Is Angela Merkel's Chancellorship About to End?

The German-language press has been full of stories recently about the impending end of Angela Merkel's Chancellorship. I doubt that it is quite so eminent as the headlines suggest.

• Angela Merkel: Der Anfang vom Ende? ("Angela Merkel: The Beginning of the End?") Süddeutsche Zeitung 26.09.2018
• Die große Konfusion ("The Great Confusion") Die Zeit 26.09.2018
• "Innere Unsicherheit" ("Inner Insecurity") Der Spiegel 22.09.2018
• "Merkels Autorität ist beschädigt" (Merkel's Authority Is Damaged") Süddeutsche Zeitung 26.09.2018
• "Der Machverlust" ("The Loss of Power") Die Zeit 26.09.2018. front page Österreich-Ausgabe 27.09.2018
• Merkel-Vertrauter gestürzt: Anfang vom Ende ("Merkel Intimate Unseated: Beginning of the End") Standard (Wien) 25.09.2018
• "Im Abendlicht" ("In the Light of Sunset") Der Spiegel 29.09.2018
• "Knapp nach halb Nacht" ("Almost At Half Power") Profil 01.10.2018
• Wohin geht die Macht, wenn sie geht? ("Where Does Power Go, When It Goes Away?")Die Zeit 26.09.2018
• CDU/CSU-Abgeordnete wagen mit Kauder-Abwahl Aufstand gegen Merkel ("CDU/CSU Representatives Venture An Uprising Against Merkel With Kauder-Ouster Vote") Standard (Wien) 25.09.2018

The recent flap started with Hans-Georg Maaßen, the head of the Verfassungsschutz, the internal security agenca charged with monitoring and countering groups that aim to undermine the democratic order, which typically means political groups with a possible violent tendency. After recent anti-immigrant violence in the city of Chemnitz, Maaßen made public comments that seemed to minimize anti-immigrant violence and even to sympathize with the extremists.

The opposition called for his ouster over those comments and for "allegedly providing members of the right-wing Alternative for Germany (AfD) with confidential material." (Judith Mischke, Merkel admits mistakes in case of domestic intelligence chief Politico EU 09/24/2018) The agreement the coalition reached was to take him out of that office and give him a promotion. The SPD rank-and-file and the opposition were outraged. So they moved him to a vaguely defined advisory position in the Interior Ministry.

Then came what Merkel expected to be a routine vote to re-elect Volker Kauder as the head of the CDU parlimentary club. Merkel supported Kauder, but the former deputy leader Ralph Brinkhaus was elected instead with 125 votes to 112 for Kauder. As Matthew Karnitschnig reports (Merkel loses key ally in conservative rebellion Politico EU 09/26/2018),

Before the vote, Merkel made a personal plea to the group at a meeting in the historic Reichstag building, telling members that she considers Kauder to be crucial to the stability of her coalition government. By selecting Brinkhaus against Merkel’s wishes immediately following her remarks, conservative MPs left no doubt that they are dissatisfied with the chancellor’s stewardship.

Merkel has been Chancellor at the head of a GroKo (Grand Coalition) of the CDU, CSU, and SPD since 2005, the exception being in 2009-11 when she headed a CDU/CSU/FDP coalition.

It's unlikely that either Merkel's CDU or the SDP would want to have a new national election after just having one last year.

Both the CDU and the SPD are facing political challenges. Merkel has to worry about pressure from the right from the CSU and the AfD (Alternative für Deutschland), especially on immigration. The SPD has been losing support dramatically over the last 15 years. After the 2013 election, they had a chance to build a majority "red-red-green" coalition of the SPD, the Left Party, and the Greens. They didn't even try, they were so eager to be Angela Merkel's junior partner for four more years. After the 2017 election, the three parties together no longer have a parliamentary majority. If the SPD over the next few years shrinks to a minor party - a real possibility - 2013 will stand out as a key moment on that journey to irrelevance.