the legislature on the legislation she needs to pass. Which is similar to what happens in the executive systems in the US and Latin America. It's a different kind of challenge than a majority coalition government. But it doesn't mean that the political system is some kind of fundamental crisis. Or any crisis at all.

So when the Washington Post editorial board is saying today that Germany has been plunged "into an unprecedented postwar political crisis," well, that's just goofy. (Germany’s political crisis is the last thing the West needs right now Washington Post 11/22/2017)