Germany "has never before seen such an election campaign"

"The country has never before seen such an election campaign."

So writes Albrecht von Lucke of the current national campaign in Germany for the Parliamentary election on September 22 in Angela Merkel, sicher ist sicher Blätter für deutsche und internationale Politik 9/2013. ("Einen derartigen Wahlkampf hat das Land noch nicht gesehen.")

He's complaining that the opposition - primarily the SPD, also the Greens and the Left Party - has been able to put any distinctive stamp on the campaign.

Von Lucke discusses the current conventional wisdom about a Second Biedermeier, a period of apathy and depoliticization among the German voters. I've discussed this concept in Angela "Frau Fritz" Merkel and the neoliberal depoliticization of politics: "asymmetrical demobilization" in the German case 06/05/2013 and German siesta? Or neoliberal demobilization? 08/05/2013. And as I said in Merkel, unified Germany and the future of Europe 08/02/2013, the Second Biedermeier is starting to look more like the Second Sarajevo, in terms of decision-making failure, though with less violent consequences."

Jürgen Habermas wrote earlier this year that an "unspeakably Merkel-loyal media landscape" in Germany was facilitating a "clever-evil game" on her part, progressively undermining German democracy on behalf of the neoliberal ideology that now dominates the EU political elites. Including the SPD in Germany.

Von Lucke argues, "Tatsächlich erleben die Bürger seit zehn Jahren nicht Stillstand, sondern die permanente Veränderung und das definitive Ende der alten, Bonner Republik." ("Actually the citizens {of Germany} have been experiencing for the last ten years not stagnation, but permanent change and the definitive end of the old Bonn Republic.") Georg Dietz connects this change in no small part with the heritage of depoliticization in the DDR (Communist East Germany), "The heritage of the DDR has changed Germany more than we want to admit, not always for the better - and Angela Merkel is the Chancellor of this change."

Von Lucke thinks that the SPD should be making a clear election theme of the decline in social security in German society over the last decade, not just the "safety net" but the quality of jobs. The problem is that Peer Steinbrück has so committed himself to the neoliberal vision is that he's really not in a position to make that case. Von Lucke notes, not with a hint of bitterness, that even though public opinion in Germany has moved more toward SPD-type positions on issues like nuclear power and same-sec marriage, they have not been able to take advantage of it.

Despite Merkel's brutal Herbert Hoover/Heinrich Brüning economic policies toward southern Europe, she's actually been flexible on nuclear power in particular, adopting a hardline position to phase out all nuclear power for electricity in Germany in the relatively near-term. And because Germany is actually benefiting from the euro at the expense of the southern European countries, the German public hasn't experienced anything like the full cruelty of her Hoover/Brüning policies. During the election campaign, she has been announcing new government programs to sweeten her electoral chances. Up until now, the Hoover/Brüning policies have fallen on those nation's Angela the Great regards as inferior ones.

Steinbrück and the SPD have also been loyally supportive of Merkel's euro crisis policies, so they haven't even begun to lay the groundwork for a meaningful criticism of the high risks of Merkel's euro policies to Germany.

Steinbrück has also stubbornly refused to entertain any possibility of forming a red-red-green coalition government after the election, a coalition of the SPD, the Greens and the Left Party. But without that, he has little possibility of forming an SPD-headed government after September 22. And that means any voter selecting the SPD has to be concerned that they are "throwing away their vote," as we say in the US. Because they can have little hope that the SPD will have a reasonable chance to implement whatever program they are offering. Which in itself isn't a lot to get excited about in the current context.

As Von Lucke also notes, "da Steinbrück bereits vollmundig angekündigt hat, nicht erneut unter Angela Merkel dienen zu wollen, entpuppt sich der Spitzenkandidat vollends als lame duck und „Nulloption“" ("because Steinbrück has already given a full-throated declaration he has revealed himself as a lame duck and 'zero option'").

I was surprised to see in this column by Wolfgang Münchau, who writes for the Financial Times and co-founded the (now defunct) Financial Times Deutschland and served as its co-chief editor that he says bluntly here the Left Party, the "postcommunist" party partly descended from the old East German ruling party, has straightforwardly the best analysis of the euro crisis of the five German parliamentary parties. The lineup of German parties from right to left is FDP, CDU (Merkel's party), Greens, SPD, Left Party. And he winds up emphasizing that a red-red-green coalition after this election may be the last chance to save the euro in anything like its current form. From Rot-Rot-Grün ist die beste Lösung für Europa Spiegel Online 28.08.2013:

Die Linken hingegen verstehen die Krise ökonomisch als eine Krise von Ungleichgewichten. "Die Politik der Regierung Merkel hat die Finanzmarktkrise zur Staatsschuldenkrise umgedeutet. Das verkehrt Ursache und Wirkung." Genauso ist es. Es ist eine Krise exzessiver Kapitalströme vom Norden in den Süden, deren abruptes Ende einen ökonomischen Schock auslöste, der in steigenden Haushaltsdefiziten endete. Da haben die Linken wie auch die Grünen völlig Recht. Wer das nicht versteht, wird diese Krise nie lösen.

Was mir an der Position der Linken besonders gefällt, ist die konsequente Umsetzung ihrer Analyse zur Krise auf ihr Abstimmungsverhalten im Bundestag. Im Gegensatz zu SPD und Grünen haben die Linken konsequent im Bundestag gegen die Krisenpolitik der Bundesregierung gestimmt. Bei den Grünen liest sich die Unterstützung der Regierung wie eine Entschuldigung. Man habe nur widerwillig zugestimmt, um eine noch größere Krise zu vermeiden. Ich halte das Argument für widersinnig.

The Leftists on the other hand understand the crisis economically as a crisis of imbalances. "The policy of the Merkel government has redefined the crisis of the financial markets as a crises of public debt. That reverses cause and effect." That exactly how it is. Is is a crisis of excessive capital flows from the North to the South {of the eurozone} whose abrupt end set off an economic shock that ende3d in rising budget deficits. On that the Leftists and also the Greens are completely right. Whoever doesn't understand that will never solve this crisis.

What I especially like about the position of the Leftists is the consistent implementation of their analysis of the crisis in their voting behavior in the Bundestag. in contrast to the SPD and the Greens, the Leftists have consistently voted against the crisis policy of the Federal Government {Merkel's Administration}. With the Greens, their support of the government can be read as shamefaced {more literally, reads like an apology}. As though they agreed to it against their will in order to avoid an even bigger crisis. I regard that argument as ludicrous.

Münchau isn't convinced on other aspects of the Left Party's program. But he's focused on how close the EU is to cracking apart under Merkel's Hoover/Brüning policies. His conclusion:

[Aus makroökonomischer Sicht wäre eine rot-rot-grüne Koalition die beste Lösung und die einzige Variante, die eine Chance hätte, die Krise mit Erfolg zu bekämpfen. Schon allein deshalb, weil eine solche Konstellation eine andere Narrative der Wirtschaftspolitik bietet.

From the macroeconomic point of view a red-red-green coalition would be the best solution and the only variant that would have a chance to deal with the crisis successfully. If only because such a constellation would offer another narrative for economic policy.] {my emphasis}

Von Lucke also includes an important reminder: "Konservative Parteien sind in Deutschland immer nur so sozial, wie starke linke Parteien sie dazu zwingen." ("Conservative parites in Germany are always only so social as strong left parties compel them to be.") In this campaign, the SPD has pretty much copletely dropped the ball in that regard. This may really be the most incompetent political campaign in the long history of the SPD.

Tags: angela merkel, austerity economics, eu, euro, european union, peer steinbrück, spd

Greek reality denial in the German election

Peer Steinbrück, probably the most pathetic candidate the German Social Democratic Party (SPD) has ever run, finally brought up Greece.

Klaus Stuttmann cartoon 08/19/2013. Merkel's toothy spokesperson Ronald Pofalla is saying "I hereby declare the NSA affair to be at an end!" Angela Merkel is thinking, "Super! I'm going to do the same with the euro crisis."

And in doing so, he illustrated why Wolfgang Münchau says that the SPD should be able to make Christian Democratic Chancellor Angela Merkel's mishandling of the euro crisis the key issue of the election coming in September - but that it's simply not possible with Steinbrück as the Chancellor candidate.

Michael Steen reports for the Financial Times in Schäuble breaks German campaign taboo on Greece 08/20/2013 on this, making Steinbrück seem even more hapless as a candidate than he really is:

"Does Greece need another aid programme? Will [Ms Merkel] stand by while banks directly receive money from European taxpayers?" Mr Steinbrück told the SPD party newspaper Vorwärts on Monday. "Ms Merkel has been pulling the wool over our eyes for three years, claiming that we don’t have a transfer union when in fact we do."

Translated from weasel-speak, this would mean that Steinbrück is saying that Merkel is being too generous to Greece.

But this article from Vorwärts doesn't contain that quote: Yvonne Holl, Steinbrück: „Wirtschaft mit Leidenschaft und Augenmaß“ 20.08.2013. And what it reports him saying about Merkel's handling of the EU crisis is actually reasonable and critical as far as it goes. He talks about Merkel is pushing the heads of the troubled eurozone nations under water. And he rightly mocked her plan from last year to combat youth unemployment in southern Europe, saying that essentially nothing had come of it. He even called for a new Marshall Plan for Europe, which doesn't seem compatible with the Financial Times quote. But without seeing the original article in context, it's hard to know what to make of the discrepancy. Focus gives this version, which is basically the same as the FT version but also without context (Steinbrück: Merkel muss Wahrheit zu Griechenland sagen 19.08.2013):

Merkel müsse heute erklären, was nach der Wahl komme, sagte Steinbrück der SPD-Zeitung „vorwärts“. „Braucht Griechenland ein neues Hilfsprogramm? Wird sie zulassen, dass Banken direkt Geld europäischer Steuerzahler erhalten?“, fragte Steinbrück an die Adresse Merkels. Die Zeichen dafür verdichteten sich. Steinbrück warf Merkel eine systematische Täuschung der Wähler vor. „Frau Merkel streut uns seit drei Jahren Sand in die Augen, wir hätten keine Haftungsunion. Dabei haben wir sie längst.“

Still, the statement quoted by FT version is consistent with his response to the Cyprus crisis early this year, when he criticized Merkel by demanding more pressure on Cyprus. (Eric Bonse, Steinbrück macht Zypern Druck Taz 19.02.2013)

And Steinbrück already made it explicit that he's opposed to another debt haircut for Greece. (Steinbrücks Interview-Offensive: "Da werde ich als Kanzler die Kavallerie satteln" Spiegel Online 17.08.2013) And that means all his talk about sympathy for nations being shoved underwater and having high youth unemployment is just hot air.

The ugly truth is that Germany is currently benefiting from the euro crisis in various ways. And not just in lower interest rates, though that's far from trivial in itself. (Profiteering: Crisis Has Saved Germany 40 Billion Euros Spiegel International 08/19/2013) But that's chump change compared to the advantage their export-oriented economy gets from the euro, which is a cheaper currency than a German national currency would be.

Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble tried to softpedal the issue of Merkel's government being deceptive over the problem.

Mr Schäuble portrayed his own comments as being in line with previous statements: "The public, parliament have always been told". There could be no further debt forgiveness for Athens, he maintained.

That still ignores a warning by the International Monetary Fund which said at the end of July the financing gap, which it puts at €11bn to cover the period into 2015, would need to involve some debt relief.

In tackling an issue that causes deep anxiety among German voters fearful that they will bear the brunt of any bailouts or debt write-offs, Mr Schäuble appeared to be seeking to protect Ms Merkel from Mr Steinbrück’s accusation that the government was hiding the truth on Greece and the eurozone crisis.

But with both the two largest parties in Germany coming down hard against debt relief for Greece, it's hard to avoid the impression that the German political elite is living in a wishful fog. Schäuble himself seems to be insisting on a slightly more realistic perspective, emphasis on slightly.

This headline from the Handelsblatt sums up why Steinbrück can't hope for much traction on the issue: "Unity on the Topic of Greece: Merkel and Steinbrück Against Debt Relief" (Merkel und Steinbrück gegen den Schuldenschnitt 17.08.2013). On the critical issue of the euro crisis, the differences between the two candidates are scarcely perceptible.

Tags: angela merkel, austerity economics, eu, euro, european union, greece, peer steinbrück, spd

Günter Grass stirs up the German election campaign a bit

The 85-year-old writer and public intellectual Günter Grass has inserted himself into the German election campaigned. And inserted his foot into his mouth.

Grass blasted former SPD Finance Minister Oskar Lafontaine, who infuriated the SPD leaders by switching to the Left Party in 1999, where he became a prominent spokesperson for the Party and helped it shed some of its "eastern" image. (Daniel Brössler, Literatur-Nobelpreisträger Grass rechnet mit Lafontaine ab Süddeutsche Zeitung 13.08.2013)

Albrecht Müller notes, as have other including Lafontaine himself, that the former Finance Minister no longer plays a prominent role in national politics for the Left Party. (Günter Grass lässt sich leider wieder einmal in eine Kampagne einspannen – wie schon des Öfteren seit 40 Jahren. Und diesmal besonders komisch: zugunsten des Machterhalts von Merkel. NachDenkSeiten 13.08.2013)

Grass' expressed complaint against Lafontaine is that he is the one preventing electoral cooperation and the prospect of the SPD joining the Left Party in a national coalition because, says Grass, Lafontaine has always been against it. Both Lafontaine and Müller object that in fact it's the SPD that has consistently refused such a possibility while Lafontaine has advocated it.

Günter Grass was a prominent figure of the intellectual left in Germany for decades. He was particularly outspoken about the need for Germans to recognize, analyze and understand the Nazi era and the crimes committed then. He wasn't entirely consistent himself about this, however. In 2006, he publicly explained for the first time that at age 17, he had been a member of the notorious Waffen-SS. A fact of which Lafontaine reminded him and the public in his reply this week to Grass' criticism.

This BBC News article, Guenter Grass served in Waffen SS 08/11/2006, reports on that revelation. As I explained in my post D-Day, 1985 05/29/2004:

The SS (Schutzstaffel, or "protective detachment"), also known as the Blackshirts, were an elite Nazi group headed by Heinrich Himmler. The SS operated the concentration camps, and its members were infamous for their sadism, fanaticism and murderous brutality.

The SS grew into a large, complex organization. The Waffen-SS was attached to regular military units and, unlike most of the SS, included conscripts as well as volunteers. Nevertheless, the Waffen-SS earned its own notoreity. It was the First SS Panzer Division who, on December 17, 1944, in the Battle of the Bulge, had murdered 71 unarmed American prisoners of war in the Belgian town of Malmedy. Malmedy was the worst massacre of U.S. POWs during World War II.

From what Grass said, as quoted by the BBC, he was a conscript: "It happened as it did to many of my age. We were in the labour service and all at once, a year later, the call-up notice lay on the table. And only when I got to Dresden did I learn it was the Waffen SS."

Still, it was a real embarrassment for him and detracted from his image as a public intellectual.

Albrecht Müller points out that in his interview with the Süddeutsche Zeitung, Grass praises the "Agenda 2010" neoliberal reforms, which are good example of neoliberal "reforms," this having lowered wages and heightened social insecurity in Germany. And he accuses Grass of echoing the criticism that financial lobbies directed at Lafontaine, which were a major factor in his resignation in 1999. Lafontaine resisted the neoliberal drift and demanded better regulation of the finance sector.

Müller is right that the only was the SPD has a likely chance of forming the next government is with the support of the Left Party. So he argues that Grass' misleading trashing of the Left Party only increase the likelihood of Merkel continuing as Chancellor.

It certainly appears that SPD Chancellor candidate Peer Steinbrück is really aiming to become the junior partner to Merkel in a new CDU/SPD Grand Coalition.

Tags: angela merkel, austerity economics, eu, euro, european union, günter grass, peer steinbrück, spd

German election putters along, euro crisis continues

The German Parliamentary elections are six weeks away. The most lackluster campaign the Social Democrats (SPD) have probably ever run is coming to an end, one way or the other. The chance of SPD Chancellor candidate Peer Steinbrück making things considerably more lively and drastically changing the current prospects are, well, not totally impossible. It's just that the chances look vanishingly small at this point.

Current polling is showing the current coalition of Angela Merkel's Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU) and the Free Democrats (FDP) and the combined opposition parties - the SPD, the Greens and the Left Party - each are polling around 46%. (Koalitionen: Steinbrück hält Rot-Rot-Grün für möglich - irgendwann Spiegel Online 11.08.2013) The remaining 8% would be made up of undecideds and those supporting smaller parties, none of whom are likely to reach the 5% hurdle to be represented in the Budestag. The new anti-euro part Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) may draw significant numbers of votes from the CDU/CSU. Their results will be particularly interesting to see because of their anti-euro position and because they've become a vehicle for hard right sentiments.

But the opposition's 46% only counts if the possibility of a red-red-green coalition of the three parties is a live one. Gregor Gysi, the Left Party's Budestag coalition leader is pressing the SPD to recognize such a possibility, as Cordula Eubel und Matthias Meisner report in Gregor Gysi fordert "Riesenruck" von der SPD, um Rot-Rot-Grün möglich zu machen Tagespiegel Online 10.08.2013. But Steinbrück and SPD Party Chair Sigmar Gabriel are both flatly ruling it out for the fall.

The truth appears to be that both Merkel and Steinbrück would prefer to join together in another Grand Coalition of the CDU and the SPD. If the SPD showed any real sign that they would insist on a qualitatively different euro crisis policy to the current one, that might offer some hope for the eurozone and the EU. But especially with Steinbrück in the lead position, they can only be expected to continue Merkel's brutal austerity policies for southern Europe with continuing attempts to use minor fixes to muddle through each new acute turn in the crisis. It can only go on for so long.

The German Budnesbank is now warning that after the German elections, a new rescue plan for Greece will be necessary. (Markus Sievers, Die Eurokrise kommt wieder Frankfurter Rundschau 11.08.2013) The IMF has already been warning of the same. It's not a secret. It's just something that neither Merkel nor Steinbrück cares to talk about much during the campaign.

Tags: angela merkel, austerity economics, eu, euro, european union, greece, peer steinbrück, spd

Merkel's empty election program

Wolfgang Münchau is using his weekly column to look at the election campaign proposals of German political parties leading up to next month's election.

He's previously argued that the Social Democrats (SPD) should have been able to make an issue out of German Chancellor Angela Merkel's disastrously bad handling of the euro crisis. But because of the SPD Chancellor candidate Peer Steinbrück's identification with those policies and with neoliberal economics in general, the SPD just can't make a credible case against Merkel on the euro crisis.

Münchau thinks that the SPD could use the controversy over NSA spying in Germany and Europe to call Merkel's leadership into question. She's showing the same poor judgment and "muddling through" approach that turned a Greek debt crisis in 2009 that could have been handled fairly easily into a full-blown existential crisis for the eurozone and the EU.

But Steinbrück is probably too feckless to even pull that off. In any case, it's pretty clear that his goal is to once again become a junior partner in a Grand Coalition with Merkel and her Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU). As Albrecht Müller points out in Rot-Rot-Grün als einzige Alternative an interview with Jörg Degenhardt on Deutschlandradio 07.08.2013, Steinbrück officially hopes for a red-green coalition with the Green Party. But given what current polls are showing and the weakness of the SPD's campaign, they aren't likely to have enough Bundestag seats after the election to make a red-green majority. The only way the SPD could reasonably expect to lead the next government would be in a "red-red-green" coalition of the SPD, the Left Party and the Greens. But Steinbrück is categorically ruling out the possibility of a coalition including the Left Party.

In Merkel ohne Wirtschaftsplan Spiegel Online 07.08.2013, Münchau looks at the CDU's platform. He isn't impressed. He notes that the CDU program offers only two themes, both of them favorites of Angie: "Wettbewerbsfähigkeit und geringere Staatsverschuldung" ("competitiveness and lower public debt"). For Merkel and the neoliberal conventional wisdom, "competitivess" means lower wages, reduced public services, fewer protections for workers, weaker unions and lower social insurance. Neither her neoliberal version of "competitiveness" or lower public debt in Germany will save the eurozone.

Münchau argues that the notion of national competitiveness is not a meaningful macroeconomic concept. "Sie kennt verschiedene Kategorien von Produktivität, der pro Zeiteinheit geleisteten Arbeit. Aber das Konzept der Wettbewerbsfähigkeit von Staaten kennt sie nicht." ("It [macro] knows different categories of productivity, the work that can be done per unit of time. But the concept of competitiveness for states it doesn't know.") Since Germany currently has a healthy trade balance, it would have to be considered "competitive" at the moment if the concept of national competitiveness has any real meaning.

In fact, as he notes, the present state of German economic prosperity is dependent on exports that are facilitated in a major way by the euro, whose exchange value is considerably lower than that of a separate German currency would be. If/when the euro as a currency disintegrates, Germany's "competitiveness" will quickly enter a different state.

Tags: angela merkel, austerity economics, eu, euro, european union, peer steinbrück, spd

German siesta? Or neoliberal demobilization?

"End the Siesta" is the title of an opinion piece by Alfons Frese of the Free University in Berlin in the August 2013 edition of metallzeitung, a publication of IG Metall, Germany's largest manufacturing union (pp. 14-15). The photo above that accompanies it is supposed to illustrate an idea that we see repeatedly from German commentators that German voters are mostly happy and content at the moment. With elections coming next month and German Chancellor Angela Merkel in a comfortable lead in the polls, that narrative is not unwelcome to the Chancellor. The idea of Merkel as "Mutti", the kindly Mama of the nation, is closely related to this concept.

This Second Biedermeier theme is at best a half-truth. And a fragile one at that. Dirk Kurbjuweit uses the concept in "Das zweite Biedermeier," an article in the print edition of Der Spiegel 20/2013. Biedermeier isn't just a style of furniture, it's also a period in German and Austrian history, from 1815 to 1848 or 1860, depending on the source you pick. Kurbjuweit likes the 1848 date, the year of the democratic revolutions in the German lands and across Europe. The "Biedermeier" period is thought of as a time where a self-satisfied conservatism dominated among the rising middle class, i.e., the "bourgeois" or capitalist class. The Biedermeier label comes from Gottlieb Biedermaier, a comic character in the Fliegende Blätter magazine who displayed the stereotypical characteristics.

Beidermeier is also a furniture style:

So a Biedermeier mood would be one of conservatism, complacency. Politically it connotes something like the famous "normalcy" idea of Warren G. Harding's Presidency: calmness, dullness, lack of imagination. I discussed Kurbjuweit's argument a couple of months ago in Angela "Frau Fritz" Merkel and the neoliberal depoliticization of politics: "asymmetrical demobilization" in the German case 06/05/2013. As I translated part of Kurbjuweit's article in that post:

Merkel comes out of consensual school of thinking. The DDR was no place to take confrontation or polarization to be fruitful. The SPD has decreed unity and thereby political peace. Even citizens who were not in the {Communist} Party and viewed the system skeptically, like Merkel, found it difficult later to adjust to the eternal fights in democracy.

Merkel avoids open confrontation where she can. She avoids clear words, polarization and social blueprints that might provoke counter-arguments. She purrs herself through the campaigns and hopes that it will be useful for the Union {her CDU party} if the participation in the election remains low because hardly anyone can get upset about the Federal Chancellor. She expects nothing of anyone, but rather parcels out good deeds to pensioners or families. She dries out the country and spreads powdered sugar over it. ...

And in the coming Bundestag election, Merkel starts with asymmetric demobilization, and that is a scandal.

Klaus Stuttmann provides his own image for Frese's "siesta" and Kurbjuweit's Second Biedermeier in this cartoon:

Caption: "In the stifling heat of the election campaign ..."

But Albrecht Müller challenges this Second Biedermeier image in IGMetall greift in den Wahlkampf ein – mit einem Lob für die Agenda 2010 und „die gute wirtschaftliche Verfassung des Landes“ NachDenkSeiten 03.08.2013, specifically analyzing Alfons Frese's article. Frese is encouraging the union magazine readers to get out and vote and makes a case for Peer Steinbrück and the SPD - although, as Müller notes, a box in his article informs readers that IG Metall isn't making a formal election recommendation, just encouraging people to go vote.

But Müller observes that Frese accepts much of Merkel's framing of the election - not unlike the SPD itself! Frese starts off saying, for instance, that "Deutschland macht Ferien und den meisten von uns geht es gut" ("Germany is on vacation and most of us are doing well.") August is the main vacation month in Germany, which Stuttmann's cartoon also reflects. But, as Müller reminds us, not all Germans are doing so well. There is a lot of un- and underemployment, with many jobs being temporary jobs without the longer-term job security that until not so long ago Germans expected. He also calls attention to this argument of Frese's, "Angela Merkel regiert seit acht Jahren. Ob es einen Zusammenhang gibt zwischen ihrer Regierungskunst und der guten wirtschaftlichen Verfassung des Landes, ist schwer zu klären." ("Angela Merkel has governed for eight year. Whether there is a connection between her art of governance and the good economic situation of the country is hard to determine.") And this is a guy supposedly making an argument against Merkel!

In fact, Germany's economy has fared well in comparison to other nations in the eurozone since 2008. Frese chalks that up in large part to exports to China and what he oddly calls "die extrem niedrigen Zinsen wegen der europäischen Finanz- und Wirtschaftskrise" ("the extremely low interest rates because of the European financial and economic crisis.") In fact, Germany is fairing relatively well right now because of the euro giving them very favorable export prices compared to what they would have with a separate German currency. In a real sense, in the current situation Germany is doing relatively well because southern European countries like Greece, Italy and Spain are doing badly. It could be different. If Merkel had a genuinely European policy, Germany would be running deficits and increasing demand to pull the eurozone out of its overall depression. But that would mean accepting higher inflation in Germany and larger budget deficits, both taboos under Merkel's "ordoliberalism," which is really just a present-day edition of Herbert Hoover/Heinrich Brüning economics. Frese, like Steinbrück and the SPD, are talking around those realities.

And Germany is riding a currency-zone tiger. If the euro falls apart, which it almost certainly will on Merkel's current course, Germany's export prices will jump by 30-40%, their export-oriented economy will be hammered, and they will find themselves having to recapitalize the Bundesbank to the tune of $1 trillion or so related to the "Target 2" euro-linked clearing mechanism.

Müller also criticizes Frese for accepting - again like the SPD more generally and Steinbrück especially - "die Hauptlinie der neoliberalen Ideologie" ("the main line of neoliberal ideology") whereby globalization the aging of the population are said to be the cause of all the economic troubles that they will admit that some Germans are experiencing.

Frese also goes on to criticize one of the actual good things Merkel has done, her decision to phase out nuclear power within Germany completely and switch to a reliance of renewable energy sources like solar power, which is being exploiting extensively in Germany. Müller is also correct in pointing out that Frese seems to be endorsing fracking!

A final example that illustrates from what a weak position the SPD is campaigning for the September elections. Müller: "So beklagt er bei Merkel mit Recht, dass sie mit hunderten von Milliarden Euro Banken rettete. Hat der Mann vergessen, dass Merkel diese enorme Belastung für uns zusammen mit Peer Steinbrück arrangiert hat?" ("So he [Frese] rightly complains that she saved the banks with hundreds of millions of euros. Has the man forgotten that Merkel arranged this enormous burden for us with Peer Steinbrück?") Steinbrück served as Finance Minister from 2005 to 2009 when the SPD was Angie's junior partner in a Grand Coalition government. (A Grand Coalition is a government of the Social Democrats and Christian Democrats.)

You can see why Wolfgang Münchau recently lamented that the euro crisis would easily be the SPD's best election theme. But with Peer Steinbrück as their Chancellor candidate, they have not chance of making that work as their main issue. (Die SPD kämpft die falsche Schlacht Spiegel Online 31.07.2013)

That empty Bidermeier chair, come to think of it, would be an excellent symbol for Steinbrück in this campaign!

Tags: angela merkel, austerity economics, eu, euro, european union, france, peer steinbrück, spd

Greece under Angela Merkel's austerity crunch

Stephan Faris recently reported for Bloomberg Businessweek on the real consequence of German Chancellor Angela "Frau Fritz" Merkel in Greece's Unemployed Young: A Great Depression Steals the Nation's Future By Stephan Faris 07/25/2013:

Jobs of any kind are scarce in today's Greece. Nearly six years of deep recession have swept away a quarter of the country's gross domestic product, the kind of devastation usually seen only in times of war. In a country of 11 million people, the economy lost more than a million jobs as businesses shut their doors or shed staff. Unemployment has reached 27 percent—higher than the U.S. jobless rate during the Great Depression—and is expected to rise to 28 percent next year. Among the young, the figure is twice as high. Meanwhile, cuts to Greece’s bloated public sector are dumping ever more people onto the job market. In July, 25,000 public workers, including teachers, janitors, ministry employees, and municipal police, found out they would face large-scale reshuffling and possible dismissal. An additional 15,000 public workers are slated to lose their jobs by the end of 2014.

Greece's jobs crisis is a window into a wider emergency that threatens the future of Europe. Across the continent, a prolonged slump has disproportionately affected the young, with nearly one in four under the age of 25 out of work, according to the European Commission. (In the U.S., youth unemployment is 16.2 percent.) That understates the severity of the situation in Italy and Portugal, where youth unemployment rates have soared above 35 percent; Spain’s is 53.2 percent, the second-highest after Greece, at 55.3 percent. European Union leaders have announced an initiative aimed at guaranteeing that all young people receive a job, apprenticeship, or more education within four months of joining the ranks of the unemployed. Governments have pledged €8 billion over two years to combat unemployment in Europe’s worst-hit countries, and the European Investment Bank is offering €18 billion in loans to encourage hiring by small and midsize businesses. [my emphasis]

The damage Merkel's austerity policies are doing to Cyprus, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain is staggering.

And Merkel's Germany continues to insist on more and more economically fatal austerity policies, in defiance of basically all real-world experience of macroeconomics. Patrick Donahue reports, also from Bloomberg News (Schaeuble Urges Pressure on Greece to Remain Before Vote 07/29/2013) on German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble's hardline position:

"The pressure remains, so this has nothing to do with the [September German] election schedule," Schaeuble told Deutschlandfunk radio in an interview yesterday. "They’re far from being over the mountain," he said.

As European leaders scramble to plug the hole in Greece’s budget, Germany's political factions are maneuvering into position ahead of a vote eight weeks away as Chancellor Angela Merkel seeks a third term in office. Her challenger, Social Democrat Peer Steinbrueck, yesterday declined to rule out a possible "grand" coalition with Merkel's bloc.

Sadly, Steinbrück and the SPD have actually faithfully backed Merkel's neoliberal austerity policies. The differences they have articulated in the election campaign are basically cosmetic only. And it's hard to believe they would actually insist even on better cosmetics.

Tags: angela merkel, austerity economics, eu, euro, european union, greece, peer steinbrück, spd

Merkel: great politician, or lucky tiger-rider?

Wolfgang Lieb in „Mutter Camouflage“ – Wie Merkel mit der Opposition Hase und Igel spielt NachDenkSeiten 01.08.2013 argues that German Chancellor Angela Merkel can outshine her main opposition, the SPD, because the Sozis (SPD) are so feckless in being so eager to avoid posing clear alternative programs. It allows here to play tortoise-and-hare with them.

I'm not sure that's the best metaphor for what he describes. But his description of Merkel's political success is more realistic than those of her defenders that rely on some more-or-less vague cultural mood that she supposedly promotes. Especially because he focuses on the effects of how the SPD has effectively imploded in the current depression by sticking with the neoliberal faith and nominating one of its most loyal proponents, Peer Steinbrück, as their Chancellor candidate for September's elections. Steinbrück is a strong candidate only for the distinction of being possibly the most pitiful campaigner for the Chancellorship in the history of the SPD.

What Lieb describes is Merkel's focus on what is actually conventional politics. When the SPD and the Greens - who are seated to the right of the SPD in the Bundestag, i.e., they are officially considered more conservative than the SPD - propose an issue like a national minimum wage or affirmative action targets for women and the issue starts to catch on among the public, Angie proposes some similar idea along the same lines and presents it as "sogar als noch besser und durchdachter" (even much better and better thought out) than the SPD-Green proposals.

This is normal politics, of course. If it sounds a little exotic in the context of current American domestic politics, it's because the Republican Party is largely dispensing with normal politics in favor of "fundamental opposition" politics in domestic affairs.

At some level, the measure of a "good politician" is her ability to win elections and accomplish her policy goals. And in that sense, Merkel has shown herself to be a good politician. And she's had some success with the press. Lieb notes that she's gotten the press to talk about the conservative policies of her CDU/CSU as the "social-democratization" of the CDU/CSU. Polls are showing her far above Steinbrück in being more committed to social justice.

This is a reflection of the extent to which the Social Democrats have conservative-ized themselves over the last decade or more. Steinbrück himself is identified with the raising of the retirement age from 65 to 67, a policy enacted under the SPD/CDU/CSU Grand Coalition government headed by Merkel in which Steinbrück was Finance Minister. And he faults Steinbrück and the SPD for, in particular, not offering any substantive alternative to Merkel's eurozone policies.

Mark Schieritz (Wollen Sie uns verschaukeln, Peer Steinbrück? Zeit Herdentrieb 07/31/2013) points to a recent proposal by Steinbrück to combat youth unemployment in the eurozone, which when examined just a bit is basically the same of Merkel's. "Das ist das Grundproblem der SPD: Sie bietet in Wahrheit keine Alternative, aber sie gibt vor, eine zu haben." ("That is the SPD's basic problem: in reality they offer no alternative, but they claim to have one.")

Merkel's euro crisis policy is actually dangerous for Germany. I think Merkel probably knows that she's riding the tiger, that if the eurozone disintegrates, Germany's economy will be hammered by a 30% or more rise in prices, by huge expenses to recapitalize the Bundesbank for losses under the euro-based Target 2 clearing mechanism, and by bank losses from sovereign debt defaults. The IMF is warning now that under the current course of Angie-nomics, Greece in 2020 will still be carrying debt equal to 124% of its GDP. Which means that there is effectively no end in sight under Angie's austerity policies for Greece's depression and the increasingly acute suffering it's bringing there.

But that's the problem. Merkel seems dogmatically committed to "ordoliberalism" economic doctrine. And aside from the obligatory cliches, she is not committed to anything like European solidarity. Her perspective is nationalistic. And she has consistently framed the euro problems in nationalistic terms, for the most part with the support of the SPD and Greens in doing so. So there is no immediate constituency for a drastic course change, even if Merkel were capable herself of pulling one off.

Even if the euro crisis takes another acute turn between now and next month's elections, it's doubtful that the SPD could capitalize on it politically. Steinbrück is too unattractive a candidate. And the SPD has really not been offering any kind of alternative framing to Merkel's nationalistic and austerity-obsessed eurozone policies.

Tags: angela merkel, austerity economics, eu, euro, european union, german politics, peer steinbrück, spd

The German SPD at 150-plus

Die SPD war als Befreiungsbewegung, als Bildungs- und Demokratiebewegung erfolgreich. Sie ist die erste und größte Bürgerinitiative der deutschen Geschichte, sie hat aus Proletariern Bürger gemacht. Die Sozialdemokratie hat Deutschland verändert, auch auf ihren Ideen baut das gesamteuropäische Gesellschaftsmodell. Auf ihren Ideen gründet der Sozialstaat, fußt die gemeinsame Vorstellung davon, dass soziale Ungleichheit nicht gottgegeben ist. Dieser große sozialdemokratische Konsensus fast aller politischen Kräfte nach dem Zweiten Weltkrieg war eine Frucht, die afn Baum der SPD gereift ist.

[The SPD was successful as a freedom movement, as an educational and democratic movement. It is the first and greatest citizens' initiative of German history, it made proletarians into citizens. The Social Democracy changed Germany, and on its ideas the general European social model is constructed. The social state was founded on its ideas, which contained the general concept that social inequality is not God-given. This great social-democratic consensus of nearly all political forces after the Second World War was a fruit that ripened on the tree of the SPD.]

That fulsome praise for the German Social Democratic Party (SPD) on the occasion of its 150th birthday this year is from Heribert Prantl in "Genosse Sisyphos" Süddeutsche Zeitung 18/19/20.05.2013.

But as Prantl implies in that article and in SPD und Sozialistische Internationale: Auf Distanz zur Tradition Süddeutsche Zeitung 23.05.2013, the SPD celebrated the occasion almost as though they were more embarrassed about their history than proud of it. Even their chief opponent in this year national parliamentary elections, Chancellor Angela Merkel who is ruling the eurozone in the grim tradition of Herbert Hoover and the "Hunger Chancellor" Heinrich Brüning, was there in the front run as a special guest at the official event on May 23. The SPD at least had the semblance of dignity not to invite her to speak. But she did offer her praise for service of the SPD to German democracy. Which she should, since the SPD has sheepishly supported her Hoover-Brüning policies. Her first Chancellorship was at the head of a Grand Coalition government with the SPD. The current SPD Chancellor candidate, Peer Steinbrück, uh, distinguished (?) himself as a firm advocate of the Grand Coalition's successful effort to raise the German retirement age from 65 to 67, which his friend Merkel-Brüning recently cynically praised this way:

A person who is 70 today is like a 60-year-old 25 years ago. Aging alone is not a reason for a society to stop being innovative. Fortunately attitudes toward aging are changing. Staying active and life-long learning are becoming increasingly important. Many old people have a great deal of experience to contribute. This was not sufficiently taken into account when early retirement programs came into effect in Germany. Because we want to maintain our standard of living, we decided to extend the retirement age to 67, so that people can work longer than in the past. Many can and want to do so. (Angela Merkel on Europe: 'We Are All in the Same Boat' Spiegel International 06/03/2013)

Steinbrück himself defended that position just last year with a version of the Thatcherite catchword TINA (There Is No Alternative), the hallmark of neoliberal depoliticizing of critical social issues. (Rente mit 67: SPD-Revolte gegen Peer Steinbrücks Rentenpolitik Focus 06.01.2012). According to Steinbrück, mathematics made it necessary: the aging population, blah, blah, the same argument we hear endlessly in America from the Pete Peterson Foundation and its various front groups who would dearly love to privatize Social Security. The EU (read: Merkel) is pushing the rest of the eurozone to adopt the same retrograde, cruel policy.

Albrecht von Lucke wrote earlier this year, "One thing that cannot be said of the SPD Chancellor candidate: that he hasn't done everything to help Angela Merkel attain a third Chancellorship." He is most likely hoping to return the SPD to its role as junior partner in a second Grand Coalition with Merkel to help her preside over the crushing of the southern European countries and the end of the euro. Though ending the euro is neither his intent nor Merkel's. They want to keep the eurozone together because Germany benefits tremendously (at the end of other eurozone members) by the euro being a cheaper currency than a new D-Mark would be and because the end of the euro would leave the Bundesbank holding the bag for hundreds of billions in useless assets under the euro-specific Target 2 clearing mechanism. But saving the euro looks highly improbable with the Hoover-Brüning austerity policies both Merkel and Steinbrück support.

This timidity was reflected in the painfully "safe" history the SPD presented of itself. This DPA article, Mehr als nur die alte Tante: Die deutsche Sozialdemokratie wird 150 Jahre alt Leipziger Volkszeitung 22.05.2013, hits the high points of the SPD's history in a way that probably wouldn't make even Peer Steinbrück uncomfortable. Names like Karl Marx, who was far more influential in the early decades of the SPD than Ferdinand Lasalle who the SPD now celebrates as its founder, and the brutal Gustav Noske, were not much in evidence in the celebratory historical sketches. The Old Aunt ("alte Tante") in the article's title is a good indication of how the SPD is looking these days to a lot of voters. The DPA piece touches on these high points in SPD history:

• Founding of the Allgemeine Deutsch Arbeiterverein (ADAV) by Ferdinand Lasalle on May 23, 1863
• Fight for the 8-hour day
• Bismarck's Anti-Socialist Law of 1878-1890, during which time the SPD grew to become the leading party
• The decades-long party leadership of "Arbeiterkaiser" ("Workers' Emperor") August Bebel
• The SPD's fight for workers' rights, parliamentary democracy and equality for women
• The SPD's split over support of the Kaiser's war effort during the Great War (World War I); the DPA report ludicrously blames the antiwar faction for setting the SPD up as the scapegoats of the postwar stab-in-the-back legend (Dolchstoßlegende)
• Establishment of the Weimar democracy by the SPD
• Winning women's suffrage in Germany
• Providing the first female member of the German parliament in 1919, Marie Juchacz
• The SPD's 1925 call for a United States of Europe, which is seen as one of the milestones on the way to the European Union
• The SPD's last-ditch stand against Hitler's Emergency Law, which gave him dictatorial powers with results that are well known; DPA does note that the forerunners of today's CDU/CSU and FDP parties voted for the emergency Law
• Post-Second World War SPD leader Kurt Schumacher calling Konrad Adenauer the "Chancellor of the Allies"
• The Godesberg Programm of 1959, which DPA notes was a "farewell to Marxist goals" (which the article doesn't previously note that it ever held)
• Anti-Nazi resistance fighter Willy Brandt's Chancellorship and his Ostpolitik of easing relations with the eastern European Communist countries
• Helmut Schmidt and the "German autumn," the most intense period of the terrorism of the RAF (Rote Armee Fraktion)
• SPD Chancellor Gerhard Schröder's neoliberal "Hartz reforms" that weakened workers' security and lowered wages, part of Schröder's Agenda 2010 program, which former Chancellor Schmidt praises in the article as being a wonderful accomplishment

The May 23 celebration was held in Leipzig and the Leipziger Volkszeitung has a webpage collecting a number of articles on the event, SPD Jubiläum in Leipzig.

I have discussed the history of the SPD in various posts here, including:

• Lessons from Weimar Germany? 03/17/2009
• Herbert Marcuse and the end of Utopia (1 of 3) 08/23/2009
• Neoliberalism and center-left politics: Germany 10/02/2012
• A Marx revival? (5 of 5) The archetypal left challenge to Marxism 01/01/2012
• John Kenneth Galbraith's "Age of Uncertainty: Lenin and The Great Ungluing" 05/22/2013

Tags: angela merkel, austerity economics, eu, euro, european union, peer steinbrück, spd

Neoliberalism and center-left politics: Germany

Charlie Pierce's standard epitaph for Rick Santorum is some variation of, "and have I said lately what a colossal dick that guy is?"

I find myself thinking of that when I read about Peer Steinbrück, leader in Germany's Social Democratic Party (SPD) and the most likely SPD candidate for Chancellor in the 2013 election. His most notable accomplishment to date was when he was Chancellor Angela Merkel's Finance Minister during her first Administration when the SPD was the junior partner in a Grand Coalition (Christian Democratic Party [CDU/CSU] and SPD). He successfully championed the raising of the retirement age for pensions from 65 to 67, a truly bad idea.

And this guy is a Social Democrat, the supposed party of the center left.

The fact that his two most likely challengers within the Party, the Party Secretary Sigmar Gabriel and Caucus Lead Frank-Walter Steinmeier, have pretty much shrugged their shoulders at even trying isn't a sign of enthusiasm for Stenbrück in his own party. It's much more a sign of the dangerous level of stagnation within it.

One way to describe the role of center-left parties in the neoliberal scheme of politics and policy is not only to note their role in selling bad, destructive policies like that one to the traditional left constituencies of workers, intellectuals, "middle class" professionals and (some) small business owners. A key aspect of what happens in reality is what we see with the SPD; it moves what we call in American politics the "Overton window" to the right, making the center-left party a de facto center-right party. We see the same process at work in the US, France, Spain and elsewhere.

"Steinbrück ist unter führenden Sozialdemokraten zwar am engsten mit der Wirtschaft verbunden." ("Among leading Social Democrats, Steinbrück is clearly the most closely tied to business leaders.") So write Ulrike Sosalla, et al, in Kanzlerkandidatur: Warum Merkel Steinbrück noch überlegen ist Financial Times Deutschland 30.09.2012. Pretty much a simple corporate whore, in other words.

Is that too strong a characterization? The same article says that when Steinbrück was simply a Member of Parliament, i.e., before he became a minister, he was already charging high prices for "Vorträge, Reden und selbst Interviews" ("presentations, speeches and even interviews"). This is a guy who is focused single-mindedly on using his political position to cash in. Not that such a thing is a new phenomenon. But it's reaching qualitatively new heights in the neoliberal world of today with extremes of wealth and income unseen since the 1920s or even before.

If the Social Democrats of the First World War were known derisively as "the Kaiser's Social Democrats", an SPD led by Steinbrück could well be called the One Percenters' Social Democrats.

Here I feel obliged as always to inject that, yes, there are differences between the main two parties, in Germany as in America, and Angela "Frau Fritz" Merkel is clearly worse than Steinbrück. Of course, in my mind, saying that someone is "better than Angela Merkel" is pretty much the definition of "damning with faint praise."

And Steinbrück is emphasizing positions that distinguish him from Frau Fritz, particularly a demand for tighter regulations on banks. But the SPD is explicitly citing the model of French Socialist François Hollande, who won the French Presidency this year with progressive-sounding promises but barely pretended to fight for them once he was in office. (Peter Ehrlich und Thomas Steinmann, Financial Times Deutschland 30.09.2012) After the Grand Coalition government broke up in 2009, 40% of SPD voters even knew that the very prominent Steinbrück was even affiliated with the SPD! Nothing much in the way of progressive change could be expected from him, even if he became Chancellor.

But he's also still an explicit fan of the Agenda 2010 neoliberal "reforms" enacted by Gerhard Schröder's red-green coalition of 1998-2005, which have resulted in lower pay and reduced job security - and that's in a German economy that has low unemployment thanks to the benefits it gets from the euro currency. He sneers at his fellow Party members who criticize the anti-worker "Hartz IV" aspects of Agenda 2010 and his own disgusting success in raising the retirement age from 65 to 67 as whiners ("Heulsusen").

This center-left neoliberal schtick has got to break down sooner or later, and it's probably sooner. Greece can't be considered a political belweather for the EU. But one notable - and hopeful! - development in Greek politics has been the drop to third-place status of Greece's corporate-whore Social Democratic Party, Pasok, behind now second-place Syriza. Something has to give. As long as there is still a functioning democracy in a country, people are going to find some way to resist corporate abuses, much less the kind of play for oligarchical dominance we see pretty much across the board in advanced countries. At some point, center-left parties whose main function is to enact policies that they win election by opposing become useless to their base voters.

We also have to figure in here the way Germany's multi-party system functions. Since neither the center-right CDU or the (nominally!) center-left SPD can expect to win a majority, though they will almost surely be the two leading vote-getters, as always. So they have to think about their future coalition partners as they campaign. Merkel's current coalition partner is the Free Democratic Party (FPD), the farthest right of the German parties in Parliament. (And they are the "liberal" party! Don't bother trying to translate that into American political terms, you'll just give yourself a headache.) The seemingly political natural coalition partners for the SPD would be the Greens (seated to the right of the SPD in the national Parliament) and the "postcommunist" Left Party.

But a corporate whore like Steinbrück isn't likely to consider a coalition with the Left Party, which in any case hasn't managed to break out of its main identity as an eastern German regional party. A depression would seem an obvious opportunity for them. But we also have to keep in mind that Germany as yet hasn't felt the depression as severely as most European countries or even the United States. Merkel is about as business-friendly as it comes on economic policies, bringing the EU to the brink of destruction in pursuit of them. But there is bad blood between her and the nuclear power industry going back to her time as Environmental Minister, and she committed to phasing out nuclear power in Germany completely in preference to renewable wind and solar power after the Fukushima disaster, so she's neutralized some of the Greens' still-potent environmental appeal. And the Greens themselves have blunteded their peace appeal by their foolish, hard-necked support of German participation in the Afghanistan War.

All of this adds up to a conventional wisdom, which is actually pretty reasonable as far as it goes, that a new Grand Coalition lead by Merkel with the SPD as the junior partner is the most likely outcome of the 2013 election. Which means that Steinbrück will be careful not to ruffle Merkel's feathers too much during the campaign.

Given the state of the euro crisis, this is a sad picture of failure of the German political elite to grasp what a serious problem Merkel has created by her disastrous handling of the crisis. The commitment to the euro, and more generally to the neoliberal concept of the EU as primarily an instrument to force the neoliberal menu of low wages, weak unions, financial and industrial deregulation, reduced job security, privatization and continuing reductions of social insurance and public services onto unwilling electorates, is currently the driving force in what is essentially a de-politicization of politics in Germany. There has been little show of solidarity or concern for keeping peace and democracy as central focuses of the "European project" on behalf of either the SPD or CDU the last three years, especially.

Effectively, it leaves both parties tied to Angela Merkel's European policy. Leaving a truly unprecedented show of far-sighted statesmanship on Merkel's part as the main hope of the euro and the EU surviving in anything like their current form.

Tags: angela merkel, austerity economics, eu, euro, european union, neoliberalism, germany, peer steinbrück