Georgia and NATO

I don't really mind seeing McCain and his White Princess get embarassed about her somewhat artless responses to Charlie Gibson's softball questions on Georgia. Press misunderstanding and affection for "gotcha" lines work so often again Democrats that it's hard not to enjoy seeing such things sting the Republicans every now and then.

But she was really just stating the policy shared by McCain, Obama and Biden, which is that the US wants Georgia added to NATO. As I said yesterday, a real journalist would have pressed her on the practical questions involved.

Monica Friedlander at the UC-Berkeley Web site reports on a Sept. 4 panel about the Georgia crisis in Berkeley Professors Weigh in on the Crisis in the Caucasus by (n.d., accessed 09/12/08) featuring Edward Walker, Yuri Slezkine, Steven Fish and Johanna Nichols.

They weren't in doubt about the practical upshot of recent events: "Meanwhile, the panelists said, Georgia’s prospects for NATO membership have collapsed and the fate of the people of South Caucasus remains dire for the foreseeable future."

That sums it up well. Diplomatically, the US will have to maintain a negotiating position insisting on Western freedom of action in leaving the prospect of Georgian NATO membership open and opposing the independence of the breakaway provinces South Ossetia and Abkhasia.

But Russia has killed any practical prospect of Georgian membership in NATO. And very likely the chances for such membership by Ukraine.

As Joschka Fischer and others have observed, Russia's power has been growing over the last couple of decades despite chronic economic problems. And in the Caucuses, they have a conventional military superiority that they showed in August they are willing to use in defense of their perceived national interests.

Friedlander reports:

“Russia drew a line in sand,” said Edward Walker, associate adjunct professor of political science and director of the Berkeley Program in Eurasian and East European Studies. “They said, ‘Do not recognize Kosovo and do not incorporate Georgia into NATO. We see this as a threat to our national security. If you do, bad things will happen.’ We ignored those warnings.”

What’s more, the panelists said, the war in the Caucasus strengthened Russia’s position in the region and embarrassed Washington, which has precious few cards to play in this conflict.

“The U.S. built an ally and abandoned it, or else tried to support it and failed. Regardless, it looks weak,” said Yuri Slezkine, a professor of history and director of the Institute of Slavic, East European, and Eurasian Studies.

The US and NATO were essentially bluffing over Georgia and Ukraine, in other words. And the Russians successfully called the bluff.

Tags: georgia, russia, russland